Recession is here

[icelolly12]

With the rising prices, hiked interest rates, closures of shops now Wilko, plus in my area many local restaurants and cafes that had been open for years have recently announced they're having to close... I'm pretty sure we're in a recession and that it's going to get worse. Is anyone else feeling the same? Everybody in real life is acting as if everything is perfectly fine.

Yeah I’m terrified. We were trying to buy a house but we’re abandoning that for now. Rates are horrific and our rent is cheap.
Everything costs so so much money.

We’re not though, and the Bank of England just said in today’s press conference they no longer expect one either. Inflation is falling, we’re close to the top of the interest rate rising cycle and longer term, market fixed rates are falling, energy prices are falling, I think we’re over the worst of it.

We're not in recession are we?

No, we’re not.

There's a specific definition for recession and we're not currently in one.

In the UK, it’s defined as two consecutive three-month periods of GDP falling, which hasn’t happened and isn’t forecast to.

Recession because Wilkos is closing 😂

I know there's an official definition, but I can also see what's around me and can't see how we're not in one despite what the stats say. There's no way we're "over the worst of it" the fallout from the interest hikes hasn't had chance to fully impact yet.

I agree with you OP, whilst we might not technically be in a recession it feels like one. Millions of people will have their mortgages up for renewal soon, with huge increases. Once they stop spending on niceties there'll be more shops and services closing, more job losses, less spending, it'll go on and on.

We're not in a recession but we will be having an about turn on discretionary spending. For 15 years we were told to spend, spend, spend and now that is going to stop abruptly.

It’s not.

We are not in recession. It's also unlikely at the moment

yes things are shit for some, but Wilko is a victim on online shopping and the demise of the high street, not the economy per se.

I can't say I've noticed it tbh, apart from in the news.

And just generally being pretty shit. Ours barely has any stock compared to its main rivals, B&M and Home Bargains.

@icelolly12 - you are both, right and wrong about an recession.

Obviously we haven't reached the official definition. But contrary to official garbage I haven't seen anything that indicates a drop in prices. Or a raise in wages.

I even go so far as to say that recruitment has stagnated. (At least in our area, there are less jobs advertised and a lot at NMW or temporary.)
Fuel prices dropped slightly a few weeks back but is slowly creeping up again.
I pay less for gas & electricity: because it's summer!
My food shop is also creeping up (I buy pretty much the same things week in week out). Find me a decent lettuce or tomatoes for under £1.-!!! (They are in season and should be cheap)

We are doing less paid summer holiday activities, because of the eye-watering prices- compared to last year.

People definitely have less money to spend and the GDP will drop in the next few months. I assume shops and leisure industries will hope for a bumper Christmas in order to survive.

I think the fact that so many people on are fixed rates and they might’ have two years or more left is one of the main reason we aren’t in a full recession

it’s sort of staggered rather than everyone on a variable rate like in the 90s so everyone felt the interest rate rise at the same time

But we are not in recession, yet.

It's a very defined term.

You can say it feels like one but that is still not the same as actually being one.

I guess what I mean is... it's round the corner and the warning signs are here.

I'm pretty sure we're in a recession

Those were your words in your post OP

Now you are saying it's 'round the corner'

Make your mind up! It sounds like you don't really know what you're talking about and just like the sound of it in a post on mumsnet..

I think you should read today’s BoE monetary policy report.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2023/august-2023#:~:text=At%20its%20meeting%20ending%20on,maintain%20Bank%20Rate%20at%205%25.

I think your outlook on the economy depends hugely on where in the UK you live. I live in gentrifying East London and it all feels pretty fine - some shops/cafes closing but others opening to take their place (though personally we are really feeling the pinch).

But my other half travels around the country and says that things are getting visibly worse on every measure - the state and safety of public and cheap private housing, commercial centres boarded up, youths/druggies hanging round scoping people to mug (or at least looking that way.) He's a bit of a bellweather because he goes to lots of places that haven't been thriving for 50+ years and are now always marginal - ie they will always be somewhere between scraping by, going downhill, or 'briefly benefitting from a small injection of cash that won't really make a longterm difference.' The North East particularly.

According to gov.uk Repossessions are up for the first Quarter of the year by 23% and Orders for Possession by 36%. Details here.

The recession is here and it's diabolical.

No, we're not in recession. It's expected the next meeting with the BofE, in 6 weeks, will be another rate increase, but they should peak at about 6% by the new year.

Thry are not expected to go higher or lower after that, for a long time.

Whether inflation drops, and whether we go into recession, remains to be seen.

Thing is most people are used to the low interest rates we have had for the last few years , that was not really a normal situation

I recently read that only 30% of homeowners have a mortgage, that is quite a lot less than I thought it would be.