Why are we on a steady downward decline

[Neverknowno]

What is the root cause of the UK’s downward slide? What is behind the low productivity?

Is it because we do not tax high earners enough to fund public services? Or are our taxes too high?

Is it because of the increasing number of the workforce going permanently off ill?

It's because we never stop bloody whinging

Brexit is responsibility for a lot of it.
Combined with terrible management of the pandemic.
Oh, and 13 years of tories…

Or is it because you can only ride exploitation of other countries, peoples, and their resources so far?

And only ride on the back of the Victorian innovation and infrastructure for so long?

Partly because we mostly export services, not manufactured goods although the UK does have a decent but declining high end manufacturing base, and leaving the EU has made all of this much more complicated.

The UK is being phased out of collaborative science research and development.

So people are moving.
Investment is decreasing.

This is the beginnings of real life "project fear".

God I wish we had envisioned this before we settled with kids we would be in Europe now somewhere, too late for us, unfortunately, not too late for our kids. They are leaving somehow.

I could write an essay on this.

But trying to get some investment across the line over the next few days. I may come back to this thread or the 100's of others that will arise over next 18 months. December 2024 is the latest at which a General Election will be called. Whoever wins in the UK will have marginal impact. Only two countries will shape the world and that is USA and China. Everyone else will be reactionary.

Top 3 takeaways from me for now:

1. 25 or so years of GLOBAL cheap money and low inflation started around 1995. That ended when Covid CAUSED disruption in the established supply chains. These have encouraged disruptive social, economic and political differences across the world. No country is totally immune. But some countries are stronger that others and get stronger quicker. We have lost our immediate trading partner in the EU. By the time we are back to the productive levels we were, the EU will have gained 15 years on us and so even then we have 15 years to go at whatever turbo charged pace we can muster. In the meantime Dublin and Luxembourg and New York will continue to attract top talent and company listings, the UK as the respected peers of Capital Allocation will lose its crown.
2. Over that period the UK has been one of the top sources of inward capital investment. That is something for a small island to have been No 5, when we have significantly less natural resources and the fact that our manufacturing exports have been in decline. We have a reputation for training and biotech, but often it is rich foreign nationals who get the best resources and then they take them away. A gulf state private equity fund will have invested $1bn in a PFI initiative to collect bins and maintain street lights for 15 years in a couple of regional boroughs, which looked a good deal (all that money upfront), but paid them interest at 12% and they have had their money back in spades but we still have to keep paying. And the bill goes up. Our interest cost is £3,500 per household per annum against a debt of £80,000 per household. Meanwhile Mr and Mrs Jones in Acacia Gardens have a monetary windfall - inheritance, tax rebate, bonus - and decide to invest it 12 Station Road letting it as a HMO to maximise their income. Except there is no real investment into the UK - money decants from many tenants into the Jones' bank account and no net growth is added to the UK economy. Now we will have to borrow more in 2055 - 2085 because projections show housing benefit is rising against the cost of the state pension. This is where tax figures - everyone should be asking why in real terms their taxes have increased but public services have decreased. The delta is as above.
3. There is no leadership. Leaders worry too much about their image or the Net Present Value of their book rights, pension funding or how to get some private capital out of the next crisis. Respect has gone. We need Warriors but do not have any.

What is behind the low productivity?

Low interest rates & QE, no investment by gov & shit wages

Is it because we do not tax high earners enough to fund public services? Or are our taxes too high?

Income is tax too high.

You pay the higher rate of tax above 52k today which is the equivalent to 29k in 2000. Crazy!

throw in Brexit & ageing population & we are fucked!

everyone should be asking why in real terms their taxes have increased but public services have decreased.

this

Lack of investment in anything / everything.

I think some of it is related to the internet/digital communication and the way that it's disrupted existing power structures. Obviously that's not just a UK thing!
Agree that we dont have good leaders.

We rode on the coat tails of imperialism and the slave trade for a long time - hence a slow downwards trajectory (and one that was right and fair)

Then we all thought it would be fun to speed things up by hurling ourselves off the brexit cliff.

Three reasons: 1. Brexit. 2. Brexit. 3. Brexit.

Not to worry, the climate is officially fucked bow, and AI will soon take over the world.

Mismanagement
Greed
No proper investment and forward thinking/planning for the future.

The country's run by thick, mediocre sociopaths.
The general population are exhausted and depressed due to the pressures of everyday life and failing infrastructure.
We're becoming overcrowded and have a sick and ageing population.

This is silly- of course you can move when you have kids. You’re going to stay ‘stuck’ in the UK while they move away and live miles away forever?

There are huge issues in the UK. There are huge issues in lots of places including places we often look to as being much better (Canada, Australia etc). Things are hard everyone at the moment.

In the Productivity League tables, UK isn't that bad. Not at all.
So the doom & gloom thing about productivity is bizarre.
Fair enough to say that UK used to be higher on the productivity League table.

The places doing better than UK (for productivity) seem to have these features:

Vibrant financial services sector that is highly integrated into world economy
A LOT of external (foreign) investment
Stable technocratic government
(so basically completely not Trussonomics so far)

Good trade deals with neighbours
Immigration policies that encourage high immigration of skilled labour /&-OR/ rely on unpleasant conditions for temporary visa labourers (looking at you, Singapore)
High rankings in PISA league tables (well educated populace)

So you can decide for yourself in which of those areas UK has struggled, since, oh, about 2016.

1. Tories 2. Tories. 3. Tories 4. Tories 5. Tories.

We are losing some brilliant people because of the ‘anti foreigner’ vibe combined with shit public services. brexit was this county’s biggest own goal in recent history. I was speaking to someone who is highly education doing a skilled job who says she’s had enough and is off to another European country She can because she’s still mobile as she has an EU passport. I suspect there are thousands like her. At the other end of the scale we can’t fill the lower paid jobs.

Basically Brexit

You need to account for the fact that the decline has been happening since the empire decided to implode. That, I think, was before Brexit.

Y'all need to look past this "Brexit is the reason" and see it as a symptom.

Is it because we do not tax high earners enough to fund public services?

The small bits of decline we see around us everyday are not because of how much tax we pay but how the Tories choose to spend it. 12 years of under funding of local government has resulted in a worse quality of life......see closing swimming pools, run down parks, closing libraries.

The wider decline is a result of a lack of investment in anything from education to housing to business and beyond.

Also, covid made many people realise that there is a world out there beyond being a cog in an economic wheel which serves only to make a few people very rich. Droves of people have had enough and aren't willing to play any more.

Tory mismanagement
Tory theft/redirection of taxes into their or their mates pockets
Tory led employer exploitation of the workers
Infrastructure owned by foreign countries with no interest in reinvesting

Succinctly put, @L1ttledrummergirl .

Yeah, this. UK seems to think it's still a big player, it isn't.