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Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

998 replies

MagicFox · 06/06/2023 13:13

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
Thread gallery
161
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/06/2023 14:42

Live: Ukraine Media

The United States and China reported on the results of talks between top diplomats:

🔸 Blinken noted that the United States will continue to promote its vision of a free and open world and support a rules-based international order. The Secretary of State invited his counterpart to Washington, and they agreed to schedule a visit on a date that would be convenient for both sides.

🔸 Chinese counterpart Qin Gang expressed his regret to Blinken that US-China relations are "at their worst level ever", as it is not beneficial to both sides and the world.

🔸 The Chinese top diplomat recalled Beijing's position on Taiwan and noted that this is "the most important issue in the relationship and the most obvious risk."

🔸 They also confirmed the agreement to schedule a visit to Washington.

🔸 Both communiqués do not directly mention Ukraine

Zelensky: Not a single Patriot has been destroyed in Ukraine

The former owner of Chelsea, Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, refuses to sign an agreement on the transfer of funds from the sale of the football club to Ukraine. It is about £2.3 billion.
Abramovich wants part of the money to go to the victims from Russia, but the British government and the European Commission are against it.

Russian media report that a car carrying Volodymyr Epifanov, who was appointed by the occupiers as an assistant to the "deputy prime minister" of Zaporizhzhia region, exploded in Simferopol. He, his bodyguard and secretary were hospitalized with burns. According to preliminary data, a gas cylinder exploded.

The Ukrainian prisoners of war handed over by Russia to Hungary are still there, and the prospects for their return to Ukraine are uncertain, said Ivan Angelin, an adviser to the Commissioner for Persons Missing in Special Circumstances.

Peskov says Russian occupiers will not allow UN representatives to visit left bank of Kherson region flooded after Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant explosion because it is "difficult to guarantee security"

The SBU detained an employee of Ukrzaliznytsia who turned out to be a Russian agent.
The resident of Pavlohrad was recruited in early 2023. He was an employee of a local station and passed on to the Russians the routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment involved in the counteroffensive. The agent also planned to blow up a railway in Dnipropetrovs'k region. He faces life imprisonment for high treason.

Ukraine has not received (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/world/europe/ukraine-weapons-howitzers-contracts.html) some of the weapons it paid for, and some donated weapons are only good for spare parts - NYT, citing sources and official documents of the Ukrainian government.
The publication notes that problems are inevitable in a large-scale procurement like Ukraine's.
The NYT cites Italy's delivery of 33 howitzers as an example. According to the video, smoke was coming out of the engine of one of them, and coolant was leaking from the other.
It is noted that Ukrainian officials have mostly refrained from complaining about faulty equipment in order not to embarrass their suppliers.

Yesterday, the Danish defense minister said his country is ready to provide F-16s if the United States approves it. We are excited to add to this list.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/06/2023 15:20

From the Financial Times, but I don't have access to it myself:

UN pushes EU to help fund Ukraine’s postwar clean-up
https://www.ft.com/content/5d9c1751-ce62-4f65-9a3d-8f637c792fb1
Environmental destruction includes burnt forests, debris and spike in carbon emissions

BlackRock and JPMorgan help set up Ukraine reconstruction bank
https://www.ft.com/content/3d6041fb-5747-4564-9874-691742aa52a2
Fund aims to attract billions of dollars in private investment to assist rebuilding projects in war-torn country

Why Nato wants a plan, but not a date, for Ukraine’s membership bid
https://www.ft.com/content/b7fa8854-3e44-44d2-baad-5d92e403ec1d

Lockheed ready to train Ukrainian pilots if Nato allies send F-16s to Kyiv
https://www.ft.com/content/0c7bc222-f1cd-4751-8ff3-a7227d6863e5
Largest US defence contractor aims to expand its international supplier base, says chief operating officer Frank St John

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

https://www.ft.com/content/5d9c1751-ce62-4f65-9a3d-8f637c792fb1

MagicFox · 19/06/2023 15:40

The readouts from the China-US diplomatic meeting suggest they discussed cooperation on broader geopolitical matters though nothing explicit is mentioned. Hope this is a sign that some useful discussion with something behind it has taken place rather than meaningless waffle. But I guess we'll never know

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 19/06/2023 15:45

MagicFox · 19/06/2023 15:40

The readouts from the China-US diplomatic meeting suggest they discussed cooperation on broader geopolitical matters though nothing explicit is mentioned. Hope this is a sign that some useful discussion with something behind it has taken place rather than meaningless waffle. But I guess we'll never know

Frankly any open dialogue between China and the U.S. at those levels is positive, an open dialogue is what prevents accidental conflict and escalation.

notimagain · 19/06/2023 15:46

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 13:25

It is to our great shame that Ukraine are attempting this without air cover

Easily said,but you need to start by defining what you mean by "air cover" and then list what assets we (the west/NATO) would need to put in theatre to achieve it.

MagicFox · 19/06/2023 15:46

Yes quite, but this was in addition to open channels of communication - a broader acknowledgement on the need to engage re transnational issues

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 19/06/2023 15:50

Just looking at the readout I'm concerned by this bit "One of the key issues that did not get resolved was that of restoring military-to-military communications between the US and China. Contacts between the country’s top military officials remain frozen, and two recent incidents have raised concerns that the fraught relationship could veer into conflict" - seems fairly crucial to unlock.

MagicFox · 19/06/2023 15:51

Hmmmm...yes it's actually all a bit contradictory

OP posts:
Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 16:01

notimagain · 19/06/2023 15:46

Easily said,but you need to start by defining what you mean by "air cover" and then list what assets we (the west/NATO) would need to put in theatre to achieve it.

It's the constant drip feed that frustrates me.

We won't send tanks...we sent tanks
We won't send long range missiles...we sent long range missiles.
We won't send F-16s...we will and have just started training pilots and ground crew but too late to help those dying in this offensive.

notimagain · 19/06/2023 16:28

It's the constant drip feed that frustrates me.

I do accept that, and yes it's frustrating.

I'd be pretty sure that behind the scenes at least some plans were being made to send any tanks, aircraft etc, that could be spared from day one...but at times it may have been handy to give the impression that no decision has been made.

I also know some commenting in the media have at times given a misleading impression of how much "spare" materiel the west has in stock, and also how long it takes to get to any major re-equipment programme through from inception to fruition.

MissConductUS · 19/06/2023 16:45

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 16:01

It's the constant drip feed that frustrates me.

We won't send tanks...we sent tanks
We won't send long range missiles...we sent long range missiles.
We won't send F-16s...we will and have just started training pilots and ground crew but too late to help those dying in this offensive.

The preparatory air phase of a ground campaign like this isn't done primarily with multi-role fighters like the F-16. It employs large strategic bombers (once air defenses are suppressed or eliminated) like the B-52 or B-1 dropping large numbers of heavy bombs to destroy defensive works and clear minefields.

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 17:58

MissConductUS · 19/06/2023 16:45

The preparatory air phase of a ground campaign like this isn't done primarily with multi-role fighters like the F-16. It employs large strategic bombers (once air defenses are suppressed or eliminated) like the B-52 or B-1 dropping large numbers of heavy bombs to destroy defensive works and clear minefields.

Yes that makes sense (a couple of B1-Bs fly over low here every so often) but if I understand correctly Ukrainian armour is vulnerable to Su-35s and they have nothing that can realistically stand against them toe to toe

notimagain · 19/06/2023 18:10

FWIW there's an article here about the B-1 doing Close Air Support ......(hope the link works)

But as you rightly say @MissConductUS for them to operate in that role you really have to make sure the enemy doesn't have meaningful Air Defence (e.g. Afghanistan) or that enemy Air Defences are well and truly suppressed

https://breakingdefense.com/2014/05/sen-mccain-b-1s-really-do-cas/

Sen. McCain: B-1s Really Do CAS!

Congress usually does not like it when the military decides to retire a weapon system. A fleet of planes like the A-10 or the U-2, or ships like Ticonderoga cruisers or, for that matter, a military base are all centers of jobs. And Congress doesn’t lik...

https://breakingdefense.com/2014/05/sen-mccain-b-1s-really-do-cas

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 18:25

@MissConductUS yes, we had B-52s earlier in the year but a couple of weeks ago is the first time I've seen B1-Bs. A very impressive sight and the sound is amazing.
The local FB page always gets animated, mostly quite affectionately when we get a flyover

MissConductUS · 19/06/2023 20:40

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 18:25

@MissConductUS yes, we had B-52s earlier in the year but a couple of weeks ago is the first time I've seen B1-Bs. A very impressive sight and the sound is amazing.
The local FB page always gets animated, mostly quite affectionately when we get a flyover

Is it RAF Fairford?

I'm not that far from a New York Air National Guard base that's the home of the 105th Airlift Wing. A lot of the heavy lift cargo flights carrying kit to Ukraine are flying from there to Poland. People closer than I have gotten a bit grumpy on FB about the noise.

Home of the 105th Airlift Wing

https://www.105aw.ang.af.mil

Chatillon · 19/06/2023 20:58

notimagain · 19/06/2023 15:46

Easily said,but you need to start by defining what you mean by "air cover" and then list what assets we (the west/NATO) would need to put in theatre to achieve it.

Couldn't you do that though? With your experience at least give us a steer?

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 21:02

MissConductUS · 19/06/2023 20:40

Is it RAF Fairford?

I'm not that far from a New York Air National Guard base that's the home of the 105th Airlift Wing. A lot of the heavy lift cargo flights carrying kit to Ukraine are flying from there to Poland. People closer than I have gotten a bit grumpy on FB about the noise.

Yes im not that close but on a hill on their flight path so they're quite low as pass over.

They're too infrequent for people to get fed up but a few years ago we did have 3 B-52s go over in close succession that had a few people running for cover 😂

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 21:04

This old lady went over 2 weeks ago

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
DdraigGoch · 19/06/2023 21:44

notimagain · 19/06/2023 16:28

It's the constant drip feed that frustrates me.

I do accept that, and yes it's frustrating.

I'd be pretty sure that behind the scenes at least some plans were being made to send any tanks, aircraft etc, that could be spared from day one...but at times it may have been handy to give the impression that no decision has been made.

I also know some commenting in the media have at times given a misleading impression of how much "spare" materiel the west has in stock, and also how long it takes to get to any major re-equipment programme through from inception to fruition.

I think part of it is that they have been cautiously prodding to see how far the West can push Russia. Now that it's pretty clear that Putin wouldn't dare openly retaliate against NATO members we can (and should) push much harder.

notimagain · 19/06/2023 21:50

Chatillon · 19/06/2023 20:58

Couldn't you do that though? With your experience at least give us a steer?

At the bottom end of the scale "air cover" might mean what hopefully is going to be provided: an unknown number of F-16s and/or other similar generation fighters that (with AMRAAM) that should provide improved air cover in the form of air defence, and (with e.g. HARM) might to some degree supress enemy air defences for long enough an a local level to allow some degree of Close Air Support by other fighters for some of the ground operations.

OTOH if by "air cover" people mean full blown "shock and awe" style support of ground operations to NATO standard what is then required is a very long list of assets: ISTAR ( intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) platforms such as AWACS, possibly tanker support, and then modern aircraft various, lots of, to supress enemy air defences and to actually perform Close Air Support itself and Interdiction.

Now I think many would like that second option but realistically that is only going to happen if NATO directly enters the conflict....and there's the problem.

Chatillon · 19/06/2023 22:04

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 21:04

This old lady went over 2 weeks ago

A dambuster might not be quite right at the moment.

MissConductUS · 19/06/2023 23:12

Surplus2requirements · 19/06/2023 21:04

This old lady went over 2 weeks ago

Is that a Lancaster?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/06/2023 23:18

Chatillon · 19/06/2023 22:04

A dambuster might not be quite right at the moment.

lol

ItsReallyAwright · 19/06/2023 23:20

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