Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

This thread is fucking repellent.

As an accountant, old enough to have seen a few recessions, I'm very happy for a thread like this. In 2019, someone cleaning offices at 7am, before working in retail and pulling pints a couple of nights each week appeared invulnerable to any downturn. Lockdown pulled the rug on everything while the overstretched mortgagee commuter with worn out credit cards often received a boost.
When I step into a major chain coffee shop, £3 gets me a quarter of an ounce of coffee, hot water and a paper cup. Would much happen to the bottom line if the best barista was paid £20 per hour?
In 2008, the only hairdresser that was full where I live, catered to wealthy women of pensionable age, what finally killed the business was the clientele literally dying off and younger retired women sticking with livelier businesses.
In boom times, the biggest profits come from owning the least amount of productive assets, in tight times, owning the premises, having no debt and the confidence of your staff can keep the place busy.
There will be surprises (good and bad) in the next couple of years. As with any emergency, look after yourself first in order that you are able to help others. Put family first, you will find out who your friends are as the chips fall.
Good luck to all.

The OP has asked a valid question. There's nothing morbid about it.

It was the flippant, parlour game tone that made it inappropriate to me. A bingo for the loss of people's livelihoods.

Ones that will suffer:DIY and homeware shops,Children's extra curricular activities,Private schools

Private schools is an interesting one. I work in one in an otherwise broadly deprived area. We expected a downturn this year. It hasn't happened and in fact, we are taking in about a third extra in year 7 compared with last year. It may not last but it is an indicator that those with spare cash for school fees are not as concerned as the rest of us.

@RunningSME i know exactly what you mean and often think the same ie should I be using savings to still go fit the odd meal out etc to help keep these businesses afloat as they are probably relying on people who can still afford it. However, having a young family I m inclined at the moment to put any extra into savings pot as you don’t know what is going to happen in the future ie nursery fees, mortgage, gas prices going up even more. It’s a tricky one

Big cinema chains like Cineworld - the combination of Lockdown, lack of enough big box office films, ticket price, digital streaming happening a few weeks after theatrical release, people having huge TV's and being more comfortable at home and the cost of heating the cinemas and the costs of maintaining their large footage mean they are really in trouble.

Pubs again a sector already in trouble. Having to pay uncapped energy prices might be the final nail. Plus, the location and square footage of sites (often with car parks) means they are ripe to sell off to be knocked down to make way for housing.

I definitely wont be cancelling my dog groomer or my own hair colour unless I absolutely had to. I was going to get a dog walker when the dark evenings come but have revised that and we are going to get some head lights and do longer evening walks in the dark ! I am really going to try harder to support small businesses and buy less from Amazon.

If you look at the replies, some are being quite serious although others are being quite flippant. In this thread I can see that amongst the flippancy there are some valid observations by accountants, business advisers/consultants, and others of that ilk.

It's a valid question, but maybe it needs a more serious thread. Unfortunately MN doesn't offer the tools or support to keep such threads tight to topic and tone.

@SapatSea I agree re the cinema chains the squeeze will be on them but again if its cheaper to be warm in the cinema than to burn the heating at home...
The Lightyear film was on Disney+ the week after I planned to take LO to see it in the pictures. Went to set Super Pets instead.

Never happened. Charles Dickens made it up to enhance the story line of Tale of Two Cities.

The active female revolutionaries were mainly young and middle aged women , usually quite low status such as market women and ladies of easy virtue. They were pretty much rent a mob for the male middle class agitators.

A stock market crash would change everything

Nail bars, salons, eyebrows, fag businesses will do well. People never go without those.

Thanks. That would mean my son loses his job!

No one seems to have mentioned the stock market!

Smaller travel firms.

It’s a useful and interesting topic. It has attracted a wide variety of posters, with different experiences and attitudes. I’m finding it very informative, so thanks.

Not is he was on R4. You have to be left of KH to be invited on.

I think smaller breweries, craft breweries etc, will be screwed. Huge energy bills for their equipment to brew the beer, then struggling to sell to pubs who have less money to spend because of their own increasing bills.

Im from the north and can see fish and chip shops closing... they are an essential, they where keeping us going through covid because its the only good thing we could still have.

*cant see

Pubs & coffee shops will fair better than restaurants. Purely with the logic people are social animals and meeting up with others on 'neutral' territory has always been a thing. A few drinks is cheaper than eating out but has the same benefits from a social stance.

Hairdressers (my local one, though still having a hairdressing option, has changed to an Age Reversal Clinic on the whole)

Pubs . To be honest I am not that surprised re pubs . Went to a pub last week for lunch (rare for Me but was a treat with DD). A vodka and lemonade and small bottle of Corona was £9.95!, Could buy a bottle of vodka for a bit more than that

loll

I agree with Her . Also, Midwifes .

This is completely true. If you can afford it, you certainly should continue to spend. To employ a cleaner, gardener etc. spread that wealth and it goes on doesn’t it, they pay tax, they buy things in shops and the economy goes on.

i never understand the mentality of cutting council type jobs, it encourages local jobs and local spending. I’m sure an economist knows the figures if it balances out or not.

Not so much thinking of types of business, but I think that those who have children will be hardest hit. I think standards for children are more non-negotiable.

A single person could live and doss in one room and turn of heating in rooms they don't use; greatly increase their hours in the workplace to be warm there, even shower there, and to generate more income; eat the discounted supermarket ready meals, leaving it till the evening itself to decide what to have; entertain friends to stay for a contribution, go to lodge in a shared house or take in a lodger.

Odd ways of saving money, like lighting a garden bonfire and baking food over it, would just be so much easier without little kids running around. There's a bit more leeway with using wet wipes to clean yourself and wearing jumpers for a few days than when you are sending your kids to school and under the scrutiny of staff there. And, single people can 'choose' to make sacrifices: to be uncomfortably chilled to the point of not sleeping well, whereas parents cannot inflict that on a child. And children have important nutritional needs for their health, whereas adults have laid down the corner stones of strong bones and health, during their own 'easier' 80s, 90s, 70s childhoods.