Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

DesdamonasHandkerchief· Today 11:15
Agreed ScrollingLeaves Ukr are fighting with one hand tied behind their back. There's also this argument from Jason Jay Smart on Twitter:

The West puts 🇺🇦 in an impossible situation by not allowing attacks within 🇷🇺.

If 🇺🇦 retakes all occupied territories & not one Russian is left in Ukraine; but 🇷🇺 continued launching missile/drone attacks from its territory on 🇺🇦's critical infrastructure, then how can 🇺🇦 win?

^One thread response:
I've been saying this for months. How can Russia truly lose if they can continue indefinitely, and with impunity, terrorizing their neighbours and making large parts of that country uninhabitable? But Ukraine using NATO advanced weaponry to attack Russia also deeply worrisome.
And I have no doubt that this is why Putin thinks he can outlast the West. Even if he doesn't win back territory he likely believes he can, over time, effectively turn Ukraine into a failed state.^

Link to thread:

twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1595432447059140609?s=61&t=IWbqF4fmtNbnVIOrn6YDW

Yes, Russia could just keep bombing indefinitely, year after year till there is not much left. Even when Ukraine manages to shoot down most incoming missiles. the remainder that do get through amount to a lot day after day.

I was interested to see all those bases in Belarus on the map. I bet they are being used by Russia, including that one in the very south west corner by Ukraine and Poland, but does anyone have the facts?

Russia has the means of production to make older bombs and missiles until the cows come home..... they are not a technologically backward country.

I don't see giving Ukraine long range weapons as really helping, Russia is a huge place and presumably these missiles can be moved around?
...attacking Belarus might prove counter productive?

Its a very bleak time for Ukraine.... Russia is in for the long haul.

Thank you all for the lovely Thanksgiving wishes. One thing I'm thankful for is all of the people I've met and interacted with on MN.

❤️

Day 273, November 23rd. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 24 November 2022

Russia terrorist state:
European Parliament votes to declare 🇷🇺 state sponsor of terrorism. It’s the first time in recent history, when 🇪🇺 overtook 🇺🇸 at such important issue. It is now much easier to apply secondary sanctions for all countries that support 🇷🇺 Russia – 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇳 India, 🇨🇳 China.

🔥 Air strikes:
Preparations for each strike takes 🇷🇺 up to 10 days – they include pre and post maintenance of strategic bombers, plans to trick 🇺🇦 air-defense, target recon – so, strikes are usually once per 7-10 days. 🇷🇺 usually combines them to have symbolic meaning – today strikes started during 🇪🇺 Parliament vote.
Today 51 out ot 65 missiles and 5 Lancet drones intercepted.

🔥 Weapons:
🇺🇸 U.S. announced supplies of 150 machine guns with thermal sights specialized for destroying drones, guided artillery shells, 150 Humvees, 100 light vehicles – specifically the items 🇺🇦 is asking for.
No long-range missiles yet.
Each escalation from 🇷🇺 leads to another support package.

🔥 Other:
97% votes in city telegram poll didn’t agree on negotiations with 🇷🇺 due to missing power and water.

🔥 Battlefield update:
Showing deepstatemap.live

🔥 Kherson district:
artillery duels, mostly in favor of 🇺🇦. 🇷🇺 side is easily observable with limited amount of hiding places, there can’t be prolonged use tube artillery and MLRS. Yesterday 🇺🇦 hit 10 targets on left [east] bank with HIMARS, partially in response for shelling Kherson.

🔥 Zaporozhye district:
🇷🇺 are concentrating at Melitopol and main roads, the rest is not easy to defend. 🇺🇦 doing tactical actions to improve their position.

🔥 Huliaipole:
🇺🇦 did massive attacks for 3 days on 🇷🇺 forces, mostly their artillery to regain parity.

🔥 Pavlivka/Vuhledar:
🇷🇺 realized it’s stupid idea to attack.

🔥 Marinka-Bakhmut-Bilohorivka:
there are many videos depicting piles of 🇷🇺 bodies. About 2000 bodies lying near Bakhmut, yet 🇷🇺 keeps attacking.
Some information that 🇷🇺 are accumulating forces (4-6 BTGs) to attempt restore control in Lyman direction. 🇺🇦 is informed and ready to surprise them.

🔥 Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv:
shelling continues mortars, howitzers, some S-300 on Kharkiv today. It takes 40 seconds for S-300 to reach target, hard to intercept. Preventive measures being taken.

🔥 Air-defense systems:
NASAMS and IRIS-T are working practically flawlessly, hitting every attempted target.
🇵🇱 Poland suggested to deploy 🇩🇪 Germany’s Patriot systems in 🇺🇦 instead of 🇵🇱.
Defensive weapons can’t radically change course of war, but Patriot would be valuable addition, and make 🇷🇺 attacks useless. 🇺🇸 U.S. permission is needed for this, and likely won’t happen for now.

🔥 POW exchange:
35 POWs exchanged today. Even Hitler and Stalin had consultations and negotiations even during most despicable moments of war. 🇺🇦 will not give up on their solders, citizens and children. Some data shows there are 10s to 100s of thousands prisoners. 🇺🇦 recently proposed to exchange everyone on everyone.

🔥 Collective Security Treaty Organization:
Summit in 🇦🇲 Armenia. CSTO has lost reputation, failed their members on multiple occasions. Meetings are happening on inertia, expecting organization to get closed.

🔥 Orthodox church:
Security services doing search in Kyiv orthodox church on suspicion of working for 🇷🇺. This organization doesn’t have perspective in 🇺🇦, but likely won’t disband overnight due to large amount of believers. 🇺🇦 will not punish for views, it will only punish for actions, and actions need to be proven, not only known. Over 60 persons were questioned, some 🇷🇺 citizens. Questioning involved polygraph tests.
Head of church did denounce 🇷🇺 attack on first hours of war, but situation inside church is still complicated, there is agent network, that is being investigated.

🔥 Nuclear power:
Nuclear plants are disconnected from network. There are better experts to comment, but sudden load changes due to 🇷🇺 air strikes are not good for reactors, and are increasing risk of accidents.

🔥 Medvedchuk:
V. Medvedchuk, [previously exchanged in first POW exchange] was seen in occupied Crimea. He is expected to recruit for army, as other warlords.

Russia terrorist state:
European Parliament votes to declare 🇷🇺 state sponsor of terrorism. It’s the first time in recent history, when 🇪🇺 overtook 🇺🇸 at such important issue. It is now much easier to apply secondary sanctions for all countries that support 🇷🇺 Russia – 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇮🇳 India, 🇨🇳 China.

Now it makes sense. I did wonder what the relevance was of declaring something we all already knew.

I agree it’s a problem and it would seem according to some reports despite sanctions the Russians are still capable of producing some of their more advanced missiles albeit at a reduced rate.

As far as the idea of hitting bases and launch sites goes…gets very problematic when you start to consider that some of the long range ordnance is being air launched from Long Range Bombers such as the Tu-95 who in theory could have taken off from potentially pretty much anywhere in Russia.

in short targeting Russian bases, including air bases, adjacent to Ukraine, won’t automatically solve the problem.

I can’t see an obvious solution, short term.

Re: hitting Russian bases would not solve the problem.

Wouldn’t it put, say an airfield, out of action? Mightn’t some planes get hit in their hangars? What about their electricity stations?

Woukdn’t it create some sense in Russia that they are not untouchable while Ukrainians are being killed off?

Actually, I can see it would only make things escalate etc, but this is all outrageous as it is.

I would perhaps go further, this is going to prove to be a problem full stop.... med and long term, no pop. can be expected to go back to a pre industrialised time.

ATM the price Russia is paying to behave like this, just isn't enough to deter them.

My solution, not risk free, would be to be prepared to take back the Black Sea, basically tell the Russians stop these attacks on infrastructure or this will happen... i do not believe Putin wants a mainly US vs Russia naval battle, which would be extremely one sided and hugely damaging to him.

But heck there is probably 1001 reasons why this is a stupid idea.. its just i don't see how Ukraine can survive.

"in short targeting Russian bases, including air bases, adjacent to Ukraine, won’t automatically solve the problem.
I can’t see an obvious solution, short term."

From a fighting standpoint, there is no solution, unless you plan to annex Moscow. All wars end in politics. The plan here is to make it so painful for Russia to continue that they are forced to the table and then forced to adhere to the peace terms. I think the crunch time will be Crimea in this case and I hope wiser heads than mine are preparing for that.

It's just as likely that this 'hot' war ends in stalemate or a frozen conflict. That does not necessarily mean Ukraine is doomed to be a failed state. After all, Israel is surrounded by enemies who are pledged to destroy them and South Korea has a hostile, nuclear-armed neighbour to the North. Both countries are successful.

A retired U.S. Army brigadier general has published a piece in the WSJ opinion section about the course of the war this winter. I thought it was quite good, so here it is.

How Ukraine Can Make the Most of the Winter Lull in the War With Russia - Kyiv shouldn’t halt all operations as cold nears. It should rebuild, with NATO help, for spring offensives.

By Mark T. Kimmitt
Nov. 22, 2022 6:35 pm ET

Winter is coming, which will make it difficult for Ukraine to continue its advances against Russia. The next several months—known by historians as rasputitsa, or disagreeable travel—have been the great enemy of Eurasian armies for centuries. Soldiers call this period “General Mud,” shorthand for the harsh environmental conditions that brought Russia’s French and German invaders to their knees in 1812 and 1943, respectively.

But the harsh winter should be seen as a time to make preparations for the spring, not to pause all operations. Ukraine should continue its long-range attacks against vulnerable Russia ammunition depots, command centers and supply lines. With help from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Kyiv should also begin a deliberate effort to reconstitute its military strength in time for the 2023 campaign season.

The various preparations that Ukraine must make are obvious: Harden defensive positions along the current frontlines, integrate replacement troops into units, and issue winter clothing and equipment. This is the leitmotif of any military after a long campaign, but it would be a missed opportunity to stop there. Ukraine needs a more comprehensive approach, which should accelerate the delivery of the still-vast military stockpiles and training capacity of NATO countries to regenerate its army as its Russian adversary struggles to resupply its troops and incorporate its mobilized reserves.

Under this new strategy, allies shouldn’t merely continue to resupply crucial equipment and ammunition, Himars rockets and air-defense assets. They should also conduct operational planning symposia with the Ukrainian military, consisting of workshops on lessons learned in 2022 and operational planning for 2023. NATO can also redouble its efforts to train key leaders and units outside Ukraine to build a second layer of personnel expertise on the operations and repair of Western equipment—and, in anticipation of political decisions, flight training on advanced Western aircraft as well as ground training on more-capable air-defense systems and combat vehicles.

On the battlefield, the West should beef up its support for Ukraine’s deep-fires campaign against supply depots, logistical routes, command centers and second-echelon support units well beyond Russian frontlines. This will obstruct Russia’s attempt to regenerate its own combat power even with the arrival of the newly mobilized troops and Iranian drones. These efforts can be complemented with local attacks against Russian forces as opportunities arise. Keeping the Russians concentrated on shepherding their own combat power and preventing their ability to conduct ground operations will be the best assurance of forestalling any Battle of the Bulge-type counterattack from the east.

These military activities must be supported with a robust diplomatic and information campaign. NATO has demonstrated remarkable unity, but its support can’t be taken for granted. Against a backdrop of high inflation, rising fuel costs and slow progress on the ground, leaders can expect to see their countries’ public support for the war effort wane if they don’t continue to make a persuasive case for why supporting Ukraine is in their interest.

Diplomatic efforts must also continue to isolate Russia from the international community in general, and from arms shipments from such countries as Belarus, North Korea and Iran in particular. The West should pressure neutral allies, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to take a firm stand on the war instead of attempting to appease both sides. These diplomatic efforts should continue to punish Vladimir Putin but also begin to establish the foundations for future negotiations—the prospects of which shouldn’t be unilaterally dismissed or disparaged, given that the chances of Russian defeat or withdrawal from Ukraine, including Crimea, are far from assured.

The Russian military, operating both inside and outside Ukraine, is likely to continue its deliberate bombing campaign against cities and critical infrastructure. But its ground forces appear unable to do anything more than conduct local counterattacks, harden its defense lines, and begin the integration of mobilized reservists.

To write a campaign plan, military planners and logisticians need hundreds of pages for the necessary instructions and timelines. Commanders, however, are expected to provide their goal in as few words as possible, which serves as a campaign lodestar. Gen. Dwight Eisenhower wrote his intent to defeat Hitler’s army very simply: “You will enter the continent of Europe and, in conjunction with other Allied nations, undertake operations aimed at the heart of Germany and the destruction of her armed forces.” Mr. Zelensky’s intent for this winter should be equally simple: “You will reinforce and regenerate the army in conjunction with NATO to push the Russian army out of Ukraine, accept its surrender or complete its destruction on the battlefield.”

Russian forces likely won’t be driven back to the preinvasion borders by the end of this year. Nor will Crimea be liberated by then. But with the proper reconstitution, planning and training this winter, in addition to the resumption of Ukraine offensives soon after the spring thaw, those aren’t unreasonable goals for 2023.

Mr. Kimmitt, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general, served as assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, 2008-09.

very late today but at last:

ISW Key Takeaways

The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

Russian politicians continue to promote openly genocidal rhetoric against Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues to pursue its maximalist goals and is likely issuing vague statements about its intent to mislead Western Countries into pressuring Ukraine into negotiations.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the directions of Kreminna and Svatove.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Russian forces continued defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

The Kremlin is continuing crypto-mobilization efforts at the expense of other Russian security services.

Russian forces and occupation officials continued to forcibly relocate residents and confiscate their property.

a very good analysis of developing frictions between the extreme war-mongers and the more moderate factions as well: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

+++

⚡️ PM: Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector have caused damage (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-sector-has-caused-damage-worth-nearly-2-billion) worth nearly $2 billion.

The European Parliament passed a resolution on Nov. 23 marking Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism,” saying Russia's deliberate attacks on civilian targets, including energy infrastructure, schools, and shelters, violate international law.

⚡️Ukrainian nuclear power plants shut down after Russian strikes.
Three Ukrainian nuclear power plants – Rivne, South Ukraine, and Khmelnytskyi – were disconnected from Ukraine's energy grid after Russia launched a massive missile strike against Ukraine, nuclear energy company Energoatom reported.
After a brief emergency shutdown, the nuclear power plants are back on yet are still disconnected from the grid

⚡️Klitschko: 80% of Kyiv remains without power, water supply following Russian attack. [Our Ukrainian guests, her sister lives in a high rise and there is no water as the electricity is too limited to be able to pump the water up)

⚡️President's Office: Electricity restored (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-electricity-restored-in-15-ukrainian-oblasts-the-city-of-kyiv) in 15 Ukrainian oblasts, the city of Kyiv. (more or less; see previous point)

⚡️Ukraine returns 36 POWs, including Azovstal defenders, from Russian captivity.

⚡️EBRD to provide Ukraine with €372 million for emergency repairs.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will inject €372 million into Ukraine's electricity transmission company, Ukrenergo, in a bid to keep the country's energy system stable amid winter.
The funds will cover emergency repairs of damages caused by Russian bombings.

⚡️White House: US to provide Ukraine with $400 million in defense aid.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced the new aid package in a memorandum.

⚡️Air Force says it downed 51 out of 70 Russian missiles, 5 kamikaze drones on Nov. 23.

⚡️Kyiv Oblast Police Chief: 4 people killed, 36 injured in Russian missile attack.

⚡️Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure cause power outages in Moldova.

President Volodymyr Zelensky asked the country’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, to request an urgent UN Security Council meeting following the deadly Russian attack on Nov. 23.

⚡️New York Times: Pope Francis compares Russia's war against Ukraine to Holodomor.

⚡️Politico: US concerned Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine.
U.S. administration officials estimate that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may use chemical weapons — including those used in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny — in Ukraine before resorting to a nuclear confrontation with NATO if his troops continue to lose occupied territory. The officials stressed there is no intelligence to suggest such an attack in Ukraine is imminent.
Six people familiar with the matter including Defense Department officials told Politico on conditions of anonymity that the Biden administration wants to ensure allies are prepared for such an event, "as well as to mobilize new resources and investments in manufacturing of detection systems for when the chemicals are used."

⚡️Energy Minister: Nuclear power plants to resume work (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energy-minister-nuclear-power-plants-to-resume-work-by-the-evening-of-nov-24-reduce-electricity-deficit-caused-by-mass-strike) by the evening of Nov. 24, reduce electricity deficit caused by mass strike.

⚡️Ukrainian authorities discover (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-authorities-discover-9-torture-chambers-in-liberated-kherson-oblast) 9 torture chambers in liberated Kherson Oblast.
The bodies of 432 civilians killed during Russian occupation were also found on the liberated territories of the oblast, Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin reported on Nov. 24.

⚡️Most trains in Ukraine delayed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/most-trains-in-ukraine-delayed-for-more-than-an-hour-due-to-power-outages) due to power outages.

⚡️G7 foreign ministers to discuss
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/g-7-foreign-ministers-to-discuss-further-support-for-ukraines-energy-system)further support for Ukraine’s energy system.

⚡️ Mayor: Water supply restored everywhere in Kyiv.
Some consumers are experiencing low water pressure as it will take some time for the system to reach full capacity, said Mayor Vitali Klitschko

⚡️ Border checkpoints with Hungary, Romania shut down due to power outages.

⚡️ 4,000 points with electricity, Internet access open across Ukraine.
The so-called “points of invincibility” are specially equipped places where Ukrainians can charge their phones, warm up, get access to the internet and mobile network for free.

⚡️ All Ukrainian regions reconnected to electricity after losing power due to Russia's missile attacks.
Critical infrastructure sites are getting reconnected first,

⚡️⚡️Ukraine returns 50 POWs from Russian captivity.
Among them are 19 defenders of Mariupol, including those from the Azovstal siege, 15 prisoners taken at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, and 7 from Zmiinyi Island

⚡️ Lithuanians complete crowdfunding for 3rd maritime drone for Ukraine.

Details of the new US aid package for Ukraine:

▫️ammunition for NASAMS and HIMARS;
▫️150 heavy machine guns with thermal imaging sights to combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs);
▫️200 high-precision artillery shells of 155 mm caliber;
▫️10,000 120-mm mortar mines;
▫️ high-speed anti-radar missiles (HARM);
▫️150 HMMWV vehicles;
▫️more than 100 light tactical vehicles;
▫️more than 20,000,000 rounds of ammunition for small arms;
▫️more than 200 generators;
▫️spare parts for 105mm howitzers and other equipment.

After the deoccupation of the Kharkiv region, units of the State Emergency Service neutralized 42,000 explosive objects.

The European Union has fully compensated for the shortage of Russian gas through the supply of LNG and pipeline gas from other sources, the European Commission said.

For the security of Poland, it would be better if the Germans handed over the Patriot air defense system to the Ukrainians, trained Ukrainian crews with the nuance that these batteries will be deployed in western Ukraine, – leader of the Polish ruling PiS party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski

In some settlements of the Luhansk region, there are almost no men of military age left, the press service of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration reports.
In the area of the village of Dovzhansky, the occupiers mobilized almost everyone under the age of 60. Promptly, literally in a day, the men were taken out of the village.

⚡️ Germany promises to train 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers by summer

Germany will additionally allocate 1 billion euros to overcome the consequences of the humanitarian crisis in the world caused by Russian aggression
This was stated by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during a speech in the Bundestag on November 23.

We can no longer rely on luck to avoid a nuclear accident – IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi
According to him, negotiations on the creation of a zone free from hostilities around the station are "going positively."

The representative of the Chinese delegation at the meeting of the UN Security Council called on Ukraine and the Russian Federation "not to aggravate confrontation" and return to negotiations

In Russia, the demand for goods with the sign Z has fallen sharply
Telegram channels of the Russian Federation note that the “prestige” of clothing and other items glorifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine has ceased to be in trend after the retreat of the invaders from Kherson.

🦾 The Canadian military has begun conducting a specialized training course for Ukrainian sappers in Poland, said Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand.

☢️ Commissioning is underway at the power units of the Rivne, South Ukraine, and Khmelnytskyi NPPs, Energoatom reports
Zaporizhzhia NPP received power for its own needs from the energy system of Ukraine. All diesel generators are turned off and switched to standby mode.

Interesting point made by Owen Matthews on the Spectator podcast that I hadn't heard before. He states that on Feb 4th Russia secured their article 5-style pact with China, but it's important to note that Beijing were careful to confirm that their protection would not extend to territories that Russia annexed in the course of war. I don't know if this suggests Xi knew or guessed what was coming but either way it's more evidence of the limits of the no limits friendship

Assuming for a moment that such a pact was indeed made, I wonder what it would mean for Crimea.

Jelly, I just listened again and he says the clause included any territories in Ukraine that had been annexed by Russia too so I'm guessing that's Crimea

I think that makes sense, given the very real possibility that Ukraine will at least try to evict the Russians from Crimea.

The economist has just published an article modelling the likely increase in winter deaths, based on the high energy prices. Whilst there are still unknown factors (the severity of the winter), we could see more deaths result from Russian energy warfare than through direct fighting. Please note that the graphs don't appear to include Ukraine, who will suffer from the destruction of their grid.

www.economist.com/interactive/graphic-detail/2022/11/26/high-fuel-prices-could-kill-more-europeans-than-fighting-in-ukraine-has

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/24/putins-chef-wagner-group-sledgehammer-eu-response-called-terrorist/

Disgusting fuckers

I think that’s very threatening and very audacious.

That’s awful.

It's a grandstanding publicity stunt.
If Wagner met any of the EU country armies in the field, there wouldn't be any hammers. They would just be a smoking crater in the ground as the first thing we'd do is establish air cover. Up until now, every theatre they have been in lacked that.

Videos starting to surface of Russian soldiers freezing or frozen to death.

There are rumours, possibly wild ones, that Russia may conscript up to a million soldiers in spring because a lot of mobiks are dying. But we were told that while a third of the 300,000 were sent more or less directly to the front 200,000 were being held back for training. Has anyone heard more about this? were the 200,000 really held back? If so, it presumably makes the idea of a new conscription a bit less likely.

The ISW report is not yet out, I'll post it later when I finally get time

Foreign Secretary is in Kyiv today.

Crimean annexation vote reminder.

Strelkov (found guilty this month over MH17 in Netherlands), in a strange studio debate with time buzzers, on the vote under duress by deputies in 2015. He helped round them up.

twitter.com/AlasdairMcc1/status/1586031849603743744?s=20&t=Kg325zrd12D9fDxr1SENHg

He is often candid. Very strange man. His VK info feed has mostly posted links to Ru patriotic films and occasional news discussion since his going to the front. Yesterday it posted about crowdfunded supplies being sent.