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Original poster

Why are we on a steady downward decline

257 replies

Neverknowno · 18/05/2023 20:07

What is the root cause of the UK’s downward slide? What is behind the low productivity?

Is it because we do not tax high earners enough to fund public services? Or are our taxes too high?

Is it because of the increasing number of the workforce going permanently off ill?

OP posts:
frozendaisy · 18/05/2023 23:34

We have a new King and a new quiche. Do you reckon that helps?

Parsley1234 · 18/05/2023 23:37

@loria thank you 😊

Loria · 18/05/2023 23:39

Liebig · 18/05/2023 23:33

Working as the neoliberal god intended. What a wonderful system.

Show quote history

It is wonderfully complete, true!

Interested in this thread?

Then you might like threads about this subject:

Cost of living
wincarwoo · 18/05/2023 23:41

WuTangGran · 18/05/2023 21:48

  1. Tories 2. Tories. 3. Tories 4. Tories 5. Tories.

It's immigration isn't it?

CuriouslyDifferent · 18/05/2023 23:42

Chatillon · 18/05/2023 21:02

I could write an essay on this.

But trying to get some investment across the line over the next few days. I may come back to this thread or the 100's of others that will arise over next 18 months. December 2024 is the latest at which a General Election will be called. Whoever wins in the UK will have marginal impact. Only two countries will shape the world and that is USA and China. Everyone else will be reactionary.

Top 3 takeaways from me for now:

  1. 25 or so years of GLOBAL cheap money and low inflation started around 1995. That ended when Covid CAUSED disruption in the established supply chains. These have encouraged disruptive social, economic and political differences across the world. No country is totally immune. But some countries are stronger that others and get stronger quicker. We have lost our immediate trading partner in the EU. By the time we are back to the productive levels we were, the EU will have gained 15 years on us and so even then we have 15 years to go at whatever turbo charged pace we can muster. In the meantime Dublin and Luxembourg and New York will continue to attract top talent and company listings, the UK as the respected peers of Capital Allocation will lose its crown.
  2. Over that period the UK has been one of the top sources of inward capital investment. That is something for a small island to have been No 5, when we have significantly less natural resources and the fact that our manufacturing exports have been in decline. We have a reputation for training and biotech, but often it is rich foreign nationals who get the best resources and then they take them away. A gulf state private equity fund will have invested $1bn in a PFI initiative to collect bins and maintain street lights for 15 years in a couple of regional boroughs, which looked a good deal (all that money upfront), but paid them interest at 12% and they have had their money back in spades but we still have to keep paying. And the bill goes up. Our interest cost is £3,500 per household per annum against a debt of £80,000 per household. Meanwhile Mr and Mrs Jones in Acacia Gardens have a monetary windfall - inheritance, tax rebate, bonus - and decide to invest it 12 Station Road letting it as a HMO to maximise their income. Except there is no real investment into the UK - money decants from many tenants into the Jones' bank account and no net growth is added to the UK economy. Now we will have to borrow more in 2055 - 2085 because projections show housing benefit is rising against the cost of the state pension. This is where tax figures - everyone should be asking why in real terms their taxes have increased but public services have decreased. The delta is as above.
  3. There is no leadership. Leaders worry too much about their image or the Net Present Value of their book rights, pension funding or how to get some private capital out of the next crisis. Respect has gone. We need Warriors but do not have any.

Thank you for being the only person on this thread providing an answer, that is accurate, with no political bias.

JamSandle · 18/05/2023 23:42

I think most of the world is. Except perhaps China, India, and in a decade or so, parts of Africa.

wincarwoo · 18/05/2023 23:43

Cheap immigrant labour means the market doesn't need to focus on being more productive.

Loria · 18/05/2023 23:50

@JamSandle agree that's where it'll be at. There are a couple of countries in particular with astonishing growth eg Bangladesh and China/Russia are smart positioned for them ie they have a connection close by each one.

MissPoldark · 18/05/2023 23:55

A decline in the availability of cheap & easy energy.

Too much naval gazing and pissing about on trivial issues while ignoring what’s really important.

Icedlatteplease · 19/05/2023 00:01

We don't manufacture

We create rules to ensure wage standards (eg nmw) then allow cheap imports so it makes more sense to manufacture where living standards are poor and import.

Free trade is not a good idea

rattymol · 19/05/2023 00:05

The economic growth in the UK has been artificial for a while. Built on selling of state assets cheaply, asset stripping and increasing house prices and rents.

chaosmaker · 19/05/2023 00:40

And just wait until the government deregulates your rights away... Private Eye is a really good read for how/where things are getting screwed up. Too much money being put in private pockets. No political will to bring in proper changes for the many. Corbyn may have become a laughing stock but the policies if they'd got in and been enacted would have made a big difference. I don't understand all the trade deals that they just seem to be getting to say that they are getting trade deals. Surely we'd be better off ramping up production of things we need and supporting farmers properly/growing our own as at the moment we are in a pretty vulnerable position regarding food. Not to mention most things ie utilities are foreign owned. Another vulnerability. I wish they'd put more investment into green hydrogen. I think that is the most promising path to secure energy that has much less envivonmental impact.

Original poster
Neverknowno · 19/05/2023 00:54

frozendaisy · 18/05/2023 23:34

We have a new King and a new quiche. Do you reckon that helps?

😀

OP posts:
Original poster
Neverknowno · 19/05/2023 01:00

Politicians will do and say what they think will give them the votes. So they’ll blame immigration, etc. The UK is becoming less and less educated.

OP posts:
Chatillon · 19/05/2023 05:57

Thank you for being the only person on this thread providing an answer, that is accurate, with no political bias.

Political bias is part of the problem though. The great British disease is complacency. I meet so many people who are emotionally immature. "Never going to vote Labour, always a Conservative voter" - this just feeds Tory validation. Or "Tory scum". Actual policies and the common decency of each and every politician is what matters. I am really disappointed in all parties at the moment.

I am struck by the difference in attitude in March 2020 compared to today, when it comes to doing the right thing by the NHS staff and investment. Just incredible.

Chatillon · 19/05/2023 06:00

Oh, and quiche.

It is blooming amazing !! But best go to a farm shop or a French bistro if you want a nice one.

GreenwichOrTwicks · 19/05/2023 06:06

Cheap credit/family breakdown/culture of instant gratification and victim-hood culture. Deification of the ‘NHS’.

SisterWivesrus · 19/05/2023 06:11

Short-sightedness.

The NHS and welfare state were great ideas in the 1940s/50s. Not so much now when demand is so high and more complex.

Shutting down/decreasing production of goods in favour of cheaper imports, making us reliant on other countries.

Lack of investment in the future to save money in the short-term.

MissyB1 · 19/05/2023 06:14

Best thread for ages. I’m a bit knackered now - literally been up all night with my silly dog 🙄
Will come back to read more later.

Chatillon · 19/05/2023 06:26

Why Nations Fail

This is a good book for a holiday read. Very practical examples of countries through the ages but with some inescapable conclusions around human behaviour. You can get a sense of where we are heading in the world. There will be bits you agree with and disagree with, but as Obama said "The world is messy".

Wikipedia commentary on the book below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail#:~:text=Why%20Nations%20Fail%3A%20The%20Origins,Robinson.

Why Nations Fail - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail#:~:text=Why%20Nations%20Fail%3A%20The%20Origins,Robinson.

wildfirewonder · 19/05/2023 06:26

greenthumb13 · 18/05/2023 22:54

Brexit and austerity

This. Both Tory policies.

After 2008 we should have invested not cut. We cut, then carried on plus Brexited.

Perfect28 · 19/05/2023 06:27

Lack of investment in people and infrastructure. Lack of vision. Massive wealth inequality.

ApplesForMe · 19/05/2023 06:31

Very basically, for all the reasons listed previously, economic growth is slowing. This means the pie that everyone shares is shrinking. If you want to keep what services you have now, taxes have to rise, no matter who is in government

wildfirewonder · 19/05/2023 06:31

Neverknowno · 19/05/2023 01:00

Politicians will do and say what they think will give them the votes. So they’ll blame immigration, etc. The UK is becoming less and less educated.

The UK is definitely not becoming less educated.

Politicians are becoming more extreme, particularly on the right wing, in their attacks on the political system itself. If Churchill had gone out and spouted the shit Braverman does, the electorate would have responded more strongly than now, due to higher deference, less education, lower literacy.

But Churchill did not do that, not did Attlee.

Aishah231 · 19/05/2023 06:33

We always try to cut our way out of economic problems without somehow realising that if people don't have money they can't buy anything and the whole system collapses.

The ridiculous spending during the lockdown didn't help. You can't print hundreds of billions of pounds and not have inflation. Add to that the growing problem of privateering businesses taking their unearned share of public wealth through pretending to run things like the waterways but really running them into the ground whilst giving themselves massive profits.

Essentially our system has been corrupted.