Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

Placemarking. Thank you to all contributors

Thank you. My point was that could these weapons programmes be accelerated. Specifically because of the way this war is having to be fought. The wars over the previous 30 years relied on 'shock & awe', but even now the issues around Taiwan are whether China really could take it.

Littoral vessels and air power are only good to a point. If you want to take a nation you have to go into their homes. That requires infantry. My point was is the term 'necessity is the mother of invention' key in the development of AI and robotic infantry. I do not imagine for one moment that drones operating at room height would ever be classed as air power.

Ex infantry btw.

I could tell. 😀

And I agree, there's no other way to take and hold ground or destroy your adversary's ability to wage war, at least at the tactical level.

US Army doctrine is to develop hybrid light infantry (human) with robotic combat support and lethal autonomous weapon systems. This is from 2018. I'm sure capabilities have improved greatly since then, especially with advances in AI cloud computing.

Developing a Light Infantry-Robotic Company as a System

In addition to being force multipliers, there are big economic incentives to do this. Robots don't need housing, pensions, or leave. They don't even sleep.

Me too. I watched the video. Like the idea that these Grey Eagle drones can loiter and support ground troops when needed, like a guardian angel.

Isn't the downside of larger drones that they're much easier to spot for air defence systems? Ukraine has been given a fair amount of Bayraktars, but quite a number of them have been shot down.

Correct, that's why the US started supplying the AGM-88 missile to the Ukrainian air force. That missile is designed to target the radar units of Russian air defense systems, and there are reports that they are having an effect. As Russian air defenses are destroyed the large drones can come back into use.

It's been effective enough that Russia is moving air defense systems from St. Petersberg to Ukraine.

Russia transfers missiles from St. Petersburg to Ukraine

Interesting post on sky news about the Mexican minister speaking with Ukraine and Russia about a 5 year Truce. He said talks will begin immediately with both parties to try and achieve this.

I know we have to stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes but if some more influential countries were interested in peace sooner rather than later I'm sure talks would be further ahead by now.

Maybe this escalation could kick-start peace negotiations again since they broke down.

The only peace negotiation that can happen at the moment is that Russia fucks off Ukrainian territory. There's going to be no truce until then.

There's an increase in arsen cases in Russia of local government administrative buildings and military recruitment/processing units (voyenkomats).

Abramovich apparently played a part in negotiations to free POWs.

Your post is about losing the initiative. Which is a really, really bad idea.

A truce to allow Russia to re-arm itself is a really, really bad idea (cannot stress this enough). Six months is what Russia is aiming for to replenish its troops. Stupid that btw. See other posters upthread as to why as sanctions bite Q1-2 2023 and Winter has its work to do, the Kremlin will weaken.

Five years. A lot can happen in that time. Russian forces could be flooded with Iranian drones (backfilled with nuclear technology), China could find a way to silently buy out parts of Russia with its Belt and Road programme. African conscripts etc...etc..

You may like a truce. That is fine. But it is not for me. And definitely not five years.

Just watching the BBC and they were interviewing young men leaving Russia. Obviously some that are just trying to escape conscription but one young man had me in tears. Just saying he wishes the World would rescue Russia and Ukraine from Putin.

I know the Russian population are seen to have a lot to answer for but so many of these people are just that, people. Human beings like you and I. They’re scared and they’re powerless to change anything. It must be terrifying if you don’t agree with the actions of your Govt but you know the World hates your country.

Interesting post on sky news about the Mexican minister speaking with Ukraine and Russia about a 5 year Truce. He said talks will begin immediately with both parties to try and achieve this.

The President of Mexico has been a disgraceful supporter of Russia in the war. The Ukrainians rightfully won't touch this with a barge pole.

It must be terrifying if you don’t agree with the actions of your Govt but you know the World hates your country.

This is a key point. Western people do not hate Russian people. We want them to have a better future. We equally hate the Kremlin.

In WW2 we took on an equally bad fascist regime. In Britain we sent young men away knowing that not all would come back. We sent them into foreign lands. Sometimes halfway around the world. We got on with it and took the pain.

Many died. That is the risk we take and it is a roll of the dice for individual families. The risk you may never see your son again. Or, nowadays your daughter.

But where is the Russian population in this? Where are they really? They need to come out on the streets more as a nation. I am not of the opinion they really feel oppressed. It is just too comfortable to bunker down and have a little bit less.

Maybe they really do love Putin because they hate the West for what we have been able to achieve through our own values. That says a lot about a sizeable part of Russian society.

Unfortunately I think there is a fair amount of hatred against Russian people within the UK. I have Russian colleagues and the vitriol aimed at them in recent months has been absolutely disgusting.

Its easy to say people should be out on the streets when we live in a society that allows for that. Those Russians arrested for protesting face upwards of 15 years in prison (think gulag type affair) for so little as voicing an opinion.

And those with potential influence find they suddenly have to be very careful of high windows and umbrellas.

In terms of hating the West I think many of them do, but largely through fear. Here has been generations of indoctrination and spoon feeding of messaging around the danger that the West poses. Many have no access to alternative views and so know no different. It’s a very genuine fear. Must remember too that to date (and may it stay that way) only the US has used a nuclear weapon in anger.

I think if we ever came to the stage of conscription again we’d face a very different reality to that of WW2. And even at that Blitz spirit is largely a myth.

Those Russians arrested for protesting face upwards of 15 years in prison (think gulag type affair) for so little as voicing an opinion.

Yet we sent hundreds of thousands of men into war expecting a significant minority never to return. Not 15 years in prison. I do not think you are comparing like for like here.

I would go into war to defeat Putin. My sons would too. Is it not obvious that if he wins in Ukraine, then that is it for Europe? Everything from Botticelli to Bowie over.

In return for freedom from oppression, we might ask for a lot more Russians to get out on the streets and risk 15 years in prison. They might, just might in sufficient quantities never have to go there.

Promising news.

mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1573337663561777155 UN panel of independent legal experts finds that children as young as 4 have been raped and tortured by Russians

I’ve just seen an interview with a Russian lady called Nadezhda Tolokonnikovadje she was sentenced to two years in prison for going against the regime. She revealed her family had been poisoned with a nerve agent after she was arrested/sentenced. It’s not just the person protesting that’ll suffer, their families will too. Must be an awful time to be Russian. What are they hoping to achieve by sending civilians with no military experience- cannon Fodders!

There were also reports of a baby.

There can be no truce. Ukraine will not let up the pace of de-occupation. No right minded nation would expect Ukraine to accept any 'peace' terms from Russia other than immediate withdrawal.

I hope everyone of the perpetrators die, get permanently maimed and/or are brought to justice.

www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-push-for-accountability-over-alleged-russian-war-crimes-in-ukraine-11663867423

Alleged Russian War Crimes in Ukraine Are Focus of U.S., Allies at U.N.

As Moscow’s threats escalate, the West is using the U.N. meeting in New York to gather international support

WASHINGTON—Facing Europe’s biggest humanitarian crisis in decades, the U.S. and its allies used Thursday’s United Nations Security Council special session to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and call for an investigation into Moscow’s alleged war crimes, in the latest step to push back against President Vladmir Putin and Russian aggression.

“We support a range of national and international efforts to collect and examine mounting evidence of war crimes in Ukraine,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the meeting. “We must hold these perpetrators to account.”

France is leading calls for the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute crimes of atrocities in Ukraine. But it proposed few concrete measures, and how the process was supposed to move forward couldn’t be determined.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, told reporters on the sidelines of the meeting that Kyiv supported continuing efforts to create a mechanism to hold Russia to account, but that providing Ukraine with more weapons was critical to prevent more atrocities from taking place.

“The only feasible way to put President Putin and his entourage on trial is to establish a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine,” he said later at the meeting. “I reiterate my call on all states to back this undertaking for the sake of the very basic principles of humanity and the U.N. Charter.”
...

Twitter thread about how the referendum is being conducted mobile.twitter.com/BBCPaulAdams/status/1573317120154562560

DuncinToffee· Today 08:38
Still reading and trying to keep up, thanks for the new thread

This is true for me too. Thank you so much to all you who have contributed to explaining and exploring the latest news.

breaking:

⚡️Russia announced turnout for "referendums" in the occupied territories of Ukraine at the end of the first day:

• Kherson region - turnout 15.31%;
• Zaporizhzhia region - turnout 20.52%;
• «LNR» - turnout 21.97%;

• «DNR» - turnout 23.64%.

That low a turnout means no genuine legitimacy. It's odd that Russia actually publishes that. Seems iffy to me.

I'm sure the vote will be 'yes', whatever the reality is.

⚡️Meduza: Russia plans to mobilize 1.2 million conscripts for war against Ukraine.

Meduza, a Russian media outlet, cited a government source. In Moscow, the authorities seek to mobilize up to 16,000 people, according to a source close to Moscow's City Hall.