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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

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MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 21:41

Igotjelly · 12/02/2023 21:29

Here's some additional coverage of the one over the Great Lakes.

abcnews.go.com/US/military-shoots-high-altitude-object-lake-huron-officials/story?id=97068247

The Senate majority leader has been briefed that they're all balloons of one sort or another.

abcnews.go.com/Politics/3-objects-flying-us-canada-balloons-schumer-congress/story?id=97055660

I assume that these balloon overflights have been going on for years, and it was either unknown or kept quiet.

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 22:05

Do you to think the China one is potentially a bit questionable?

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 22:08

Sorry, *not think

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 22:08

Yes, I think probably so. It's all so weird. I wonder if it's been happening for a while but all of a sudden the US are moving against business as usual

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Greenshake · 12/02/2023 22:12

That seems to be the party line right now - that this has been going on for a while but a new radar system had started picking them up

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 22:14

Cor it's a bit worrying though if millions of balloons have been flying about undetected and then a singular update to ioSNewRader suddenly reveals them all. Must be more to it

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Greenshake · 12/02/2023 22:16

Oh definitely. I wish we could all just have some normality again.

Igotjelly · 12/02/2023 22:18

i’m honestly at the stage a full scale alien invasion could take place and I wouldn’t be shocked. Sick to fuck of ‘living through history’ wish shit was boring again.

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 22:21

Completely agree

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notimagain · 12/02/2023 22:28

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 22:14

Cor it's a bit worrying though if millions of balloons have been flying about undetected and then a singular update to ioSNewRader suddenly reveals them all. Must be more to it

I agree, I'm not sure it's a case of new radar systems being involved, more likely either this has been known about for years with maybe smaller balloons being involved which been watched but allowed to go on their way. Nothing was said until the Chinese (?) rocked up with a super balloon that simply could not be hidden..

or..whoever is launching them is suddenly doing so on a much more frequent basis.

or...combination of the two.

It's certainly an interesting way of potentially capture electronic intelligence.

Alighttouchonthetiller · 12/02/2023 22:39

Igotjelly · 12/02/2023 22:18

i’m honestly at the stage a full scale alien invasion could take place and I wouldn’t be shocked. Sick to fuck of ‘living through history’ wish shit was boring again.

Christ, me too. I have been lurking on these threads every day for the last year or so, and under a different name was given much needed reassurance when all the sabre rattling was first happening but I'm now just completely exhausted by everything. Bring on the aliens, I say. Let them sort it all out while I lie down with a damp cloth over my eyes.

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 22:42

Investigation of the wreckage of the big Chinese balloon and the companies that made its components are pointing fairly conclusively at electronic intelligence gathering. This is the first thing I've seen in the press about what wreckage has been collected. The WSJ has done an impressive amount of fact finding on this story in a very short time.

U.S. List of China Balloon Suppliers Hints at New Age in Surveillance - Company profiles point to high-tech parts as military links fuel Washington’s concerns of spy threat

Updated Feb. 11, 2023 7:03 pm ET

As the U.S. military retrieves debris from a Chinese balloon destroyed this month over the Atlantic Ocean, new indications are emerging from Washington of how high-tech components might point to a new Beijing spying threat.

The Commerce Department on Friday named six Chinese enterprises as makers of balloon and airship equipment, which the agency alleged is connected to intelligence gathering by the People’s Liberation Army. The enterprises were added to a lengthy register of companies the U.S. aims to block from obtaining American high technology—sophisticated components and processes China lacks and that the government believes could be used to do harm to U.S. interests.

Meanwhile, U.S. authorities were continuing to assess a high-altitude object they haven’t publicly identified that was shot down Friday on President Biden’s order as it flew above Alaska.

China’s government has so far not commented on the new sanctions or on the news of the flying object, nor responded to questions.

While balloons may be old school, the new sanctions coupled with the targets’ corporate profiles demonstrate U.S. concerns that China’s craft are wired for a new age in surveillance.

Among the China-based suppliers blacklisted was the co-developer of an airship designed to fly far higher than aircraft, the holder of a patent for controlling aerial vehicles with satellites and artificial intelligence, a specialist in propeller flight equipment for drones and a producer of electronic sensors engineered for spacecraft.

On their websites, some of the companies identify themselves as suppliers to China’s military. None is well-known. Also, their businesses don’t appear to include the manufacture of requisite balloon parts such as the giant fabric “envelopes” that billow with helium gas.

The Navy, among others, have spent a week scooping out of the Atlantic Ocean remains of what the U.S. said were solar panels, antennae and electronic apparatus attached to a 200-foot Chinese spy balloon. An American jet fighter destroyed the balloon with a missile this month after U.S. surveillance aircraft monitored it on a path across the American sky.

The Pentagon in recent days has alleged that China’s military has deployed a fleet of high-altitude balloons for an aerial snooping program, and the public naming of component manufacturers is its latest evidence.

Beijing says its downed balloon was a meteorological research craft that blew off course and that the U.S. overreacted by shooting it down.

Discovery of the balloon above the U.S. last week has added a new source of tension to an already bitter U.S.-China relationship and highlighted a military dimension to the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies. It led to the suspension of a visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that both sides billed as an opportunity to put a floor under their problems.

It’s unlikely China’s newly blacklisted companies are the sector’s only suppliers. The complexity of high-altitude ballooning, from the type of material used in the envelope that holds gas like helium to the payload of optical equipment and navigational systems on the ground, demands a broad array of systems.

“We’re a vertically integrated company, but we still have hundreds of suppliers to bring this to life,” says Ryan M. Hartman, president and chief executive officer of Tucson, Ariz.-based World View Enterprises Inc., which sends balloons to the stratosphere on the behalf of clients that include oil companies and the Defense Department. Mr. Hartman says the fixed costs of the imaging equipment and solar systems carried by the balloon can cost millions of dollars, while individual flights eat up hundreds of thousands of dollars to over $100,000 for single-use items like the helium.

The Chinese companies blacklisted over alleged ties to the PLA’s balloon endeavors include Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace Technology Co., China Electronics Technology Group Corp.’s 48th Research Institute, Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology Co., Eagles Men Aviation Science & Technology Group Co., Shanxi Eagles Men Aviation Science & Technology Group Co., and Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation Technology Co.

Efforts to reach the companies over the weekend were unsuccessful.

The Commerce Department’s blacklist entries Friday are its latest actions aimed at slowing the technological advance of China’s military.

The department’s Bureau of Industry and Security stopped short of alleging the companies produced parts for the downed balloon. Its allegations are broader, that the entities have links to aerospace programs of the PLA, including airships and balloons and related materials and components.

The bureau didn’t say what components might be sourced in the U.S. by the companies. They join a list of some 600 Chinese entities that are subject to U.S. sanctions in various forms that already includes telecommunications-gear maker Huawei Technologies Co. and surveillance-camera company Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.

The administration has also taken other steps to restrict China’s access to Western technology in a bid to challenge the PLA’s power, including last year slapping export controls on advanced chip-manufacturing equipment required for the production of advanced semiconductors.

Corporate websites, online marketing, media reports and military procurement lists in China show each of the companies named by the U.S. on Friday produces specialized equipment that could have a role in the complex industry of high-altitude ballooning.

In 2015, Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace developed China’s first airship for altitudes above those flown by jetliners known as near-space, according to Chinese government-run newspaper Science and Technology Daily. The solar-powered airship climbed above 65,000 feet from a launchpad in Inner Mongolia and had the ability to fly at all hours, according to the report, which said the craft made China a stronger competitor with the U.S., the global leader in near-space activity.

Also with near-space applications, Eagles Men Aviation Science & Technology has filed for patents in China for various high-altitude, unmanned aerial vehicles, from a video-enabled ground station control system to materials that are resistant to atmospheric conditions. It has developed algorithms powered by artificial intelligence for making satellite communication connections with unmanned aerial vehicles in near space, including balloons, according to a since-deleted description on its website.

Public records suggest Eagles Men, which also uses other names in English, has links to Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology Co. The records show they share an investor, and, in one case, ownership of a Chinese patent moved between the companies for a carbon-fiber structural component of stratospheric airships. Chinese patent filings separately show Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation has developed a propeller-driven, drone-like vehicle for takeoff and landing.

The 48th Research Institute, a subsidiary of government-run China Electronics Technology Group Corp. that is based in Hunan province, advertises equipment on its website for making solar panels, lithium batteries, semiconductors and sensors. A supplier to China’s space program, the institute says on its website that its metal, hydrogen and pressure sensors have both civil and military uses.

In March, the 48th Research Institute awarded a tender for around $328,000 to a Shanghai subsidiary of Glenview, Ill.-based Illinois Tool Works Inc. for mass flow controls, according to documents on a procurement site maintained by China’s military. Illinois Tool didn’t respond to requests for comment on Saturday. Its controls are electronics that regulate the flow of gas.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 22:47

One in China? got the article, @MagicFox ? confused

notimagain · 12/02/2023 22:53

@MissConductUS

Thanks for the info:

In 2015, Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace developed China’s first airship for altitudes above those flown by jetliners known as near-space, according to Chinese government-run newspaper Science and Technology Daily. The solar-powered airship climbed above 65,000 feet from a launchpad in Inner Mongolia

I can't vouch for the credibility/accuracy of this piece but it might be linked with the above:

www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41462/gigantic-hangar-near-secretive-chinese-test-facilities-points-to-exotic-airship-development

MagicFox · 12/02/2023 22:54

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar there's info everywhere but here's a random Twitter grab citing Global Times

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/02/2023 23:16

blimey. The questions about that and the implications are endless ....

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 23:24

The other odd thing is the lack of images of the items that have been shot down (air balloon aside).

MissConductUS · 12/02/2023 23:57

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 23:24

The other odd thing is the lack of images of the items that have been shot down (air balloon aside).

They likely don't want to make public the resolution of the cameras in use on the F-22. We may see reduced-resolution images eventually.

MissConductUS · 13/02/2023 00:06

@notimagain, is it possible that NORAD has made adjustments to their phased array radars that allow them to detect these targets better?

MagicFox · 13/02/2023 07:50

Thread on the balloons that makes sense: twitter.com/timinhonolulu/status/1624988961994330112?s=46&t=WZsvokQoeab9UAQDFxCGYA

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notimagain · 13/02/2023 07:51

Greenshake · 12/02/2023 23:24

The other odd thing is the lack of images of the items that have been shot down (air balloon aside).

Morning....I'd be pretty sure that is down to what @MissConductUS said - the US will be very reluctant to give away details of their imaging capability.

Same certainly happens with satellite images..the general public and also most of the military never get to see the really interesting fine detail stuff.

notimagain · 13/02/2023 08:02

MissConductUS · 13/02/2023 00:06

@notimagain, is it possible that NORAD has made adjustments to their phased array radars that allow them to detect these targets better?

I'd guess one possibility would be that the balloons were being detected at the raw radar level but were being filtered out in the signal processing at some point because of their (lack of) speed and possibly their altitude.... effectively something very slow was not perceived as a threat so not displayed to avoid cluttering up the screens.

Tweak the filters and...🤔

OTOH the puzzle for me is that very large balloons are visible from the ground with the naked eye and there are plenty of people who take and interest in the sky (for example as you may know there's a big interest in amateur astronomy in the States). Given that I'd be surprised if very large balloons have been getting away with overflying the US undetected/unreported until recently.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/02/2023 08:25

Assuming they come from China, I wonder if there have been some US balloons flying their way too?

MagicFox · 13/02/2023 08:27

If it's not China I'll eat my magic hat

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Igotjelly · 13/02/2023 08:31

On China, it’s being reported that their top diplomat Wang Yi will visit Russia this month.