Page 9 | Martin Lewis issues a stark warning

GreenLunchBox · 2022-07-19T20:51:37+00:00

And I'm really quite scared what's going to happen 😭 https://twitter.com/MartinSLewis/status/1549305060320067585?t=2QJm_R-HS3gXtUUCoy_8tA&s=19

Original poster

GreenLunchBox · 20/07/2022 14:35

TuftyMarmoset · 20/07/2022 12:11

So many people try not to earn more than £50k because it's not worth the tax increase, so this affects productivity.

The tax threshold has been frozen for so long. People who's pay has increased slightly to put them into the 40% band have effectively received a pay cut due to this

You only pay 40% on the amount that’s in the higher rate band. You still pay 20% on the amount in the basic rate band and nothing on the personal allowance (unless you earn over £125k).
The thresholds being frozen mean you may pay more tax than in previous years but you’re still going to be better off in a given year by taking the pay rise.

I'm not stupid, of course I know you're technically better off as in you'll have a few pennies more than if you didn't do the extra work. But my point remains.

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lastminutedotcom22 · 20/07/2022 14:43

@GreenLunchBox
£500 a month is just crazy but unfortunately we will all be in the same boat. It's very worrying;
I've done the Sums and it looks a bit bleak really;
I think Christmas could be a bit of a Lean one

Original poster

GreenLunchBox · 20/07/2022 15:31

NamelessNancy · 20/07/2022 08:36

Spot on. The likelihood of the Tory party now choosing a multi-millionaire (billionaire?) leader to impose further cuts and austerity on us is boggling my mind too. (Not that the others would be any better).

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Judging by the apologists on here people are crying out for more of the same. FFS, I give up.

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RockandRollsuicide · 20/07/2022 15:36

So we need to know someone's bank balance then and background before choosing them as a suitable leader?

Blossomtoes · 20/07/2022 15:50

RockandRollsuicide · 20/07/2022 15:36

So we need to know someone's bank balance then and background before choosing them as a suitable leader?

It’s a factor. It’s unlikely that a multi millionaire former public schoolboy will have much understanding of the financial reality of ordinary people. Why do you think Truss is pushing the myth of being brought up in a working class area and Badenoch kept banging on about her burger flipping days?

Original poster

GreenLunchBox · 20/07/2022 16:12

Sweetpeasaremadeforbees · 20/07/2022 12:48

I do think ML is genuinely trying to help people and I'm sure he's saved people a fortune over the years BUT I also think people follow his advice too blindly sometimes without considering their own personal circumstances.

1st - student loans ‘best loan you will ever get’ - absolute bollocks. It’s 500% worse than any other loan I have ever got (10-12% interest rate and direct tax compared to a 1.5% mortgage) and the worst terms and conditions I have ever seen. What other loan can you get that says they can change the terms and conditions/ Interest any time they choose.

Yes I have always disagreed with him over this. And paying off your student loan will affect the mortgage you can get.

I worry that his warnings may panic people into altering their behaviour so much that we are tipped into a recession.

I find his student loan advice infuriating as well.

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ToastTheMost · 20/07/2022 16:26

Blossomtoes · 20/07/2022 15:50

It’s a factor. It’s unlikely that a multi millionaire former public schoolboy will have much understanding of the financial reality of ordinary people. Why do you think Truss is pushing the myth of being brought up in a working class area and Badenoch kept banging on about her burger flipping days?

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According to Matthew Syed, the bank balance/over-privileged background of those who master-minded the poll tax was definitely a big factor on why it was such a monumental disaster. I'd say it does matter. Let them eat cake!

MurderAtTheBeautyPageant · 20/07/2022 16:29

RockandRollsuicide · 20/07/2022 15:36

So we need to know someone's bank balance then and background before choosing them as a suitable leader?

Yes.

BetterFuture1985 · 20/07/2022 16:31

Rosehugger · 20/07/2022 09:53

My pension is doing really well. Surely it's performance over long term you look at, not the last three months?

Yes, and no. In theory if you're young enough you'll be buying up equities cheaply now and they should bounce back. However, it's not so much the pension funds themselves but what they tell you about the general health of the economy. If Investment Managers are pricing in factors that drop the value of equities by 25% then you know that a storm is coming. That storm will include widespread job losses, it is starting to happen. I think talk of labour shortages will have pretty much ended by Christmas.

lookthisway · 20/07/2022 16:34

I think we are heading for a recession of some kind and everyone should look out for themselves, their friends and family. I honestly think that apart from the very rich, we are all in for a rocky ride especially as it looks like Russia will cut gas supplies to Europe.

cakeorwine · 20/07/2022 18:55

FrownedUpon · 20/07/2022 10:01

He’s given out terrible advice about fixing tariffs, so I don’t pay much attention to him. I agree he causes huge panic & stress for some vulnerable people.

I don't know what to say to this comment.

This is NOT advice.

This is him telling people that energy will rise by 64%

I am sure there are analogies from history. But I think the best thing is this - "Hey Chief, I think we are going to crash into this mountain. "

It's a warning that we are heading on a plane into a mountain. People who are telling others on here to ignore this warning....I question their motives.

cakeorwine · 20/07/2022 18:56

Incidentally, have people ever seen the film "Don't look up"

Just asking.....

Hawkins001 · 20/07/2022 19:18

cakeorwine · 20/07/2022 18:56

Incidentally, have people ever seen the film "Don't look up"

Just asking.....

I also recommend the film the big short

SheeplessAndCounting · 20/07/2022 20:10

BetterFuture1985 · 20/07/2022 01:42

I think if we step back from the energy crisis specifically and look at the economy as a whole, the last 12 years have been a disaster. The economy has been successively managed by people who did not know what they were doing with only a partial and limited respite when Philip Hammond was Chancellor (although he was largely constrained by Brexit). The result of bad policy means that the UK cannot withstand economic shocks like an energy crisis. The key issues over the past 12 years boils down to five key problems:

Austerity. There was never any logic in cutting essential spending on public services. All that did was remove investment at a time when inflation was much lower and when we could have "fixed the roof when the sun was shining." Now there is no roof, Osborne sold it. What we're now faced with is inadequate infrastructure that is one of the causes of low productivity and a need to invest at a time when inflation makes that difficult or even impossible.

It also made consumers poorer and less able to withstand economic downturns. What a lot of people never realised is that the UK economy cannot go bankrupt because it has a fiat currency. It can print money to pay debt but the reason it does not do so is to avoid inflation. But remember, printing money is basically quantitative easing and a good question for your local Tory MP is why the money printed under QE was put in private rather than public hands.

Brexit. Like it or not, Brexit creates additional trade barriers both in the form of tariffs and lack of regulatory recognition. This has made it harder to export and therefore harder for UK plc to make money. It has contributed to the weak pound sterling.
Tax rises on working people. VAT went up 2.5%, NI has been increased 2.25% in the last decade and we now have fiscal drag on the tax bands. Cutting taxes now would be inflationary but the government should change where they fall. With rampant house price inflation and labour shortages, we really need people to be incentivised to go back to work whilst the very wealthy ought to be paying more tax either on incomes or housing wealth.
Energy crisis. No doubt this is the primary cause of inflation, which is why suppression of wages doesn't really make that much sense. Yes, if we do too much there will be an inflationary spiral. However, if the government can issue cost of living packages for millionaire pensioners (2 million of them) why can't it do the same for people on middle incomes?
Weak pound sterling. Inflation is far worse in the UK because of low exports caused by Brexit. This means things we import like most of our energy become more expensive. Oil was much more expensive per barrel in 2008 than it is now for example, but because of the exchange rate to the US$ it is sold in we're paying £2 at the pump now compared to around £1.30 then.

Austerity and Brexit together have ruined the British economy in a way that is going to be very hard to come back from. Investment is too inflationary and the Tories are too proud to alter Brexit.

Completely agree with all of this. I've been saying the same. I am amazed people aren't more angry about it when the primary causes are so obvious and could have been mitigated to a large extent by decent Governance.

Rowanberries · 20/07/2022 20:44

I run a service that isn't connected to finance/benefits/income but my staff are saying so many people are already calling in tears because they can't afford to get to work.

Winter is going to be horrendous.

4intheCorner · 21/07/2022 00:59

It's a very bleak outlook. Personally, I'm starting to worry. My business sales are down 70% YOY. I'm looking at returning to my career in January when the busy Christmas period is over.

Any thoughts on what might happen? Surely somethings got to give?

TheClitterati · 21/07/2022 02:31

How are we in this ridiculous situation where the price of basic household essentials is a gamble?

Fix or don't fix? And it's a gamble - so if you did fix six months ago or whenever & the prices shot through the roof and you're not affected by those price rises, someone is paying right?

I just don't understand why this is set up to be such a crazy situation. it's not making any sense to me at all.

Many on here seem confident & savvy. Happy they are getting the best deal. But how are the majority of households in the country meant to know enough to be able to deal with that? I'm an educated person, I investigate & I try to make good decisions, and I just find this insanely complicated.

There is just something so wrong about the entire situation. Not necessarily that prices are increasing but that it's increasing in such an overly complicated way.

Pick to fix & overpay now, or not to fix & pay more later. It all seems to be like gambling to me. The energy sector is guided & regulated by ofgen? Why aren't OFGEN clarifying things?

BalloonsAndWhistles · 21/07/2022 05:57

EmmaH2022 · 19/07/2022 22:54

Ditto
I like him but that was a hell of an error he made there

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I ignored it too and got in quick at the end of last year. Got a fix for electricity which is 32p a unit and 32p a day standing charge until December 2023. Still a rip off but it’s the cheapest I’ve heard of so far. We’re not on gas.

BarbaraofSeville · 21/07/2022 06:11

I ignored it too and got in quick at the end of last year. Got a fix for electricity which is 32p a unit and 32p a day standing charge until December 2023. Still a rip off but it’s the cheapest I’ve heard of so far. We’re not on gas

Which is fine, but not doing that is not necessarily going to be more expensive, therefore not making it bad advice to not fix. That was the point, the fixes people signed up to late last year or early this year were more expensive than the variable rate, certainty usually costs extra.

Between December 2021 and end of March 22, you paid 32 p a unit and 32 p a day standing charge when the variable rate was about 19 p a unit and the standing charge 25 p, so significantly cheaper.

Then between April and end of September 22 the current rates are 27 p unit rate and 48 p daily standing charge, so you're still overpaying by 5 p a unit at the moment but you will be saving about a fiver a month on the daily standing charge.

Then if the rates go up by the predicted 65% in October, you have 2/3 months at the end of the year where you're saving about 12 p a unit and maybe £5/10 a month on the standing charge. But to get that win, you've overpaid for 9/10 months up to then.

It might be better for people who have gas too, because I think gas has increased by a bigger percentage, but in your case, I wouldn't be so sure that you've saved a huge amount if anything, by fixing.

Wheretheskyisblue · 21/07/2022 06:28

If you ignored him and fixed slightly earlier in 2021 though the rates were much better. We fixed in September until March 2024 and got a unit rate of 20p with a standing charge of 24p for electricity and 3.88p/26p for gas.

cakeorwine · 21/07/2022 07:58

It is a bleak outlook for many. There are people who don't have many savings, who don't have much disposable income and who don't have much headroom in their earnings.

Listening to Kwasi Karteng last night night and it's clear the Government don't get it.

Increased petrol prices, inflation at 10%, energy up 64%

Original poster

GreenLunchBox · 21/07/2022 08:28

cakeorwine · 21/07/2022 07:58

It is a bleak outlook for many. There are people who don't have many savings, who don't have much disposable income and who don't have much headroom in their earnings.

Listening to Kwasi Karteng last night night and it's clear the Government don't get it.

Increased petrol prices, inflation at 10%, energy up 64%

What did Kwasi say?

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3luckystars · 21/07/2022 08:33

It sounds like he said what Martin said, except he was just saying ‘this is what is going to happen’ too instead of reassurance or any kind of plan to help those in difficulties.

LimboLass · 21/07/2022 08:36

The energy bills are all doubling … are you not aware of this ? It’s going to cripple us gas and electric for us will be around 400 a month

We are due to renew at the end of the month and out projections are £240 based on current usage and we have several childten. What are you doing to spend £400?

Original poster

GreenLunchBox · 21/07/2022 08:41

TheClitterati · 21/07/2022 02:31

How are we in this ridiculous situation where the price of basic household essentials is a gamble?

Fix or don't fix? And it's a gamble - so if you did fix six months ago or whenever & the prices shot through the roof and you're not affected by those price rises, someone is paying right?

I just don't understand why this is set up to be such a crazy situation. it's not making any sense to me at all.

Many on here seem confident & savvy. Happy they are getting the best deal. But how are the majority of households in the country meant to know enough to be able to deal with that? I'm an educated person, I investigate & I try to make good decisions, and I just find this insanely complicated.

There is just something so wrong about the entire situation. Not necessarily that prices are increasing but that it's increasing in such an overly complicated way.

Pick to fix & overpay now, or not to fix & pay more later. It all seems to be like gambling to me. The energy sector is guided & regulated by ofgen? Why aren't OFGEN clarifying things?

Exactly. And we're all fighting amongst ourselves, the fixers calling the non-fixers stupid. Meanwhile the energy companies admit they're making more money than they know what to do with.

I think we're ALL stupid for going along with it

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