ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Another excellent one to read in full, but here are the highlights:
Key Takeaways
Reports of a group of understaffed and ill-supplied mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space.
President Vladimir Putin falsely presented a meeting with hand-picked women as an open discussion with mothers of mobilized personnel.
An investigation by Forbesβ Ukrainian service revealed that the war in Ukraine has had a serious financial impact on the Russian Federationβs annual budget.
The Russian MoD may have increased the frequency of POW exchanges to soothe discontent in the Russian information space.
A Ukrainian official confirmed that Ukrainian forces killed Iranian military advisors in Russian-occupied Crimea and threatened to target Iranian military presence on Ukrainian territory.
Russian military leadership may be circulating a document stating that Russia needs to mobilize five million personnel to win the war in Ukraine, which Russia cannot do.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions northwest of Svatove and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations toward Kreminna.
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, and influential Russian figures may be setting informational conditions to deflect blame for a lack of progress in the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued to establish defenses south of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and around critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting Crimea to southern Kherson Oblast.
Russian sources and officials continue attempts to shape the narrative around a likely second partial mobilization while denying the potential for general mobilization.
Russian officials are continuing efforts to stimulate demographic change in occupied areas of Ukraine by deporting Ukrainian residents and replacing them with imported Russian citizens.
+++
The New York Times: Nearly a third of the 350 artillery pieces that Western countries have supplied to Ukraine are out of service. To fix this problem, the United States has deployed a repair base in Poland.
Today is the Holodomor Remembrance Day π―οΈ
*an act of genocide of the Ukrainian people, organized by the leadership of the CPSU (b) and the government of the USSR in 1932-1933 by creating an artificial mass famine.
holodomormuseum.org.ua/en/holodomor-remembrance-day/
Belarus Weekly: Ukraine says Moscow to strike Belarus in 'false flag' operation (kyivindependent.com/regional/belarus-weekly-ukraine-says-moscow-to-strike-belarus-in-false-flag-operation)
Ukraine's Intelligence Directorate says Russia plans to stage a series of provocations aimed at Belarusβ critical infrastructure and blame it on Ukraine.
The directorate said Russia will likely conduct false flag operations in Belarusβ Hrodno and Brest regions, bordering Ukraine and the European Union.
β‘οΈUkrenergo: Ukraine to import (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-ukraine-to-import-electricity-from-eu-nov-25) electricity from EU.
β‘οΈNational Resistance Center: 12,000 Russian troops deployed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-resistance-center-12-000-russian-troops-deployed-in-belarus) in Belarus.
[there are more rumours now that Belarus may enter the war, which seem to have a harder tone than in the early months]
β‘οΈUkrainian authorities evacuate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-authorities-evacuate-hospital-patients-from-kherson-amid-russian-attacks) hospital patients from Kherson amid Russian attacks.
According to Kherson Oblast Governor Yaroslav Yanushevych, children and psychiatric patients have already been evacuated from some of the hospitals in Kherson to Odesa and Mykolaiv. [since Russians seem to be targetting hospitals now]
β‘οΈSecurity Service: Leaders of Moscow Orthodox Church in Chernivtsi have Russian passports (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/security-service-leaders-of-moscow-orthodox-church-in-chernivtsi-have-russian-passports).
Law enforcement also found Moscow's manuals on conducting services after the start of the full-scale invasion. Representatives of the church were instructed to misinform parishioners about the socio-political situation in Ukraine and the situation at the front, according to the report. [Seems like the Church, riddled with Russian agents, has actively been misleading people]
In the Kyiv office of the Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion, two flags hang on the wall next to each other: the yellow-and-blue flag of Ukraine and the green-white-and-red flag of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria.
The battalion, named for the first president of the short-lived Chechen republic, Dzhokhar Dudayev, who led the republicβs drive for independence from Russia before his assassination in 1996, has been fighting for Ukraine since the start of Russia's invasion in 2014.
β‘οΈOfficial: South Korea to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-south-korea-to-provide-high-voltage-generators-for-ukraine) 20 high-voltage generators for Ukraine.
IAEA: All Ukraine-controlled nuclear power plants reconnected to the country's power grid (https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/iaea-all-ukraine-controlled-nuclear-power-plants-reconnected-to-the-countrys-power-grid)
The power units of three Ukraine-controlled nuclear plants were automatically disconnected from the power grid following Russia's Nov. 23 mass missile strikes on Ukraine.
β‘οΈSpeaking of Russian military casualties, Putin says 'death is inevitable.'
"In our country, about 30,000 people die in road accidents (per year). About the same number die from alcohol," he said. "We are all mortal, and someday we will all leave this world. It is inevitable."
β‘οΈUkrenergo: Ukraine still faces 30% electricity shortage after Russian missile attack.
Azerbaijan will help the Ukrainian energy sector, in particular, in the supply of electrical equipment, β Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov. [!]
β‘οΈNorway provides Ukraine with winter clothing, howitzer in new military aid package.
The package includes 55,000 units of winter clothing, an M109 self-propelled howitzer, and spare parts for military equipment repairs, the country's government announced on Nov. 25.
The package also includes individual first-aid kits and 30,000 field rations.
β‘οΈEU will give Ukraine 200 transformers, 40 heavy generators to support energy sector.
"Each of these generators can provide uninterrupted power to a small to medium-sized hospital," she said.
France is sending a hundred powerful generators to Ukraine, said Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna
β‘οΈZelensky: Ukraine restores electricity for half of those affected by Nov. 23 missile attack.
β‘οΈ Ukrainian delegation to boycott OSCE parliamentary assembly.
Ukraineβs Verkhovna Rada permanent delegation to the OSCE parliamentary assembly will boycott the parliamentary assembly after the standing committee failed to change the rules to expel Russia, member of the delegation Yevheniia Kravchuk said.
β‘οΈ Stoltenberg: βNATO will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takesβ
β‘οΈ General Staff: Ukraine repels Russian attacks near 8 settlements over past 24 hours.
β‘οΈKyiv authorities: 130,000 Kyiv residents remain without electricity.
β‘οΈPolish Prime Minister arrives in Kyiv, commemorates victims of Holodomor.
In addition to the Polish Prime Minister, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ε imonytΔ arrived to Kyiv.
They signed a joint statement supporting the launch of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU.
Zelenskyy: 'I welcome Prime Minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo in Ukraine! Let's start negotiations. I am sure they will be very substantive and useful for both our countries.'
Armenia challenges Putin as his influence with allies wanes β The Guardian
Armenia has asked French President Emmanuel Macron to lead peace talks with Azerbaijan. And this was a challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin, which indicates the loss of control over regional allies. [ There are rumours Armenia is seeking warmer ties with Turkey which is a massive change, given the terrible occurrences of the early 20th century]
βοΈThe Belgian Council of Ministers has approved the delivery of ten unmanned underwater vehicles and two mobile laboratories to Ukraine, said Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder.
NATO has handed over silencers to Ukraine to protect against Russian drone attacks, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.
UNITED24 Media:
β‘οΈHungarian President Katalin Novak will visit Kyiv very soon at the invitation of Volodymyr Zelensky, the Hungarian Index reports. [if true as reported by UNITED24Media, this should be interesting!]
USAID donated 80 generators to Ukraine, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said
Ukraine will send humanitarian aid to African and Asian countries
We are talking about grain of wheat or corn with a total volume of up to 125 thousand tons.
THere are rumours again about Germany, Poland and the Patriot system but nothing concrete.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that there is not a single thermal and hydroelectric power plant in Ukraine that has not been subjected to shelling by Russia.
Live: Ukraine
[not quite as reliable a source than Kyiv Independent imo but still worth reading]
The Spectator: The US has banned Poland from transferring Soviet MiG-29 jets to Ukraine, while China has promised to "neutralize Putin's nuclear threat".
Initially, the US reacted positively to Poland's idea to transfer its Soviet MiG-29 fighters to the Ukrainian army. But the very next day, March 8, the Americans opposed such a transfer.
The reason for this was contacts with generals of the Chinese army. They believed that this would lead to an escalation of the conflict, so they called on the United States to prevent it. Instead, Chinese generals, who had good private contacts with Russian generals, promised to do everything possible to "neutralize Putin's nuclear threat".
Their efforts were aimed at convincing Russian generals, if ordered to use nuclear weapons, either to persuade the political leadership not to do so, in accordance with Russia's nuclear doctrine, or to sabotage the execution of this order at their own level.
Montenegro supports Ukraine on the way to NATO, - Ministry of Defense of the country
Prague is donating hundreds of pieces of equipment to help provide light and heat in Kyiv and Mykolaiv while the infrastructure is being restored after Russian missile strikes, as well as equipment for medical institutions.
In response to Prigozhin's "bloody sledgehammer" for the European Parliament, Estonian Foreign Minister said he would send handcuffs to The Hague to wait there for the owner of the Wagner PMC to be held accountable for crimes in Ukraine
Kazakhstan is negotiating with the United States to export oil bypassing Russia, US Ambassador to Astana Daniel Rosenblum said. [another indication that Kazakhstan is detaching a bit from Russia]
Foreign companies help Russia to direct missiles at Ukraine - Ukrainian intelligence
To guide missiles, Russia uses its own development GLONASS, an analogue of GPS, it was created in 1982 by order of the USSR Ministry of Defense.
According to intelligence, GLONASS depends on microchips produced by foreign companies. Usually, these are civilian chips, but Russians use them for military purposes. The chips receive and process coordinates from GLONASS, and missiles use this information to navigate in space and target Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure.
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has published (t.me/DIUkraine/1686) a list of foreign companies that continue to produce microchips with GLONASS support. The list includes companies from the USA, Switzerland, Canada, Belgium and Great Britain. Without foreign-made GLONASS-enabled chips, Russians will have to build their own microelectronics from scratch, the intelligence officers noted.
βͺοΈBritish Foreign Secretary Cleverly visited Kyiv and announced new aid for Ukraine worth Β£50 million: the package will include emergency vehicles and armored vehicles. [this may be a repeat, sorry; the amount that countries give to support Ukraine is so much that sometimes I forget!]
Russia plans to stabilize the front in Ukraine in winter, and to resume active hostilities in spring, in connection with which the Kremlin expects that irrecoverable losses of mobilized people will amount to about 100 thousand people - Russian media
Deputy head of the OP Tymoshenko said that electricity supply was restored to Kherson.
The Russian losses are a little up again.
It's been a while and I hope the quackies add a lighter note ... we have no grass any more, and the little gits are digging remarkably deep holes.