Are things in the UK as bad as it sounds in the news?

[Lolobella]

I left the UK in 2017 and now live in Europe. I obviously still follow the UK news closely and visit, although I have no family left there.

In the last few months the UK news have become increasingly grim and concerning. I can't tell if it is just the news painting the country in a worse light than necessary, or if things are genuinely as bad as the news make it sound.

Obviously this is a tough historical moment for many countries, but the doom and gloom in UK news is just on another level and makes if sound like the country is in free fall. Poverty, strikes, crazy energy prices, failing NHS and public services.. Is it really so bad?!

@scaredoff Yes, i listen to people like Wes Streeting and think i am listening to a Tory Minister & when it comes to supporting NHS workers, Starmer may as well be Barclay, both wont support even an inflation matching pay rise, what KS is really saying is yes i would talk pay but it would stay at or similar to pay review body.

On EU, Labour are in line with ERG.

The trouble is, the UK electorate will not vote for anyone more to the left, KS has no choice or stay in opposition.

Actually I'm not sure this is strictly true as Starmer has no ideological attachment to anything.

On this I agree. Another poster said he was neither a pragmatist nor ideologue which resonated

I think he’s put together by committee and chasing votes. The policies so far aren’t good though.

@scaredoff I agree Starmer is a centrist. In a less right-wing Conservative party, he could easily have been a conservative MP. The idea he is some lefty who is going to heavily tax the rich is absurd.

Of course he’s going after ‘the rich’ it’s his platform

Whether he’ll get much from his low yield policies is another matter. The voters lap it up. No matter that they’ll probably do more harm than good.

The trouble is, the UK electorate will not vote for anyone more to the left, KS has no choice or stay in opposition.

That's the received wisdom. But in 2017 Labour had its most leftwing leader and manifesto in living memory and more people voted Labour than at any time since 1997, enough to deprive the Tories of their majority. It's widely accepted that the reversal of that direction in 1997 was almost entirely due to two factors neither of which have to do with being too far left: Brexit, and the personal unpopularity of the leader who (starting already from a low base) suffered the most comprehensive character assasination ever executed by the Tory-controlled media.

Many (most) of Labour's policies from that time were shown to have considerable majority support, including nationalising utlities which would surely have far MORE support now. The one notable exception, which few people supported at all, was their policy on Brexit insisting on a second referendum. LOL: Guess who was behind that one? 😆

This insistence that a left wing government can never be elected is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The evidence to support it is cherry picked and obsessed over like some kind of Eternal Natural Law; the evidence against it is ignored, or quietly taken as a signal to a panicked establishment to double down on their efforts to convince everyone of it.

Of course he’s going after ‘the rich’ it’s his platform

Really? What policies has he announced to that effect?

Do you think he would be better once he got in? I think he's saying what he needs to, to get votes.

@MadameDe I wouldn't hold my breath. But I think he will improve the NHS so he gets my vote.

On one hand I agree he’s very much a centrist, there’s no deep structural change and no attempt to reverse Brexit.

But on a more superficial perception policies on VAT for private school, abolishing HoL, taking away Nom Dom status and potentially a wealth tax all resonate well with voters who want to see the rich taxed. The trouble is this is more harmful than Blair’s take which was opportunity for all - even if some on the left disliked that, he did get a good landslide.

Your other post is interesting, Corbyn suffered a huge loss in 2019 so I don’t quite agree. But worth looking talking about.

It is horseshit to say a left wing government cannot be elected in the UK. However, it is unusual and needs particular circumstances to be certain.

I do not think the Tory party ever really recovered post 1945. Had the British been unthinking right wing patriots they would have kept Churchill in; instead they rejected him by a landslide.

Left wing governments in the UK are certainly far rarer than a small c Conservative government. But this Government has allowed its loony wing to take charge and the consequences are that people are poorer. In voting terms they will remember that every week until the next election.

Unless a majority of British people feel richer, anc are not treading water come the next election, the Tories are over. Yet there are no policy levers they can pull without really pulling apart policies that the general British public love, such as the NHS being free at the point of use. Their marginal voters would never support a change. And they are stuck. They tried an ultra right wing tax policy and were destroyers by the market. They are out of ideas, and gave exactly the conditions for a Labour victory.

Frankly Starmer can make what noises he likes if the polls hold. Expect a vague manifesto.

But on a more superficial perception policies on VAT for private school, abolishing HoL, taking away Nom Dom status and potentially a wealth tax all resonate well with voters who want to see the rich taxed. The trouble is this is more harmful than Blair’s take which was opportunity for all - even if some on the left disliked that, he did get a good landslide

Nothing wrong with VAT on schools fees, any more than VAT on a super car.
HoLs ? years away, prob never happen, minor reform, maybe, how do you justify a non elected house with 850 members?

Why not get rid of nom dom? whats the advantage to the UK in keeping?

Wealth tax? Labour have never advocated that under Starmer.

But if you don't want tax rises, where will the immediate money needed come from for nhs pay and fix 7m waiting lists?

The media control how people think and even vote, they don't support left wing parties or policies, hence the electorate wont and yes i do think they are that easily led.

Corbyn did well in 2017 but he lost and the Tories stayed in power.

But on a more superficial perception policies on VAT for private school, abolishing HoL, taking away Nom Dom status and potentially a wealth tax all resonate well with voters who want to see the rich taxed. The trouble is this is more harmful than Blair’s take which was opportunity for all - even if some on the left disliked that, he did get a good landslide.

OK that's a pretty good answer to my question. Interesting though that all of those things have to do with attacking structural aspects that keep wealth and privilege embedded in certain institutions, rather than stifling personal ambition by raising the upper rate of income tax or even corporation tax. Kind of contradicts my earlier point about Starmer not being willing to do exactly that. I'm not holding my breath on it amounting to any more than token gestures though.

In fact you could interpret much of that not so much as an attack on the rich, as an attack on privileged exceptionalism to shore up democracy. It's pretty hard to defend, in a supposedly democratic country, an unelected upper house of parliament, the ability of a small select group of individuals to call themselves non-resident for tax purposes, or giving charitable status to institutions of privilege that are clearly not charities. This may be more about Starmer the lawyerly technocrat in pursuit of logical consistency than about wealth redistribution.

The critical thing is money in the pocket. If the Tories continue to have relatively high tax, poor public services, and people feel poor, then the polls will not move. All that cod immigration policy will not matter to a voting majority.

Sunak has about 12 months to make people who are scraping by and who were frightened of Corbyn taking what they had to feel richer. I do not fancy his chances. His policy actually seems to have baked in a degree of impoverishment- he can't win from that.

But if you don't want tax rises, where will the immediate money needed come from for nhs pay and fix 7m waiting lists?

Or more to the point @MarshaBradyo , if you don't accept the validity of a potential government engaging in ANY attempt to redistribute wealth from poor to rich, or from capital to labour, whatsoever, then what's the point in even taking part in a discussion about a Labour government? That's what the Labour party was designed to do. You can argue (God knows they argue enough among themselves) about how quickly, radically, slowly or carefully they should do that. But if you really don't accept the fact of wanting to do it, in principle (which is a perfectly valid political position) then what's the point? It's like spending an entire thread earnestly dissecting the likely ramifications of voting UKIP, because you're really hoping that they'll keep us in the EU and you're waiting for some policy announcements from them to give you confidence in that happening.

A lot of people seem to do this - explain in great length how frustrated they are waiting for a "sensible" version of the Labour party, with "sensible" meaning Not A Labour Party.

• from rich to poor, obv, not poor to rich!

Yes I agree it feels like his comfort zone. Legal complexity.

My issue with Nom Dom is you’re taxing a group of people with
options, other countries will very much welcome that wealth. There’s not much to be raised, but ok if they go is that bad or good. I don’t mind that much about this one, but whether it will benefit much.

HoL - just loathe in that we’ll replace with US system with off electoral cycle elections, so we get more partisan, short term ism and gridlock when the two don’t match. Plus I was pleasantly surprised hearing the HoL speeches on the maternity which were measured and intelligent and made the HoC seem more like the pantomime it is. There’s more, another thread had loads of good posts in FWR but won’t repeat. It’ll take years of money and energy, we should learn from Brexit how hard this is

VAT on schools - dc in state system when it’s over burdened, make it more elite, and lower the asset we have to U.K. which is private education also feeding into universities which are so key to non SE areas of U.K.

I’d take Blair type again over this, he knew not to do this kind of stuff. He could probably sell something more on Brexit. I know Starmer is likely to win. But I’m not excited by it.

So yes I think a certain type of Labour government would appeal to me. It did before as it did many more - due to the landslide. I’m not loyal to either side but usually vote with the majority, it’s easy to get my vote.

So no I don’t buy ‘you can’t talk about Labour’. Since they have managed to get my vote a few times.

Nom Doms leaving the UK ? is that a given, are people leaving France or Germany because they higher tax rates.
From what i ve read, as with business investment, tax is just one aspect, employment, business interests, kids, culture - pretty much why the Sunaks haven't moved, despite in practice, losing her ND status.

HoLs ? blair had this in one of his manifesto's, will never happen, for me the HoL is unelected and cannot, against a determined HoC's change anything, no matter the intelligence of the debate, so, why would we have to go to a USA system.

On private schools, i'd like to see the evidence that parents would go to the state sector, fees have risen a lot in recent years, yet the sector is booming.

But once again, still no alternative to higher taxes.

I don't buy in to the Labour victory at all, i think so much will depend on how people view the policies that he will have to announce soon.

Higher taxes in France or anywhere such as Scotland have a bit of an impact but for most people it’s a few thousand

I would have thought if a Nom Dom had the wealth to make a difference to tax receipts they’d make it inaccessible on the news. But if they can’t and the difference between a £30k fee and millions comes up. Yeh I’d say their 15 year stay may be cut short, or they just won’t choose U.K. to start with. I don’t think many think that highly of the state to hand it over

Labour won’t raise much - so the answer to your question is probably there isn’t any. Other solutions will need to be found.

Who cares if non-doms leave the country, when they're not paying tax into the country anyway? Good riddance.

I don't get this idea that we need certain individuals so much they can effectively hold us to ransom on tax.

Yes good riddance etc but you won’t get that tax that Starmer is relying on to fund the NHS…

That’s why it’s a dud not that you need to care that they leave.

The problem with the British electorate is that there is a significant contingent who may not have earned a lot in their life times but who have significant assets and good pensions. This allows them to tread water far more easily than the average person under 45. This is why a majority of under-45s don't vote for tory, even if they are higher earning. We have rugged liberatarianism for the young, socialism for the old etc. Pensioners have more disposable income than the average working person. 10% inflation is not great for the average pensioner though, which is probably why they are rebelling.

One thing the Tory party is worried about is that their core voters would die off at some point, and it is far from certain that the current contingent of people aged 45 would be in the same secure situation in 20 years time.

And many high rate tax payers who are not on PAYE effectively choose how much tax they pay. Starmer's very worst nightmare.

You mean that tax that they don't pay because they're non-doms?

I've always been attracted by the idea that non-doms, who don't pay UK tax because they say they don't live here, should phone the Monaco fire brigade if their house catches fire, rather than the local one that taxpayers like me pay for.

The same applies if they are burgled or mugged. They aren't paying for British police.

The tax Starmer has said will fund the gap in the NHS

They leave and no extra tax. It’s pretty simple.

If you google there’s loads of advice for where to live if they want to avoid it. Countries like attracting them even if we close it off.