Are things in the UK as bad as it sounds in the news?

[Lolobella]

I left the UK in 2017 and now live in Europe. I obviously still follow the UK news closely and visit, although I have no family left there.

In the last few months the UK news have become increasingly grim and concerning. I can't tell if it is just the news painting the country in a worse light than necessary, or if things are genuinely as bad as the news make it sound.

Obviously this is a tough historical moment for many countries, but the doom and gloom in UK news is just on another level and makes if sound like the country is in free fall. Poverty, strikes, crazy energy prices, failing NHS and public services.. Is it really so bad?!

It only includes the property that was built in that given year. Building a new home directly contributes to total output- investment in land and building materials as well as creating jobs. Purchasing property is not included in the measure. Only purchasing goods and services is included.

Never understood how being the 5th or 6th biggest economy makes you the 6th richest economy?? I mean, its like saying because you have 10 adult children who are living with you, working and live in a big house, you are the richest? But at the same time, your combined earnings would still be less than the CEO who lives alone in the penthouse apartment if all 10 kids are on minimum wage (plus your grocery bills and outgoing would be horrifying!)

Its why in a way its easier for small countries to be wealthier.

People do say 5th wealthiest economy though

I’m not sure why you wouldn’t. It’s accurate

in the context that people say - there should not be people choosing between eating and heating in the 6th richest country. i do agree that it is horrifying that people have to live like that. But what does the UK being the sixth biggest economy have to do with whether individual citizens can afford to heat ? A big economy means that there are lots of companies generating GDP (or in UK case, lots of shops and companies offering services to consumers). Does the large economic output necessarily mean that it automatically trickles down to the poorest?

Yes it is but it does not take into account how much we as individuals actually have to spend, its also biased to the SE London.

GDP per Capita gives a better picture but of course people don't like looking at that measure as its not so flattering.

I don't think if any of us were honest, we d look at health or state education and say they are the 5th or 6th best in the world would we?

That’s a different question and for that I’d go to Gini coefficient or overall inequality.

It’s been steady for last decade (ONS) so hasn’t increased.

We are close to Aus and NZ, more equal than US, less so than Scandinavian countries.

However as in pp countries like Norway which are more equal have excellent natural resources, others favourable tax regimes. So maybe the way out is be more attractive with tax. My concern is tending towards high tax, high benefit spiral. I think we have some good assets but need to build on them and then put into public services. Hard but doable.

You can use PPP. Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are the rates of currency conversion that try to equalise the purchasing power of different currencies, by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries.

A country's gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita is the PPP value of all final goods and services produced within an economy in a given year, divided by the average (or mid-year) population for the same year.

France fares better than UK in this one.

data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true

Country Most Recent Year Most Recent Value
Luxembourg 2021 134,753.8
Singapore 2021 116,486.5
Ireland 2021 106,455.8
Qatar 2021 93,521.4
Bermuda 2021 85,192.3
Norway 2021 79,201.2
Switzerland 2021 77,324.1
Macao SAR, China 2021 73,802.2
Cayman Islands 2020 72,481.0
United States 2021 69,287.5
United Arab Emirates 2020 66,766.1
Brunei Darussalam 2021 66,619.9
Hong Kong SAR, China 2021 65,972.6
Denmark 2021 64,651.2
Netherlands 2021 63,766.9
San Marino 2020 59,571.9
Sweden 2021 59,324.0
Belgium 2021 58,930.9
Austria 2021 58,427.5
Germany 2021 57,927.6
Iceland 2021 57,646.4
Australia 2021 55,807.4
Finland 2021 55,006.6
Canada 2021 52,085.0
France 2021 50,728.7
United Kingdom 2021 49,675.3
Saudi Arabia 2021 49,551.3
Malta 2021 47,714.5
Kuwait 2020 47,303.1
46,419.5
Italy 2021 45,936.0
Bahrain 2021 45,411.1
Czechia 2021 44,260.9
Israel 2021 43,721.6
Slovenia 2021 43,624.7
Japan 2021 42,940.4
Lithuania 2021 42,665.3
Cyprus 2021 42,556.1
Estonia 2021 42,191.5
Spain 2021 40,775.3

I think the only way to increase productivity. You can only pay for good public services if there is economic growth. But not in the way the tories do it by privatizing public services and depressing taxes. There is 'good growth' and 'bad growth'. Being the world's safe deposit box for ill gotten wealth is not good growth even if its also an increase in GDP and benefits few people.

I don’t mind strong FS sector. We need the SE to generate high GDP per head. I’d loathe to take that down just to make it seem more equal. We’d end up with even less.

Better to bring other sectors up, we have the foundation and in some cases are doing well but could probably expand on it

FS is a huge tax generator, we really need to grow FS but such a shame that this Jewel in the Crown is now competing with EU centres, as well as traditional ones, which will lead to a smaller sector not bigger, only so much to go around.

However laundering money as we did with Russian ill gotten gains, isn't the way to do it.

I work in FS and its great, but its not enough to power a country. Enough to power london and the surrounding areas.

As long as it doesn’t switch to FS needs to contract I’m fine with building elsewhere

Imo Labour leaders mostly get this (but I have more concern over Starmer than I did Blair)

I don't think FS needs to contract, but it's the slow puncture effect of Brexit. London may still be the No 2 financial centre in the world, but it is actually losing jobs, not gaining them compared to our competitors.

The City had an unbelievable deal in the EU. There was a lot of naivety in Brexit about what we could do but that was definitely the blindest spot of the Conservatives.

Hedge funds who love volatility do not count. We could probably do with less of those

Yes, at least 11.

I was a strong remainer and was so annoyed with Cameron for taking us down this path so I’m not enamoured by Brexit. In fact given polls it could have been an opportunity for Labour to have entering SM on manifesto.

With slight addition around the unknown impact of climate change changing things in the next few decades, without that think it’s a missed opportunity and would prefer that over current policies.

Musing on that list below the countries at the top have really good natural resources or are attractive on tax (may have missed some didn’t scroll back)

I think that’s what makes me nervy, I’d back a Blair (although no PFI this time) but the direction of Labour feels less attractive on that level.

Also appreciate discussion which has been civil re politics / economics not sure why but seems a good change

I am not advocating euthanasia! Not sure what in my post was indicating this.

I think that’s what makes me nervy, I’d back a Blair (although no PFI this time) but the direction of Labour feels less attractive on that level

Different pov but i think Starmer is more to the right of Blair and Brown, so NO to SM or CU, let alone FOM & YES to more private in NHS, which is a dangerous game (for Labour) as private health will need to expand to met the requests of the NHS to do surgery, whilst also meeting the increased demand of their insurance based healthcare clients.

Where will they get staff? from the NHS.

I don't think criticism of the Conservatives is the same as doing down the UK. It suits some to say that. The fact is their decision making has been awful for years, compounded by a decision to make Boris Johnson their leader.

It matters that the UK has good decision making, stability, and reaches out to gain the confidence of international investment.

It is not a good thing that the PM is laughed at, or is considered a bit of a rogue. That is cute and parochial. I understand Brexit supporters thought that was the point but the UK needs to win friends and influence people. Ideologically left or right, voting in comedy leaders like Johnson and Corbyn just shows how little we understand how Britain is perceived.

Annoying the unions after a totally avoidable mistake with the public finances is another bloody mistake. Politics involves delivery, not a bunch of campaigning headlines.

I love the UK but I hate how bloody incompetent the Conservatives have become.

On one hand yes imo the position on SM is a missed opportunity as in pp.

Blair probably would be bolder on the issue, which I’d prefer, if we’re comparing.

But I reckon this is a nervous reaction after being out for 12 years and really not wanting to rock the Brexit vote. Unfortunately but after Miliband polled ahead and lost not taking chances.

Starmer has superficial ‘tax the rich’ approach which is low yield, high vote but we given that list below being tax attractive seems to work for those with low natural resources.

I’d love a different approach.

As bad as things are now, they will be getting much worse next year.
On 25th Oct, the US 10yr/3mo yield inverted, see chart (click to enlarge). This is a classic leading indicator of a recession and a stock market crash - highlighted by the red circles. Again, if you look at the US10yr treasury yield, it started to fall in late Oct. as the US Federal Reserve was increasing interest rates. This shows a divergence between what the markets and Federal Reserve expect to happen next. My view is the markets have a much better grip on reality.

So, I would expect a US recession next year with the UK, EU, China and Japan close behind. In the wider context, the govt. finances of the US, EU, China & Japan are a bigger mess than the UK. But that gives us little comfort.

Yes Starmer is being timid but is also 20% ahead in polls, despite Sunak, so i do get it, despite disagreeing.

Tax? where is the money going to come from? 7m waiting for nhs treatment, thought to be heading to 10m, is damaging our economy, growth & foreign investment.

We can't borrow, we have years of energy support to pay for.

Something is going to have to give, we can't carry on with an NHS like this.

Tax? where is the money going to come from? 7m waiting for nhs treatment, thought to be heading to 10m, is damaging our economy, growth & foreign investment

Tax the super wealthy and profits on greedy companies only looking after their shareholders

Yes he’s ahead and is predicted to win, which who knows but is likely, I know people like the policies and let’s face it even without that the Tories have gifted that popularity.

I still feel uneasy about the policies, for the U.K. - the three main ones I’ve heard so far.

If we’re not attractive on tax level we’re behind most of those countries in that list above - except say those like Norway who have good resources.

I think he’ll get in so actually hope it doesn’t go in direction that concerns me.

I imagine the Labour Party are doing some very intense research on what people will tolerate in terms of tax.

But it's going to be assets and transaction taxes which can raise significant sums. Income tax on higher earners may be a good headline but in money terms not much.