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Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

988 replies

MagicFox · 23/10/2022 21:29

Welcome all 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
80
Igotjelly · 27/10/2022 17:02

My thoughts are Poland is a very different kettle of fish to Ukraine for the simple reason that it’s a NATO member state.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 27/10/2022 17:04

Wartranslated.com

Day 245, October 26th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 27 October 2022

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Svatove:
Pleasant changes

🔥 Bakhmut:
In last 1.5 months 8k 🇷🇺 solders died

🔥 Kherson:
Unpleasant changes, 6BTGs of 🇷🇺 solders added (part from Zaporozhye district), total over 30 BTGs, making liberating very complicated at the moment. However it’s easy for artillery to not miss.

🔥 Belarus:
There are 7 🇧🇾 battalions already for 8 months, about 9k 🇷🇺 solders tasked with chopping wood and improving campsites. There is risk of it becoming dangerous, but that’s pretty far right now, at least over a month.

🔥 Call for peace:
President of 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau visited Moscow, and later forwarded Putin’s call for peace. 🇷🇺 can defend for a month, but 60% of their artillery shells are of 4th and 5th category, which would normally be forbidden to use. 🇷🇺 very well understands lack of perspective, all current military attempts are at improving their negotiations leverage.
Zelensky denied negotiations, he needs to negotiate something and with someone, which is currently not possible.

🔥 Israel:
Zelensky announced new level of collaboration with 🇮🇱 Israel, no details on this.
Unlikely weapon shipments, too soon for that. Meanwhile 2 🇮🇷 Iran officers died, related to deliveries of drones to 🇷🇺. After elections, new 🇮🇱 government will follow long-term interests, which are provided by expert society, which significantly matches current interests.

🔥 Dirty bomb:
Problem will probably become silent, just as bio-labs and weaponized birds. It’s actually offensive that bomb is being called dirty, because Ukrainians have everything clean. If it’s not clean, somebody’s aunt will clean it.
🇷🇺 sources discussing plan of using Tochka-U rebuilt to look like Iskander and launching radioactive materials at area of Chornobyl NPP. This shows complete lack of creativity

🔥 Sanctions:
Provided list for sanctions is going to take some time, while it’s checked by intelligence agencies and confirmed by governments.
2 large 🇮🇳 Indian oil companies not extending deals on 🇷🇺 oil, embargo is starting on 6th of December.

🔥 Afghan solders:
Multiple sources reporting 🇦🇫 Afghan solders trained by 🇺🇸 and 🇬🇧 receiving offers from Wagner. Their performance in European winter would be questionable. Interesting, if they would choose to fight for country, that was trying to conquer 🇦🇫 Afghanistan 30 years ago. Performance of solder depends on morale, skills and equipment, and good morale can outweigh the rest. Morale of any 🇺🇦 solder is much stronger than morale of any mercenary.
Possibly 1000 mercenaries can capture some village with local advantage, but then it would be hit by HIMARS.

🔥 Ukraine victory:
🇩🇪 Scholz expressed readiness to assist for 10s of years.
Western politicians have already announced that victory contours will be decided by 🇺🇦, their task is only to assist. There won’t be any negotiations with Putin ignoring 🇺🇦.
The following conditions are discussed for 🇺🇦 victory:
– Complete liberation of 🇺🇦 territory to 24th of August, 1991
– Extradition of war criminals
– Reparations
– No Putin

🔥 Target planners:
List of 30 🇷🇺 target planners published, however this profession is significantly larger in any military. Their extradition will be requested for war crimes, if that will be refused, it’s possible they will be met elsewhere.

Greenshake · 27/10/2022 17:06

Putin isn’t going to go anywhere near Poland. He is having his arse handed to him by Ukraine on a daily basis, and very publicly, so this was a hollow attempt to flex his increasingly puny ‘muscle’. The whole speech was contemptible and a blatant attempt to initiate negotiations.

notimagain · 27/10/2022 17:25

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

"List of 30 🇷🇺 target planners published, however this profession is significantly larger in any military. Their extradition will be requested for war crimes, if that will be refused, it’s possible they will be met elsewhere."

Probably/possibly alludes to this story that's been doing the rounds over the last few days:

www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2022/10/24/the-remote-control-killers-behind-russias-cruise-missile-strikes-on-ukraine/

If the details in the report are correct it's demonstrates the Russians are massively slack in their approach to key personnel's Personal Security (PERSEC) and their general Operational Security (OPSEC)....no surprises there then.

BTW some of the comments about the dirty bomb did make me smile...

BlessMyCottonSocks · 27/10/2022 17:54

Greenshake · 27/10/2022 17:06

Putin isn’t going to go anywhere near Poland. He is having his arse handed to him by Ukraine on a daily basis, and very publicly, so this was a hollow attempt to flex his increasingly puny ‘muscle’. The whole speech was contemptible and a blatant attempt to initiate negotiations.

Thank you for being the voice of reason.

blueshoes · 27/10/2022 18:02

@DesdamonasHandkerchief thanks for the round up.

Enjoyed the Ukr comments on cleaning the 'dirty' bomb as well.

🔥 Ukraine victory:
🇩🇪 Scholz expressed readiness to assist for 10s of years.
Western politicians have already announced that victory contours will be decided by 🇺🇦, their task is only to assist. There won’t be any negotiations with Putin ignoring 🇺🇦.
The following conditions are discussed for 🇺🇦 victory:
– Complete liberation of 🇺🇦 territory to 24th of August, 1991
– Extradition of war criminals
– Reparations
– No Putin

What are the territorial borders of 24 Aug 1991 and how is that different from 2014?

🔥 Target planners:
List of 30 🇷🇺 target planners published, however this profession is significantly larger in any military. Their extradition will be requested for war crimes, if that will be refused, it’s possible they will be met elsewhere.

I wonder what it means 'they will be met elsewhere'. You mean like Ukr will track them down for assassination? The planners are vile vile people though. They must have a humanity bypass. Great work by Bellingcat to flush out this clandestine group.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 27/10/2022 18:15

blueshoes
What are the territorial borders of 24 Aug 1991 and how is that different from 2014?

Wasn't it in 2014 that Russia annexed Crimea? I expect the Ukrainians want it back.

notimagain · 27/10/2022 18:36

You mean like Ukr will track them down for assassination? The planners are vile vile people though

Just for context every country with long range weaponry (missiles, cruise and otherwise, aircraft, etc) has people locked away (often literally) in back offices doing much the same sort of planning job as these Russians do

I'm all for going after those at or near the top of the food chain who have made a political/military decision to attack targets that should not be attacked according to the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC).

OTOH, and obviously this is just a personal opinion which I know may not be popular , I'm not sure it would be right or reasonable to automatically string up every single young junior officer or SNCO who is tasked with planning a route from latitude /longitude "A" to latitude /longitude "B" and either not told what the target is (possible) or is told it's, for example, a power station supplying a factory building weapons for the Ukraine war effort (also possible)

I'm sure this of course may quickly bring into discussion the Nuremberg defence.....

MissConductUS · 27/10/2022 19:26

BlessMyCottonSocks · 27/10/2022 17:54

Thank you for being the voice of reason.

They are to the point of taking men out of prison and sending them to the front. Putin would have to attack Poland with the babushka brigades, who would be barefoot and armed with rolling pins.

In other news, Russia has threatened to attack American satellites supporting Ukraine, probably StarLink. As I mentioned in the last thread, StarLink has over 2.400 very small satellites in low earth orbit, making them very hard to target. If Russia attacks American military reconnaissance satellites like the Keyhole 11s, the White has already announced that there would be a commensurate response.

Igotjelly · 27/10/2022 19:41

Is Putin still rambling on?

Greenshake · 27/10/2022 20:16

Igotjelly · 27/10/2022 19:41

Is Putin still rambling on?

Yes - just look at this nugget 😂😂

Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
miceonabranch · 27/10/2022 21:14

Oh dear, poor old Putin, he really fancies he's Hitler or something. I doubt Poland are quaking in their boots. He's such a pathetic fantasist. The Walter Mitty of petty dictators. I wish his terminal illness would hurry up and actually become terminal.

strawberriesarenot · 27/10/2022 22:52

Thank you for these threads. They are so stabilising. Every now and then I come on and ask a daft question and get a reasonable, unpatronising reply. This is my daft question:
The Russian people. I know about brain washing and the tv in the truth culture, but even so. They must have heard Putin today.
I cannot believe that they believe the messages they are being fed. They must absolutely know 100% that there have been no attacks on Russian soil. They must know who invaded whom.
They must hear what's happening in Ukraine from people coming back from the fronts. Generations of my family fought in WW1 & WW2 and family history says they never spoke of it much. Although they endured trench warfare and submarines. But times a different now. People must talk. And they have mobile phones with cameras.
Also, how can they possibly believe it's ok to abduct children?
I know there's proganda on both sides. Maybe they ask similar questions about the West.
It really does not make sense to me.
I have worked in the past with Russians. They were no more guilible than anyone else, and compared to Brits, very clear sighted and outspoken.
Thanks for reading this.

XanaduKira · 27/10/2022 23:19

I agree @strawberriesarenot, including also wondering the same about the Russian people. Any that I've known / worked with in the past have been very bright and outspoken, so it's hard to imagine they simply believe what Putin says?!

RedToothBrush · 28/10/2022 00:48

Strawberries, a Ukrainian I spoke described what her sister was saying.

Her sister was living in Mariupol and went to Russia where she had relatives. She had spent a lot of her childhood in various parts of the USSR.

Her sister KNEW that Mariupol was being bombed by the Russians BECAUSE SHE WAS THERE. Yet she was saying she didn't trust the Ukrainian government and she didn't trust the Russian government.

She RETURNED to Mariupol to see the state of her home because she didn't believe what she was being told and she wanted to 'claim' her property as she was told if she didn't she'd lose it. When she returned she found it was condemned. But she didn't believe it until she saw it with her own eyes.

I think it sums things up so well.

She had been told contridactory things, and things that both matched her lived experience and didn't match her lived experience. She clearly didn't know where to find trusted information sources.

The net result after a lifetime of living under Soviet/Russian/Ukrainian corruption and disinformation is that she had no trust in any authority. So she KNEW she was being lied to, but she also didn't know the truth or how to find the truth.

Deprieved of the ability to do that, it limited what she felt her choices were. She could only do things that related directly to her. She couldn't do any 'big actions' because she didn't know how. Her sister in the UK was telling her to get out of Russia (she probably could have still at this point). But she didn't know how to action it, or if she actioned it whether she'd have a home to go back to, cos ultimately all she wanted to do was go back to her house in Mariupol and live there. And she didn't know how to break out the system she was in. She was locked in by passive acceptance and an inability to navigate out of what she was told to do.

She doesn't care about the politics of other people, because these things are for other people - the big people in authority. She is not of this class. It doesn't matter to her, she is not expected to be involved in these conversations. Her opinion on affairs matters this little and she knows it. So whats the point of having an opinion, because you can't change the situation you find yourself in. The only thing that matters is living day to day and surviving.

This is the point: The destruction of the ability to disearn the truth, renders you powerless. If you have no way of knowing what the truth is, you have no power to challenge authority. It is the ultimate device to destroy the power of the citizen and reduce them to a level of passive acceptance of their lot in life which they only have the power to accept and not to question. In this way you learn, you only obey authority because you know if you don't, your day to day life will be even harder, in a country where the culture is so hierachical and punches down on those below.

Critical thought relies on the ability to identify arguments and build an argument on the basis of logical fact. But if there are no logical facts that you can accurately identify and trust, how can you do this? We take this for granted in the UK, as we are allowed freedom of speech and we value the promotion of the truth. Which is why we find it so hard to imagine feeling like we are so unimportant that our opinions are utterly pointless.

I've seen a number of Russians, commenting on Russian culture and its people and how they are extremely passive and merely do what they are told rather mindlessly. It starts to make sense when you realise they have been conditioned from birth to be like this and just repeat what they are told, even if they know it to be a lie because they know that this 'keeps them safe'. In reality at this point, we know here that repeating the lie doesn't keep them safe anymore, but such is the extent of the lie and their conditioning they don't know how to do anything different.

Hannah Arendt talks a lot about this, in her writing about totalitarianism:
The result of a consistent and total substitution of lies for factual truth is not that the lie will now be accepted as truth, and truth be defamed as lie, but that the sense by which we take our bearings in the real world — and the category of truth versus falsehood is among the mental means to this end — is being destroyed.

She also goes on to say:
There always comes a point beyond which lying becomes counterproductive. This point is reached when the audience to which the lies are addressed is forced to disregard altogether the distinguishing line between truth and falsehood in order to be able to survive.

Putin can only destroy the concept of the truth within his own country. He can not change reality as it exists though. Much of what he is doing is nothing to do with Ukraine and is everything to do with maintaining his own power and authority domestically, which relies on the destruction of the very concept of truth. In blurring reality, no one can say for sure if its 1000, 10,000 or 100,000 Russians who have died. All they can say is 'a lot of Russians have died'. They can't quantify the scale of the risk and threats that it poses to them on an individual level. It is only when they see it for themselves and it becomes apparent that their survival depends on their actions at that desparate point that they will cease to be anything other than utterly passive as politics isn't for them, its for elites.

In democracies politics is something we participate in. This is the point.

Hope this makes sense.

RedToothBrush · 28/10/2022 00:55

The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
Hannah Arendt

The aim of totalitarian education has never been to instill convictions but to destroy the capacity to form any.
Hannah Arendt

Her argument is that if someone can make you saying something you don't believe in and you know to be a lie, then they have the power to do anything they like to you. It is the ultimate power, because you lack the capacity to complain. In reducing you to this level of passivity, you have learnt not to fight back.

blueshoes · 28/10/2022 00:57

@RedToothBrush 👏👏👏that is a most cogent and eloquent explanation of the Russian mindset as ever was. Their minds are not free.

RedToothBrush · 28/10/2022 01:22

It is also why words matter. Language gives us the ability to articulate what is happening. When you corrupt the meaning of words, you make it harder for people to describe what's happening.

This is why the meaning of Nazi in Russia has been corrupted. It now means anything that challenges the Russian State rather than fascism. In this way the Russian State can be fascists but no one can describe this, because the word to describe this behaviour has been corrupted to mean something else. Thus the power of language is rendered imputent.

Russia is not alone in this. The corruption of the word woman (but notably not man) and the interchangeability of gender when we actually mean sex, has massive implications for women in being able to describe their lived experiences and if power is used against them.

Corruption of language in this way is authoritarianism in action and isn't restricted to non democratic countries.

Its important to understand the process and how and why its used. The destroy your ability to identify and describe reality and to remove power from you in doing so.

Its a subject I've been passionate about since my teens: the pursuit of the truth. You will never be able to find it completely as it doesn't exist as a singular entity yet it is a concept we should still continually strive to identify and find because it it is the core and heart of holding power to account and stopping abuses of the vulnerable. It is the essence of the beating heart of liberal democracy. Its something that has suffered a great deal in recent years with the growth in disinformation. It is why Trump is such a threat in the US because he also seeks to destroy the power of the truth.

Far too many people have lost their understanding of this. In post war politics there was a greater understanding of this (though not always wholeheartedly pursued by even democracies at times - the threat of the reds in the US during the cold War being the best classic example). This lack of understanding the importance of the power of truth seeking (aka critical thinking and unbiased research) undermines our capacity to advance society and improve science. When ideology takes over rationality, it hands power to those who dictate the pillars of that ideology.

Sorry, rambling now in the middle of the night, but this is really really important stuff.

Natsku · 28/10/2022 06:40

Agree, its really important stuff. Truth, and clarity of language, is important. The absurdities and atrocities quote springs to mind.

XanaduKira · 28/10/2022 06:49

Thank you @RedToothBrush - makes total sense & so eloquently put.

MagicFox · 28/10/2022 06:51

@J_Jakobowski

Today 🇨🇳 Wang Yi held a phonecall with 🇷🇺 Lavrov

New strong (!) wording on 🇨🇳 support for 🇷🇺, an indication of how post-CCP Congress relations with 🇷🇺 may look like

A thread on the 🇨🇳 readout (h/t @boguszmichal)

1 "The Chinese side will [also] firmly support the Russian side, under the leadership of President Putin, to unite and lead the Russian people to overcome difficulties, eliminate disturbances, realize the strategic goals of development (...)"

2/"(...) and further establish Russia's status as a major power on the international stage. It is the legitimate right of China and Russia to realize their own development and revitalization, which fully conforms to the development trend of the times."

3/"Any attempt to block the progress of China and Russia will never succeed. China is willing to deepen exchanges with Russia at all levels, push China-Russia relations and cooperation in various fields to a higher level (...) and provide more stability to the turbulent world."

4/(...) "The two sides also exchanged views on Ukraine and international and regional issues of common concern."

5/ whole readout here: https://t.co/JYiWFR6Ndv

OP posts:
MagicFox · 28/10/2022 06:56

Comprehensive summary of Putin's speech by Konstantin Kisin:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1585717859313143808.html

OP posts:
Errolwasahero · 28/10/2022 07:14

Long-time lurker here with somehow a second log-in… @RedToothBrush thank you for that explanation. It has inspired me to seek out that book and read it. Thanks also to everyone else’s contributions you are all to be applauded

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 28/10/2022 08:28

Excellent @RedToothBrush thankyou. I agree that truth doesn't exist as singular entity but I am also tired of the 'it's my truth' campaign. You can have a story, a point of view, your own recollection but truth has to be verifiable. I do struggle with the liberal use of the word truth for some of the reasons you describe.

prettybird · 28/10/2022 08:40

Your overnight posts were excellent @RedToothBrush

What you describe is eerily similar to the Orwellian world of "1984", both the importance of language to articulate critical thinking (and to challenge authority), hence the creation of Newspeak to curtail that, and how to generate apathy amongst the population Sad

Sometimes I wonder if he had a time machine - just that the date was wrongly calibrated Confused ....like Russel T Davies with his prophetic near future series "Years and Years" Shock

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