Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Oh, they've woken up to the fact ghey're at war have they? Wonder if it will ever strike them that they ere the ones who declared it

😂😂😂

So I guess ruZZian narrative will be that Ukraine started the war by destroying their bridge?
They are truly deluded and …don’t even know what else.

Look at pictures. Train line is higher than the road. How did bomb on train take out the pillars under the road? How do you get a big fuck load of explosives on a Russian train without anyone noticing?

I am open to suggestions on how it happened but neither train nor truck options look plausible explanations - unless the Russians (multiple Russians high up) instigated it. Which from the tone of the Ukrainians doesn't much sound like it - unless they are actively working with a Russian agency (which then becomes more plausible - and in line with security camera footage getting leaked online pretty damn quickly - yeah what's that one all about too. Its something the Russians presumably wouldn't want sharing)

Yep train is in the wrong place....(not sure I've seen any bridge pillars dropped BTW, just a span or spans..)

If you go with boat delivered....forgive the Tom Clancyness here but one for the boaties- I'd guess suitable autopilots exist...so your sneaky lot dressed in black drive it to with x metres then slip away ...leaving the boat to chug on and go boom....

All speculation..wonder if we will ever know>?

Liveuamap At liveuamap
Occupation authorities impose rationing on grocery sales in Crimea

And following with denial. “Clarification later”(confirmed)

Queues at petrol stations in Yalta, despite authorities reassured that enough fuel for 40 days
(Also nowhere to drive anymore)

However, in June Putin’s spokesperson had reassured everyone that Crimean bridge’s safety is guaranteed

Russian Ministry of energy estimates 15 days of fuel

However ridiculous in the sense that Russia has been attacking Ukraine since Feb, this declaration feels quite worrying. Does this now allow for more of an open full on mobilisation? And might it pave the way for more vicious attacks/weapons?

I have not been worrying about the use of so called ’tactical’ nukes (no such thing is there), but now I’m wondering about whether Putin will escalate matters. In a way, what’s he got to lose? There is no off ramp for him now is there?

Never dreamed that I’d be genuinely wondering whether I go buy iodine for my DC… no one has a crystal ball, but those of you with greater insights into military strategies and Russia/Putin, he’s not that crazy is he to resort to any nuclear option?? Given the nearness, he’d be virtually killing off his own people, not to mention risking his own life.

Mykola Bielieskov at mbielieskov
Just want to remind that in 1920 military force (RU White Army) which relied solely on Crimea as its base for operations could not sustain fighting for long given limited peninsular resource capacity. Without Crimea bridge whole RU southern front will crumble quickly and easily.

Deadmansitting at deadmansitting0
Sort of true, but there is still the land bridge (i.e. via Mariupol) and ships, but it definitely got a lot harder now.
Is the push to Melitopol coming now?

Mykola Bielieskov at mbielieskov
There is no land bridge in one looks into detail. Railway capacity on UA southern mainland which RU control temporarily is limited. Another proof that there is no land bridge is that transfer of RU forces to reinforce Kherson was done via Crimea not through land bridge.

Interesting there is an historical prescience here. The Ukrainians do their homework on strategy.

@maxseddon "The Kremlin has told state media to say the bridge is not “destroyed,” just “damaged,” and that new supply routes to Crimea are already being set up, @meduzaproject reports"

Stamp collectors you are in luck. We have a sequel to the popular Moskva ones

Oz Katerji at ozkaterji
Lmao the Ukrainian Post Office have already released a set of commemorative stamps celebrating the destruction of the Kerch Bridge this morning.

(link to the official Ukrainian PO in this tweet with image below - source verified)

It appears as if its the bridge with a Leo and Katie Titanicesque couple

@DrBlackbird this article addresses your questions pretty well I think:

jacobin.com/2022/10/ukraine-russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-risk/

If it was a train bomb that can only have been one element if the attack yeah. Multiple attacks maybe?

Whole thing is amazing. Don't fuck with the Ukrainians.

Sounds like special forces involving a boat and possibly a truck.

Comments on the BBC suggest that strategically and symbolically this is a big moment in the war with reduced capacity to resupply troops.

Putin launching an investigation seems to be playing for time of obsufication to avoid humiliation. Russia is running out of options now and I think talk of the 'off ramp' is going to accelerated over the autumn.

I think it was telling the Ukranian President said he did not care about Putin's fate as in his heart of hearts he wants Putin in court for warcrimes on his people. Possibly be remains realistic about the possibility of prosecution of senior Russian leadership so maybe this only sort of ramp available?

Personally I think the news we may wake up to over Winter is that of Putin's deposition and some international concern about the new leadership.

ISW Key Takeaways

Western and Russian reports of fractures within the Kremlin are gaining traction within the Russian information space, undermining the appearance of stability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have waited to announce that he had replaced Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Aleksandr Chaiko until he needed to use Chaiko as a scapegoat for Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing battles north and northwest of Kherson City.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

Anecdotal reports of poor conditions for mobilized personnel in the Russian information space are continuing to fuel the accurate narrative of Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) incompetence.

Russian officials offered basic concessions for mobilized men and their families on October 7 but continue to rely on local governments and other non-federal institutions to provide support, including food and training, to newly mobilized men.

Russian occupation authorities in Donetsk Oblast are continuing to forcibly mobilize Ukrainian civilians, belying Russian claims that residents of newly-annexed territories will not be mobilized.

Ukrainian officials in newly liberated Kharkiv Oblast continue to uncover Russian torture chambers and other human rights abuses.

Russian occupation officials have likely failed to repair necessary civilian infrastructure in occupied and illegally-annexed parts of Ukraine in time for winter as temperatures drop.

in haste

Andriy Yermak, has been tweeting some emoji tweets the last few weeks.

From yesterday, he tweeted this

twitter.com/andriyyermak/status/1578305195427393536?s=46&t=2av5COZ5eoFtHXfHupu6vQ

As was discovered in previous threads, cotton = clap = 💥

I can't put my finger on why, but I think the Ukrainians have something big planned for this weekend. 😁😇🙆

Do you have any more predictions for us? Lottery numbers?

RedToothBrush · Today 07:32
Biden is feeding his ego to an extent by saying you are tough. It's diplomacy at a time things domestically are shit. The US want to prevent a show of strength 'necessitated' by the US laughing and poking him.

What you say makes sense imo. Also by saying what he does Biden gives himself the gravitas of a serious defender of the world against such threats and this will help him at home

Great news about the bridge. It looks like one side of the road is missing a section now and the rail line is blocked. Whether a truck exploding, two or more missiles hitting, or something else, it is a blow to Russian effectiveness and pride.

I think we have to hope that putin is deposed before he gets himself into such a state that he tries to launch nuclear weapons. He must be apoplectic about the bridge 😄 I can't see those that have supported him within the Kremlin wanting to prop up such a weak, incompetent leader.

But even if he does try to launch them surely a weak incompetent leader is the last one you would follow into nuclear war.

But if a segue but this analysis from David Rothkopf about how comparisons with the Cold War are unhelpful is hopeful and makes important points about the future, particularly regarding the US-China competition and Russia's role in it.

On Biden's Armageddon comment:

"Evocative of the worst days of the Cold War as Biden’s remarks were, they should not produce the kind of eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation that marked the Cuban Missile Crisis and the darkest moments of that period. That is because not only is Russia comparatively weaker (as has been demonstrated in Ukraine) and the West comparatively stronger, but also because Russia is clearly the junior partner in its evolving relationship with China. And in respect to that relationship, for Russia to use nukes would be both anathema to China’s need to maintaining global stability so it can focus on the economic issues that are pivotal to its own cohesion as a nation. Further, of course, Russia using a nuclear weapon would undermine China’s security interests as the resulting response to Russia would undoubtedly profoundly weaken a security ally on which the Chinese had been hoping they could depend. In other words, China no more wants Russia to go nuclear in Ukraine than we do. And that is something that we and our allies can work within helping to manage this situation—just as working with China will be essential to addressing many other central issues of the decades ahead. This includes the climate crisis (as cited above) to pandemics, and from regional conflicts to regulating and securing the internet and next generation technologies."

www.thedailybeast.com/russia-and-opec-are-driving-us-and-china-into-an-unlikely-partnership

Concerned this will lead to escalation from Putin.

Yes, and I'm hoping that those around him are realising this and won't support him if he flips and wants to launch.

I am looking forward to seeing footage of panicking Russians leaving Crimea.

I'm living for it 😆