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Original poster

Recession is here

110 replies

icelolly12 · 03/08/2023 14:50

With the rising prices, hiked interest rates, closures of shops now Wilko, plus in my area many local restaurants and cafes that had been open for years have recently announced they're having to close... I'm pretty sure we're in a recession and that it's going to get worse. Is anyone else feeling the same? Everybody in real life is acting as if everything is perfectly fine.

OP posts:
Notveryanything · 03/08/2023 17:48

It doesn't feel like that to me.

I am not rolling in money but there's definitely a lot of spending going on.

I had to book tables at 2 restaurants in the same town this week - neither cheap- and they had trouble squeezing the bookings in and I am finding that happens frequently.

People are buying holidays, entertainment etc. Not everyone obviously, but there's never a time when 'everyone' can afford everything.

topnoddy · 03/08/2023 17:50

SilverGlitterBaubles · 03/08/2023 17:46

I recently read that only 30% of homeowners have a mortgage, that is quite a lot less than I thought it would be.

That's because it's the wrong way round !

31/33% of home owners are mortgage free depending on what figures you believe

FearTheWankingDead · 03/08/2023 17:52

It might not be specifically defined as a recession but it’s a fucking mess. And it will get worse.

edwinbear · 03/08/2023 18:02

I’ve just got back from a two day trip to Manchester, visiting clients. I went out for a quick dinner last night with the colleague I was travelling with and could not believe how heaving the place was - on a Wednesday night.

The clients I was visiting, and those I speak to on a day to day basis, are doing OK. Costs are up, but nothing insurmountable, they are generally pretty optimistic. Very different from the sentiment in 2007/2008.

tootallfortheshelf · 03/08/2023 18:03

FearTheWankingDead · 03/08/2023 17:52

It might not be specifically defined as a recession but it’s a fucking mess. And it will get worse.

agree, might not fit the official definition of recession ( as determined by those in power who work everything to their advantage & benefit ) but it looks and feels pretty damn fubar to me

Blackbyrd · 03/08/2023 18:03

People are allowed to word things clumsily for those jumping on the OP. I travel a lot along the South Coast and you can literally see places succumbing yet again to anti social behaviours, litter , shuttered buildings etc. Yobs running riot, destroying any ambience a place may have had at night. Several councils have warned that the cost of emergency accommodation will lead to bankruptcy (so maybe filling all those seaside hotels with people now being granted refugee status wasn't properly thought out by the Home Office?) and their budgetary constraints are seriously showing and so business rates rise again adding to the pressure on businesses

So yes, despite the convenient statistics I would say that we are certainly pre recession if not stagflation. There never were the endless job adverts much lauded in the press, just exploitative ZHC, agency and care work. The gap between the smugs and the have nots is seriously widening and it's hard to have any confidence in the current Government to turn things around quickly. But hey, I guess we can all go deliver pizzas

tootallfortheshelf · 03/08/2023 18:05

The gap between the smugs and the have nots
I like your phrasing here @Blackbyrd

Jackydaytona · 03/08/2023 18:06

I think it's all got a very 1920s Berlin bright young things vibe tbh

Which, as any student of history will tell you...is not good

CloudyMcCloud · 03/08/2023 18:09

edwinbear · 03/08/2023 15:07

We’re not though, and the Bank of England just said in today’s press conference they no longer expect one either. Inflation is falling, we’re close to the top of the interest rate rising cycle and longer term, market fixed rates are falling, energy prices are falling, I think we’re over the worst of it.

I’m glad to see facts. The thread title is misleading.

tootallfortheshelf · 03/08/2023 18:09

I guess we can all go deliver pizzas
and that cunt can go fuck himself sideways with a bicycle, I enjoy cycling, but no way am I going to risk my neck being a fucking bicycle courier at my age, stupid cunt, you first mate you fat prick

Ofcourseit · 03/08/2023 18:12

Jackydaytona · 03/08/2023 18:06

I think it's all got a very 1920s Berlin bright young things vibe tbh

Which, as any student of history will tell you...is not good

I've googled but can't find much about this. What do you mean? Thanks

anniegun · 03/08/2023 18:15

The problem is that the BOE and Government want to reduce inflation by reducing demand. They achieve this by high interest rates which reduces disposable income and hence there is less spending. However because people with mortgages are a minority (30%) to be effective the drop in spending has to be much greater than if disposable income was reduced in another way such as taxes where the pain could be spread more widely. So Rishi wants you (as a mortgage payer ) to really suffer so people like him (with savings that now get a better rate of interest) do not lose out

VisionsOfSplendour · 03/08/2023 18:15

icelolly12 · 03/08/2023 16:53

I guess what I mean is... it's round the corner and the warning signs are here.

Do you have an explanation for why the BoE governor and others don't see what you can see?

Blackbyrd · 03/08/2023 18:16

@tootallfortheshelf and I equally like yours

BunnyBetChetwynnd · 03/08/2023 18:18

DontBeAPrickDarren · 03/08/2023 15:26

And just generally being pretty shit. Ours barely has any stock compared to its main rivals, B&M and Home Bargains.

Show quote history

Wilkos used to be great for homewares. Lots of good designs and decent quality for the price. It's gone from that to like a badly stocked pound store only more expensive. The last one I went in looked like locusts had stripped the shelves and dropped litter on the way out.

ohtobeme · 03/08/2023 18:21

anniegun · 03/08/2023 18:15

The problem is that the BOE and Government want to reduce inflation by reducing demand. They achieve this by high interest rates which reduces disposable income and hence there is less spending. However because people with mortgages are a minority (30%) to be effective the drop in spending has to be much greater than if disposable income was reduced in another way such as taxes where the pain could be spread more widely. So Rishi wants you (as a mortgage payer ) to really suffer so people like him (with savings that now get a better rate of interest) do not lose out

Trust me ordinary people with savings are also suffering as ghe rate you get on savings is way lower than inflation

Your every year your savings are worth less and less - tough if that how you would like to fund retirement

CloudyMcCloud · 03/08/2023 18:23

anniegun · 03/08/2023 18:15

The problem is that the BOE and Government want to reduce inflation by reducing demand. They achieve this by high interest rates which reduces disposable income and hence there is less spending. However because people with mortgages are a minority (30%) to be effective the drop in spending has to be much greater than if disposable income was reduced in another way such as taxes where the pain could be spread more widely. So Rishi wants you (as a mortgage payer ) to really suffer so people like him (with savings that now get a better rate of interest) do not lose out

such as taxes where the pain could be spread more widely

tbh loads who don’t have a mortgage wouldn’t want this either. Plus it’s easier to put interest rates up and down than it is taxes.

tootallfortheshelf · 03/08/2023 18:24

Blackbyrd · 03/08/2023 18:16

@tootallfortheshelf and I equally like yours

thanks, although I take back what I said about Mel Stride, I googled him and he's not all that fat, merely podgy really!

Jackydaytona · 03/08/2023 18:25

Ofcourseit · 03/08/2023 18:12

I've googled but can't find much about this. What do you mean? Thanks

Show quote history

If you look for articles on 1920s Post ww1 society you will - sadly - see many similarities between then and now.

Just to name a few;
Isolationist government policy (Brexshit)
War in eueope (Ukraine)
Recession/cost of living crisis
Venal, self serving politicians
Strikes

Obviously, its a lot more complex than that, but the "bright young things" of Waughs novel are the modern equivalent of the Kardashians and other SM "celebrities" imo

Zebedee55 · 03/08/2023 18:27

BunnyBetChetwynnd · 03/08/2023 18:18

Wilkos used to be great for homewares. Lots of good designs and decent quality for the price. It's gone from that to like a badly stocked pound store only more expensive. The last one I went in looked like locusts had stripped the shelves and dropped litter on the way out.

Show quote history

Probably because Wilkos is on the verge of collapse:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/03/budget-retailer-wilko-makes-administration-move-risking-12000-jobs

Budget retailer Wilko on brink of collapse, with 12,000 jobs at risk

Household goods chain with 400 stores prepares to appoint administrators

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/03/budget-retailer-wilko-makes-administration-move-risking-12000-jobs

Jackydaytona · 03/08/2023 18:29

Anecdotally, locally there is still money being spent...

Bars and restaurants are busy, many people going abroad, house improvements...

There is still plenty if money about thanks to savings made during covid lockdowns and the move to wfh

I suppose the crunch will be when that cash runs out/current mortgage fixed rates end/energy prices go up/food inflation...

ohtobeme · 03/08/2023 18:30

Mortgage free
Yes I do think raising taxes in a fair way would be sensible
But I am as usual in a minority

CloudyMcCloud · 03/08/2023 18:32

Zebedee55 · 03/08/2023 18:27

Show quote history

I can’t say I’ve been in a Wilko or a Dunelm for that matter but I assume they are similar?

Dunelm is doing fine so maybe it’s a Wilko issue - Dunelm Q1 sales rose by 6.1% for the 13 weeks ending 1 April 2023

Iwasafool · 03/08/2023 18:32

I live in a seaside town in the south west. On Monday DH said let's go and get fish and chips. I said he was mad, school holidays the queue will be very long but he wanted his chips so off we went. There were three young women behind the counter and we were the only customers.

In school holiday a few years ago I'd have phoned an order in so I wouldn't have to wait in the long queue, lots of people heading back to caravans and tents would stop there as it was in an ideal location for people leaving the beach and heading to the holiday sites. I can't see it staying open for much longer if that is how business is at this time of year.

In our little parade of shops we have already lost a bakery, a deli, a flower shop. I think the writing is on the wall for the fish and chip shop and the pharmacy might be next. It will leave us with a convenience store and a charity shop.

ScaredSceptic · 03/08/2023 18:32

icelolly12 · 03/08/2023 16:53

I guess what I mean is... it's round the corner and the warning signs are here.

I know what you mean OP. I live near a small highly regarded market town in North Yorkshire which is very popular with tourists as well as serving the local population.

Over the last few days six different long-standing and well regarded businesses have announced they are closing down, most stating they can't go on due to cost increases. Some retail, some hospitality.

It is very worrying.