Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Upbeat Article by Peter Dickenson

Russia’s new offensive will test the morale of Putin’s mobilized masses

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, speculation is mounting that Moscow will soon launch a major new offensive. Indeed, some commentators believe this offensive may already have begun, with reports emerging in recent days of Russian troops attempting to advance at numerous points along a frontline stretching hundreds of kilometers across southern and eastern Ukraine.
This widely anticipated offensive is an attempt by Moscow to regain the initiative following months of battlefield defeats and humiliating retreats in Ukraine that have undermined Russia’s reputation as a military superpower. Vladimir Putin is now desperate to demonstrate that his invasion is back on track and has reportedlyy_ massed huge reserves for a new push to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses. However, after a year of catastrophic losses that has left many of Russia’s most prestigious military units seriously depleted, doubts remain over the ability of untested replacement troops to carry out large-scale offensive operations.
Initial indications are not encouraging for the Kremlin, to say the least. Thousands of Russian soldiers including elite marines and special forces troops are believed to have been killed in late January and early February during a badly bungled attempt to storm the town of Vuhledarr in eastern Ukraine. The failed attack sparked widespread dismay and anger among pro-Kremlin military bloggers, with many accusing Russian army chiefs of incompetence. The disaster contributed to what British military intelligence saidd was likely to be “the highest rate of Russian casualties since the first week of the invasion.”

One of the key reasons behind the sharp recent rise in casualties is Russia’s growing reliance on mobilized personnel with limited military training. In September 2022, Vladimir Putin responded to escalating losses in Ukraine by launching Russia’s first mobilization since World War II. Most of the approximately 300,000 men who were mobilized last year have now been deployed to Ukraine. The arrival of these additional numbers helped Russia to blunt Ukraine’s advances during the winter months, but it is unclear whether mobilized troops will prove as effective in an offensive capacity.
Many mobilized Russians appear to be less than enthusiastic about their new role as the shock troops of Putin’s faltering invasion. Since the first week of February, a growing number of videoo appealss have been publishedd on social media featuring groups of mobilized soldiers complaining about everything from a lack of basic military equipment to the suicidal orders of their superiors. In one fairly typical video, the wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers from Tatarstan claim their men are being used as “cannon fodderr” in Ukraine.
With hundreds of thousands of mobilized Russians expected to take part in Putin’s big offensive, this emerging trend could pose a significant threat to the Kremlin. If current casualty rates are any indication, the coming attack could result in unprecedented loss of life and spark a complete collapse in morale among Russia’s already demoralized mobilized troops. This would make life very difficult for the Russian army in Ukraine, which would find itself confronted by a breakdown in discipline that would severely limit its ability to stage offensive operations. Nor is there any guarantee that the problems would stop there. Russia’s own experience in 1917 is a reminder of the unpredictable consequences that can follow when an army in wartime stops taking orders.

It is still premature to speak of mutinous mobilized soldiers, of course. Nevertheless, maintaining military discipline may be the biggest single challenge currently facing the Putin regime. At present, the Russian dictator appears in little danger domestically, with independent pollingg_ by the Levada Center continuing to identify strong Russian public support for the war in Ukraine. While some question the validity of this data, there is no escaping the near complete absence of any genuine anti-war activity in today’s Russia. One year since the invasion began, most opponents have chosen to remain silent or have left Russia altogether.
Likewise, Putin seems to have weathered the worst of the economic storm brought on by Western sanctions. The Russian economy has been hard-hit by measures imposed over the past year, but the damage has been significantly less than anticipated and is certainly far from fatal. This may change if the country’s economic outlook continues to worsen, but at this stage there is no indication that shrinking incomes or the departure of Western brands from Russian stores will fuel protests anytime soon. While members of the Russian elite are also feeling the pinch, most owe their positions to Putin and see no realistic alternative to the current status quo, however imperfect.
The relative calm on Putin’s home front contrasts sharply with the precarious position of his army in Ukraine. Putin had initially anticipated a quick and triumphant campaign that would confirm Russia’s Great Power status and extinguish Ukrainian statehood once and for all. Instead, he finds himself embroiled in the biggest European conflict since World War II with his battered army in increasing disarray and his hopes of military success dwindling.
In order to snatch a victory of sorts from the jaws of defeat, Putin must now rely on the overwhelming numbers provided by mass mobilization. This is a tried and tested Russian tactic, but it also carries considerable risks. Sending thousands of untrained men to fight against battle-hardened and highly motivated Ukrainian troops could result in the kind of carnage that breaks armies. If that happens, the fallout would likely reverberate throughout Russia and destabilize the entire regime. Putin may then find that saving his invasion is the least of his worries.
Peter Dickinson is Editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert Service.

Ref Moldova, a thread:

The situation in #Moldova 🇲🇩 has only really caught the headlines internationally in the last few days. In reality, the dire warnings of Russian threats to Moldova's survival are a culmination of decades of Russian operations domestically. Some thoughts on what needs to happen 👇

twitter.com/danielrhamilton/status/1625482644308852738?s=61&t=1GpzlzAlHVYrCX1BGWReAQ

With hundreds of thousands of mobilized Russians expected to take part in Putin’s big offensive, this emerging trend could pose a significant threat to the Kremlin. If current casualty rates are any indication, the coming attack could result in unprecedented loss of life and spark a complete collapse in morale among Russia’s already demoralized mobilized troops. This would make life very difficult for the Russian army in Ukraine, which would find itself confronted by a breakdown in discipline that would severely limit its ability to stage offensive operations.

This is called loss of good order and discipline, and it's a very real risk for the Russians now. Troops may decide to attack their officers rather than the Ukrainians. The Russians do things to limit this possibility (like not giving out ammo until an attack), but there's always a way. One related issue he didn't mention is the loss of officers in combat and the change in the ratio of officers to lower-level soldiers. As you flood the ranks with mobiks, the remaining officers have less control over them.

The Russians do things to limit this possibility (like not giving out ammo until an attack), but there's always a way

I assume this isn't the case in Western armies? That they do not have ammo withheld until an attack?

It seems bizarre that no one, apparently, considers overhauling the army and changes the way of doing things so that a considerable amount of effort is put into keeping your own men from focusing on killing you, instead of the enemy.

iyswim.

Ie, the army would do a lot better if it didn't have to spend time keeping itself from destroying itself from within.

Every base has a locked Arms room where weapons and ammunition are kept. But soldiers have access to it based on duties assigned and training needs. So people like MPs (military police) or soldiers on guard duty are routinely armed. You get access for field exercises, weapons qualifications, etc. Marksmanship is a skill that requires regular practice. It's controlled but with policies and procedures that allow necessary access.

When I said there's always a way, here's an example from last March.

Western official: Russian tank commander run over and killed by his own angry troops - Official says soldiers upset after unit suffers over 50% losses in combat, incident indicative of ‘morale challenges’ faced by army; 7th Russian general reported killed in fighting

ok so ammunition is carefully controlled generally on base. But in a war situation I imagine most firearms are kept loaded? it's not so tightly controlled then?

True, the rules are much looser in a combat zone. The chain of command can still make rules but the overriding principle is force protection.

MissConductUS, thanks for the explanation.

I am surprised loss of good order and discipline hasn't happened sooner with the Russian army considering the masses of mobiks sent on suicide missions. If they cannot desert or surrender to the enemy, other than near certain death on the battlefield, I would have thought that the next best chance of survival is to mutiny. Question: do mobiks trust each other enough to co-ordinate a rebellion?

As Ducks says, it seems to be a costly distraction for an army to have to spend so much effort trying to make the infantry fire in the direction of the enemy rather than against the officers in charge. I guess Wagner has got this down to a fine art.

Desdamona, appreciate the background on Moldova and the upbeat article.

97% (!) of the entire Russian army is involved in Ukraine, — British Defense Minister Ben Wallace

Wow, that seems crazy considering how big the Russian army is and the vast areas it has to protect. Maybe it is time to march on Moscow (kidding).

Have been lurking recently as not had anything useful to add (and I guess just feeling a bit miserable that despite all the new offers of equipment, Russia seems to be making gains, albeit small, I guess I was hoping for more Ukrainian progress) - but I was surprised by this - well surprised by the Polish involvment, given what the Iranian drones are doing in Ukraine, Hungary not so much:
www.timesofisrael.com/defying-eu-boycott-poland-and-hungary-send-envoys-to-iran-revolution-anniversary/

If they cannot desert or surrender to the enemy, other than near certain death on the battlefield, I would have thought that the next best chance of survival is to mutiny

it's well documented there are 2ndry lines of troops to shoot anyone who refuses to fight. It's one of the things Kadyrovites are used for, where there is a serious chance of this happening en masse but it also happens with regular troops. Heavy chance of dying if you go forward, certain death if you don't.

But it does tie up some troops monitoring their own soldiers, I suppose.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2023

Key Takeaways

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s inability to reconstruct spent mechanized material in the short term further restricts the Russian military’s mechanized maneuver warfare capabilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilization initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21.

Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources implied that Ukrainian forces may hold positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, although ISW has not observed any confirmation of the claim.

The Kremlin continues to fund its war efforts in Ukraine from regional budgets.

The Russian government continues to further integrate occupied territories into Russian governance structures.

Note: Russian forces have only gained about 500 square kilometers in the Bakhmut area in intensive campaigning since July 4, 2022, while suffering extravagant casualties.

and

The timely Western provisions of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine would further offset Russia’s ability to conduct mechanized warfare as Russia struggles to restart its defense production in the immediate term. Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate large-scale counteroffensives over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it the necessary materiel, particularly tanks and armored vehicles.

You could probably substitute Ukraine Air Force for VKS in that MoD update with regard to air ops and most of it would be just as applicable.

I think I heard one US VSO ( or ex-VSO) describing the situation as mutual denial of airspace.

I was told by someone in the British Army who was based in Camp Bastion for a tour that they kept a loaded weapon with them at all times because attacks on Bastion were common enough to merit them having a means of immediate self-defence, not just under attack from outside the perimeter but also if one of the civilians employed there started shooting at people while they were (for instance) eating.

So even junior British Army officers were trusted with ammunition when off duty. I don't know abut the squaddies, though.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️NABU notifies (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nabu-notifies-10-people-of-suspicion-over-alleged-embezzlement-in-ukrgasbank) 10 people of suspicion over alleged embezzlement in Ukrgasbank.

⚡️(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wallace-uk-will-not-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-any-time-soon)fighter jets to Ukraine any time soon.

⚡️Switzerland refuses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/switzerland-refuses-to-confiscate-frozen-russian-assets) to confiscate frozen Russian assets.
The Swiss government said confiscating Russian assets was against the country's constitution and could “violate Switzerland’s international obligations,” the European Pravda media outlet reported on Feb. 15.

⚡️Investigation: Top official's brother gets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/investigation-top-officials-brother-gets-massive-discount-on-real-estate-pays-with-unknown-funds) massive discount on real estate, pays with unknown funds.

⚡️Stoltenberg: NATO countries to increase support (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/stoltenberg-nato-countries-to-increase-support-for-ukraine) for Ukraine.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Feb. 15 that the alliance members had pledged new commitments to support Ukraine with heavy equipment and military training at the meeting of the alliance's defense ministers.

⚡️Russian media: Army recruiters (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-media-army-recruiters-force-students-to-sign-pre-term-conscription) force students to sign pre-term conscription.
Russian army recruiters have been reportedly pushing students to sign consent forms to conscript them in April instead of July,

⚡️Reznikov says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reznikov-says-zelensky-asked-him-to-continue-as-defense-minister) Zelensky asked him to continue as defense minister.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that he would remain in his post by the decision of President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Guardian reported on Feb. 15.
Earlier, the ministry was beset by a high-profile corruption scandal that led to the firing of several top officials and put Reznikov's role in doubt.

⚡️Kyiv authorities: Russian spy balloons downed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/local-authorities-russian-spy-balloons-downed-over-kyiv) over capital.
Ukraine's air defense has detected about six Russian spy balloons over Kyiv and shot down "most of them," Kyiv City Military Administration reported on Feb. 15.

⚡️German defense minister says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-defense-minister-says-ukraine-to-receive-fewer-leopard-tanks-than-promised) Ukraine to receive fewer Leopard tanks than promised.
Western allies will not be able to supply Ukraine with two full battalions of Leopard 2 tanks as they previously promised, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Feb. 15, according to Bloomberg.

⚡️Wagner Group boss says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wagner-group-boss-says-russia-could-surround-bakhmut-in-march-april) Russia could surround Bakhmut in March-April.

⚡️European Parliament: Ex-President Saakashvili's death in custody would be blow (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-parliament-ex-president-saakashvilis-death-in-custody-would-be-blow-to-georgias-democracy) to Georgia's democracy.
The Georgian government's continued failure to improve former President Mikheil Saakashvili's deteriorating situation in prison is putting Gerogia's reputation and European Union aspirations at risk, the European Parliament said in a resolution on Feb. 15.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Wagner Group losing up to 80% (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-ministry-wagner-grou-losing-up-to-80-of-some-assault-units-near-bakhmut) of some assault units near Bakhmut.
"Evacuation of the dead and wounded is limited or not carried out at all," Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said on Telegram.

⚡️Israeli foreign minister arrives (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/israeli-foreign-minister-arrives-in-kyiv-for-official-visit) in Kyiv for official visit.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Feb. 5 that Israel had promised to provide Ukraine with a missile and drone alert system.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

‼️The bodies of 27 people killed during the Russian occupation of Snihurivka have been found, Novosti N reports, citing the head of Mykolaiv regional prosecutor's office.

How multinational is Azov?
An episode from the interview
with Bohdan Krotevych, Tavr - Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment

Switzerland has authorized the start of confiscation of frozen assets of former President Viktor Yanukovych's entourage worth more than CHF 130 million (over $140.5 million

In the war against Ukraine, Russia lost about 50% of its pre-war fleet of modern T-72B3 and T-72B3M tanks, and depleted its stocks of cruise missiles - International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

Tennessee volunteer: This war is hell, the stuff you see here will be with you forever. I saw a lot of sh*t before i came to Ukraine, but nothing comes even close

National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that a massive missile attack by the Russians should be expected on February 23-24. According to him, this should be treated calmly, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to fight back. He added that the troops understand that such attacks involve 115 to 120 missiles.

The Belarusian army will join the Russian army in the war only in case of a direct attack on Belarus, - self-proclaimed President Lukashenko. [not that I believe much he says]

Former deputy head of the Russian presidential administration Vladislav Surkov said that he worked on the Minsk agreements based on the assumption that they should not be implemented.

🇸🇰Slovak Parliament recognizes Russian regime as terrorist and Russia as a sponsor of terrorism - Aktuality.

🇪🇺 The European Parliament supported the proposal to expel Russia from the UN Security Council.

EU to ban export of toilets to Russia on anniversary of invasion - Euobserver.

Russia has lost an eighth of its combat helicopters in the war with Ukraine and is forced to change tactics, — Forbes

About 330 helicopters are currently in service with 11 strike units of the Russian Air Force:

▫️100 Ka-52;

▫️80 Mi-28;

▫️150 Mi-24.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shot down about 52 Russian helicopters:

▫️at least 30 Ka-52;

▫️11 Mi-28;

▫️11 Mi-24.

Ka-52 turned out to be the most vulnerable both to Ukrainian air defense and to artillery and mobile groups, which often destroy enemy equipment before takeoff.

In order to protect helicopters, the enemy is forced to turn advanced bases into highly protected "fortresses", as well as to use "mixed" aviation tactics, in which the Ka-52 and Mi-28 operate together during combat sorties.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

US focuses on training Ukrainian military to use less ammunition, — Politico
The U.S. is giving priority to helping the Ukrainians change the way they fight, relying not on mass artillery fire but on the maneuverability of troops on the battlefield, as Western concerns grow about their ability to replenish ammunition stocks on such a scale.

I have always been on the side of the Ukrainian people and peace, — ex-Prime Minister of Italy, a close friend of Putin Silvio Berlusconi tried to silence the scandal after his statement that if he were the Prime Minister now, he would not talk with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom he also accused of genocide of Donbas residents. [fuckwit]

The European Union is studying the possibility of imposing restrictions on Rosbank, Tinkoff Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of the Russian Federation as part of the tenth package of sanctions, — Bloomberg

The total cost of the new package of EU sanctions against the Russian Federation is 11 billion euros, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said
In particular, the restrictions will apply to controls on the trade and export of technology, including drones, helicopters, and missiles.
Von der Leyen also noted that the EU will introduce sanctions against Iranian structures involved in Russia's war against Ukraine.

Ukraine will be ready for the offensive in a few months, – Reznikov

Today, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson to Ukraine

In February 2023, there were more frequent reports that Russia was launching balloons with corner reflectors into Ukraine. As the title implies, they are based on a balloon.
Such bullets can create obstacles and mislead radar systems, which will take the object for a target, for example, for a UAV.

The Russian hacker group KILLNET took responsibility for the failure of the information system of the German airline Lufthansa

Sweden is handing over 51 BMP, Archer self-propelled guns, and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the Prime Minister of Sweden announced

Training of the Ukrainian military on the Patriot air defense system is progressing well, faster than expected, – Spiegel

The US is resuming Arctic Council projects that do not include Russia's participation.

▫️ The states recognize the status of the Russian Federation as an important Arctic state but do not see the possibility of cooperation with it in the region in the near future.

▫️ Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Germany, Türkiye, and Greece on February 16-22, and will also take part in the Munich Conference.

❗️Italy has approved the sixth package of aid to Ukraine against the backdrop of the scandal with Berlusconi, – ANSA with reference to the head of the Italian Foreign Ministry.

🩸 In the occupied Crimea, due to huge losses, the Russians began a mass collection of blood, — General Staff

Lithuania ceases cooperation with the Republic of Belarus on ensuring the "uninterrupted movement" of transport across the border, – Belarusian Border Committee

The chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, said that Russia must provide the authority for German-Russian relations to be restored

The Canadian government will additionally allocate 7.5 million Canadian dollars, which is equivalent to 5.6 million US dollars, for demining Ukraine and training Ukrainian deminers, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said.

In Russia, the head of the financial support department of the Ministry of Defense in the Western Military District, Marina Yankina, died, – Russian mass media

❗️In Ukraine, the Russians want to make two countries according to the Korean version, such a plan was proposed to Putin by Medvedchuk, – Secretary of the NSDC Danilov

Washington Post Telegram

• In Russia, a court sentenced RusNews journalist Maria Ponomarenko to six years in jail on Wednesday, the outlet said on Telegram. She was indicted for a Telegram post about the attack on a theater in Mariupol in March last year. The prosecutor asked for a nine-year sentence.

Ukraine’s allies rush to send more equipment, risking logjams

(www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/14/ukraine-weapons-supply-routes/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)BRUSSELS — Time is growing short for Ukraine’s military backers to gather vast quantities of new equipment and move it along supply lines that are fast becoming overwhelmed with shipments Kyiv awaits as it plans to launch a spring counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces, senior U.S. officials said Tuesday.

From European depots and harbors, to central gathering points and over the border onto the roads and rails of Ukraine, the increasing flow is challenging the ability to transport it in real time, officials said.

There was a palpable sense of urgency as top military and defense officials gathered here for the latest meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the coalition of more than 50 nations providing security assistance.

Prigozhin — who the U.S. government estimates has deployed some 50,000 fighters to Ukraine — boasted in November that he was interfering in the U.S. midterm congressional elections and intended to continue doing so.

The Russian hacker group KILLNET took responsibility for the failure of the information system of the German airline Lufthansa

Err, nice try at claiming credit "killnet", but nope, I don't think so, not unless you've moved on from the hacking business and into the construction industry..

www.theregister.com/2023/02/15/lufthansa/

From all reports, not just the one above, it looks very similar to some other airline industry IT stuffs ups that have happened over the years.

You mean they're claiming credit for stuff that just isn't theirs? :D heh, should have guessed!

A difficult, but I think necessary, article from Politico about reporting and the sensitivity around reporting where Ukraine, in this defense of its sovereign land, has at times made mistakes.

www.politico.eu/article/nuance-war-reporting-journalist-media-coverage-ukraine/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

Ducks, thanks again for the key takeaways.

In Russia, the head of the financial support department of the Ministry of Defense in the Western Military District, Marina Yankina, died, – Russian mass media

More high ranking Russian officials mysteriously falling from windows. Fuller report here:

metro.co.uk/2023/02/16/putins-top-defence-official-dies-after-160ft-balcony-fall-in-mystery-death-18296126/

Ukraine’s allies rush to send more equipment, risking logjams

Time is growing short for Ukraine’s military backers to gather vast quantities of new equipment and move it along supply lines that are fast becoming overwhelmed with shipments Kyiv awaits as it plans to launch a spring counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces, senior U.S. officials said Tuesday.

From European depots and harbors, to central gathering points and over the border onto the roads and rails of Ukraine, the increasing flow is challenging the ability to transport it in real time, officials said.

There was a palpable sense of urgency as top military and defense officials gathered here for the latest meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the coalition of more than 50 nations providing security assistance.

Logjams are not great but finally the sense the urgency in delivering weapons that Ukraine has been crying out for.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Today 20:49
A difficult, but I think necessary, article from Politico about reporting and the sensitivity around reporting where Ukraine, in this defense of its sovereign land, has at times made mistakes
www.politico.eu/article/nuance-war-reporting-journalist-media-coverage-ukraine/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

It is necessary, otherwise things leak out anyway, and then there is distrust about all of it.