Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

ISW
Key Takeaways

A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the attack. Available visual evidence appears to support the Ukrainian claim more than the Russian, but ISW cannot independently assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it at this time.

Ground fighting continued north of Kharkiv City with no significant change in control of terrain.

Russian forces attempted a limited ground assault in Kherson Oblast and continued conducting combat operations without creating strike groups along occupied lines.

Russian regional outlets reported the recruitment and establishment of an additional volunteer battalion in the Republic of Buryatia and the formation of a reserve battalion in Novosibirsk.

Members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party traveled to occupied Ukrainian territories to promote an organization called “We Are Together with Russia,” likely to present the façade of a “grassroots” call for the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine and to prepare for falsified annexation referenda.

+++

From UkraineNOW telegram:

‼️Killing of the Ukrainian defenders was committed by the Wagner Group (Liga) mercenaries at the direct order by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the formal head of the Group, reports the Ukrainian Intelligence.

The terrorist attack was arranged and conducted without agreement with the head officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The attack was primarily conducted with an aim to conceal the fact of mass embezzlement of the funds allocated for accommodation of the prisoners of war. The provocation was also committed to increase tensions within the Ukrainian society.

📌Technical works aimed to organize the export of grain from Ukraine are completed, deliveries are planned in the nearest future - the Ministry of National Defense of Turkey.

💪On the opposite bank of the Dnipro river, from where the Russians shelled Nikopol, the Ukrainian military destroyed Russian ammunition stock – Chairman of the Nikopol District Military Administration. 💥 The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an ammunition depot in the temporarily occupied Nova Kakhovka [not sure if this is the same attack reported twice]

🔻The International Committee of the Red Cross will try to get into the attacked penitentiary facility in Olenivka. [oh yeah, and then what? comments of 'oh dear oh dear what a shame?']

📌U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had their first conversation since the start of the war in Ukraine.

✍️At the border, Latvia asks the Russians to sign a document condemning the war in Ukraine

⚡️The United States will announce a new package of military assistance to Ukraine “very soon,” said John Kirby, coordinator of the US National Security Council

[Terrible footage of the bombed barracks]

📣 The Pentagon could not give a specific timeframe for the delivery of the NASAMS air defense system to Ukraine, but said it is "making progress on this matter”

⚡️ Finance Ministry: Canada to lend Ukraine over $350 million.
Ukraine’s Finance Ministry announced on July 29 that Ukraine will borrow 450 million CAD ($352 million) to finance social and humanitarian expenditures.
The total amount loaned to Ukraine from Canada is now $1.13 billion.

⚡️ Ukraine receives $13 billion in financial assistance since start of war [however this is very far from enough to keep Ukr solvent. They are in dire financial trouble and many services are being cut back to ensure military spending continues, apparently]

see: ⚡️ S&P downgrades Ukraine's credit rating as default becomes ‘virtual certainty.'
S&P Global Ratings downgraded Ukraine from CCC+ to CC, meaning a negative outlook, after officials asked foreign creditors for permission to delay payments on its external debt.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks in several directions.
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Sloviansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka.

⚡️ Gazprom says it halts gas supplies to Latvia.
Russian gas producer Gazprom accused Latvia of violating the contract. The company didn't specify which condition had been violated.

Ijsbear
there is provably no point trusting Russia (or China tbh, given how they steal technology).

I think judging a government by how they behave towards their own citizens might be the way to go about things. Can an ordinary Russian or Chinese be sure he or she won't fall foul of the powers-that-be without intending to, for example by living in the wrong place or having the wrong parents, and suffer badly for it?

On that basis neither China nor Russia is to be trusted to behave in any way decently. In most other places (other than overt dictatorships) it depends on who is in power at any given time: some political parties are less loathsome and lying than others. In China and Russia it is always the same boot stamping on the human faces.

Good rebuttal of Mearsheimer's position by Joe Cirincione: www.russiamatters.org/analysis/whats-missing-mearsheimers-analysis-ukraine-war

Ijsbear
Thank you for your takeaways.
Re: the bombing/detonating of bombs hidden inside the prison, and the release of the video of the castration and another of a brutal killing, I saw a comment under a WarTranslated post that they may also be hoping Ukraine will commit revenge atrocities which will encourage the West to think they should just leave these brutal regimes to fight each other.

Whether that reason for Russians being so ready to film and disseminate their atrocities is really true or not, I think Ukrainians should be warned against retaliating in kind because it would have a dampening effect on the West’s willingness to help.

The Ukrainian reaction seems to have been to publicise what was done, shout for the UN and humanitarian organisations to investigate, and ask for the Russian government to be classified as a sponsor of state terrorism.

Individual Ukrainians may be tempted to retaliate, but I don't think it will become Ukrainian policy: they have a lot to gain from being perceived as not being barbarians. It wouldn't surprise me if they put a Ukrainian who committed an atrocity on trial for war-crimes themselves, in order to retain their good reputation.

MagicFox·
Today 13:17
Good rebuttal of Mearsheimer's position by Joe Cirincione:
www.russiamatters.org/analysis/whats-missing-mearsheimers-analysis-ukraine-war

Thank you, MagicFox. That is good especially as it admits where mistakes were made by NATO while rebutting the main assertions that it has all been NATO’s fault.

www.america-times.com statement to the UN from the permanent representative for Albania

Good statement from Albania. What more is there to say. Russia's lies and aggression are plain as day.

Just caught up on this thread after avoiding for a few days and feel sick, the castration, the blowing up of the POWs, its utterly sickening, barbaric. I don't understand how a normal human being can think to do something like that.

minsmum · Today 13:56
www.america-times.com statement to the UN from the permanent representative for Albania
Thank you. That is an impressive speech with a clear message. I didn’t realise Albania would be so clearly opposed to Russia rather than more like Hungary.

It surprised me too that's why I thought it should be posted. It seems that it's not just the Baltic states that Russia has worried

I don't understand how a normal human being can think to do something like that

I don't think people who grow up with interested parents and stability and love and good boundaries do.

As someone said right at the beginning of these threads, a lot of these soldiers don't come from the cities but from small, very poor villages with drunken fathers who beat up the mother and children. Poor education.

You grow up without compassion and with brutality, then you go into the army because it's the only place you can get money and more brutality is encouraged. Then Russia has encouraged yet more brutality.

Plus, and Im sure that many men reading this will be offended but Im afraid I think it's true, that young men from unloving backgrounds, once let off the leash go wild and encourage each other into worse and worse. (in a much lesser way it can happen in the UK too, though obviously it's not a war situation and tends not to be reported that much)

A new study by a group of economists at Yale University says that Russia's economy is indeed reeling from sanctions and corporate departures.

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy

Abstract
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.

That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.

Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

• Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas
• Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy
• Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst
• As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base
• Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood
• Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy

Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

Download the visual slide deck accompanying this research monograph here: yale.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo

@Ijsbear That makes sense, though still hard to comprehend. Its just so sad, that people can end up like that, and then inflict that pain on others. Every time you think that humankind is progressing, something reminds you that its not.

I think humanity is improving.

It looks like in the ancient and middle ages the average death age was young (not easy to work out because infant mortality skews the results but this article is interesting www.bbc.com/future/article/20181002-how-long-did-ancient-people-live-life-span-versus-longevity*) It's well over 75 now in most European countries.

People lived violent lives (www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26770334,
and there seems to be some evidence that wife-beating was extremely common (archaeology.co.uk/articles/features/reading-the-bones-spitalfields-human-remains.htm)

The reports of city sieges and warfare in the middle ages is horrific - well, it's Russian in its barbarity. But the later wars in Europe became much less appalling in general savagery I think (prepared to be proven wrong!)

Medicine was nowhere near as highly developed and fewer people could access it. Education was extremely patchy and in WW1 many soldiers had to learn basic literacy before being sent to the front (can't find the reference, dammit)

We do care more now as a society I think.... Overall.

I've come to think that people living stable lives forget, or never realise, the extremes we are capable of, good and bad. War and extreme stress bring them out, specially in people who live in places where there is no hope. But I think we are improving.

*In 2016, Gazzaniga published her research on more than 2,000 ancient Roman skeletons, all working-class people who were buried in common graves. The average age of death was 30, and that wasn’t a mere statistical quirk: a high number of the skeletons were around that age. Many showed the effects of trauma from hard labour, as well as diseases we would associate with later ages, like arthritis.

@MissConductUS That's an interesting (and encouraging) report. Wide thinking in examining data from much broader sources than normal.

@Ijsbear, I thought so too. The Russians are being very selective about what data they release, and I wouldn't trust the bits they do let out.

@notimagain , here's a good piece on the UAF are targeting Russian air defense units and what aviation support the USAF is providing.

Ukraine is Hitting Russian SAMs With HIMARS; US Considers Future Aviation Contribution

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted ground assaults around Bakhmut and the environs of Donetsk City as well as southwest of Izyum. One assault east of Bakhmut made limited gains.

Russian forces did not conduct ground assaults near Siversk again, suggesting that they are deprioritizing operations in that area.

Satellite imagery showed Russian reinforcements concentrated near the Ukrainian border on the ground line of communication (GLOC) leading toward Izyum.

Ukrainian forces disrupted a Russian ground assault in Kherson Oblast with preemptive artillery strikes.

Ukrainian officials claim that damage to the railway bridge across the Dnipro near Kherson renders Russian forces unable to resupply their positions on the west bank of the river by rail.

--

Neither Russia nor Ukraine produced new evidence regarding the cause or responsibility for the deaths of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) at the Olenivka prison in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Russian officials raised the death toll of the event to 50 and released a list of deceased POWs.[2] Ukrainian officials stated that they are unable to verify the list at this time and called for an international investigation.[3] Maxar has provided post-strike imagery of the damage. ISW is unable to confirm the nature or cause of the incident, although it remains more likely that Russian forces were responsible.

[I do appreciate the ISW's measured approach and wording]

+++

⚡️Mayor: Mykolaiv is under massive shelling.

⚡️Governor: Guerrillas damage railway in Luhansk Oblast
Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Luhansk partisans damaged the railway near the city of Svatove, which reportedly was used to supply Russian troops with ammunition.

⚡️Ukraine's Air Force destroys Russian front line equipment.
The Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that it had destroyed two ammunition depots, an Orlan-10 UAV, two strongholds, up to twenty units of armored combat vehicles, and dozens of Russian troops on July 30.

⚡️Russia says it will allow UN and Red Cross to see prison where Ukrainian POWs died.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it will allow UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) experts at the site of the death of Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk Oblast Olenivka. Previously the Ukrainian government called on the UN and ICRC to investigate the attack.

⚡️CNN: Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to finance war in Ukraine.
CNN’s investigation has discovered that Russia has been smuggling gold out of Sudan to support dictator Vladimir Putin’s war effort in Ukraine. Roughly one ton of gold was found on a Russian cargo plane in February claiming to be exporting cookies. According to CNN, over the past year and a half, Russia operated at least 16 flights with smuggled gold from Sudan.

⚡️Lebanon detains ship with stolen Ukrainian grain.

The Kyiv Independent, [31/07/2022 09:19]
⚡️ Russia reports drone attack on Russian Navy's headquarters in Sevastopol.
The Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol Mykhailo Razvozhaev claimed that a Ukrainian UAV attacked the local headquarters of the Russian fleet on July 31, injuring 5 people.

⚡️ Shelling kills agricultural tycoon Vadatursky, his wife.
Oleksiy Vadatursky, 74, and his wife Risa Vadaturska were killed when Russian shelling hit their house in Mykolaiv in the early hours of July 31, said Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv Oblast.
Vadatursky owned Nibulon, a large agricultural conglomerate. His net worth was estimated at over $400 million in 2021.

📸 The Russian army shelled the university in Kharkiv, July 29, 2022 [russians, destroyer of learning and medicine. The govt wants everyone in the stone age]

🗣Ukraine has started mandatory evacuation of Donetsk region's residents, reports Vice-Minister Iryna Vereschuk
"There is absolutely no gas supply in Donetsk region. All repairable gas ducts have been repaired, but the enemy keeps destroying anything that could help people to get warm in winter."

Note the UK Int update: Lukashenko is almost entirely dominated by Russia now. He used to dance a slippery line, but he's failed.

Also note, a confirmed Ru plane destroyed. 223 planes is an awful lot to lose.

⚡️CNN: Russia is preparing over 30 thousand volunteers to be sent to the war against Ukraine
Volunteer battalions, planned to be sent to the war against Ukraine, are being formed throughout Russia. [the general Western view is that these are very poorly trained and equipped troops]

⚡️The General Staff: the Armed Forces of Ukraine have repelled the Russian offensives on three directions, the Russian Federation army is partly successful on the Bakhmut direction

⚡️ The Ministry of Health of Ukraine reports that it has received $5 million from the Ministry of Health of Qatar

⚡️ Vatican News: Pope Francis said that he wants to reduce traveling due to health issues, but is still planning to visit Ukraine

⚡️RFM24: Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that leadership of the Russian Federation is trying to bring back the "empire of evil"

⚡️ Lithuania is preparing a new package of military assistance for Ukraine, according to the Lithuanian Minister of Defense Arvydas Anušauskas

⚡️ Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi does not plan to visit Taiwan during her Asian tour — official statement

Recall that China threatens to launch a military strike on Taiwan if Nancy Pelosi visits it.

@Ijsbear Thanks for the Key Takeaways.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine produced new evidence regarding the cause or responsibility for the deaths of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) at the Olenivka prison in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Russian officials raised the death toll of the event to 50 and released a list of deceased POWs.[2] Ukrainian officials stated that they are unable to verify the list at this time and called for an international investigation.[3] Maxar has provided post-strike imagery of the damage. ISW is unable to confirm the nature or cause of the incident, although it remains more likely that Russian forces were responsible.
[I do appreciate the ISW's measured approach and wording]

⚡️Russia says it will allow UN and Red Cross to see prison where Ukrainian POWs died.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said it will allow UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) experts at the site of the death of Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk Oblast Olenivka. Previously the Ukrainian government called on the UN and ICRC to investigate the attack.

If Russia allows the UN and Red Cross to inspect, I presume Russia would either clear the site of evidence or plant evidence. If it is a missile strike by 'Ukraine', or any missile strike, I would have thought that you would have satellite evidence of that and which direction is has come from? If it is a bomb planted in the barracks, then there would not be evidence of a missile strike, just explosions. I don't know, just hoping for answers. It is simply heartbreaking for the Azov POWs. They did not think they would go home alive from Mariupol and now this has happened.

⚡️ Russia reports drone attack on Russian Navy's headquarters in Sevastopol.
The Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol Mykhailo Razvozhaev claimed that a Ukrainian UAV attacked the local headquarters of the Russian fleet on July 31, injuring 5 people.

Isn't Sevastopol deep in Crimea? I wonder whether this is just porkies as usual from Russia or a 'false flag'. If Ukraine did try to strike Crimea, I wonder whether they would claim responsibility for it, considering how sensitive Russia is about Crimea.

probably porkies; a drone getting that far is a bit unlikely (its a long way from non-occupied territory)

smacks of finding an excuse not to hold the parade to me.

Im damn certain the Russians woudl interfere with the bombed barracks. Latest twitter thinking is that it was a bomb detonated from inside, possibly thermobaric.

The rumour is that the POWs within were deliberately moved there with a clear implication that it was planned to kill them. APparently by Wagner not Russia, which I don't believe. Plausible deniability since Wagner is officially independent

So does anyone know if there are any Azovstal defenders left and where they are? I know about 30 were released as part of a deal a few weeks ago but there were many that left the steelworks. I can't face Twitter at the moment. I don't even want to read about the atrocities let alone see pictures, it will set my being on fire.

Putin has put himself in a bad spot politically. His power rests largely on the myth of the invincibility of the Russian army with him at the top. That's a myth that has been increasingly hard to maintain. I thought this essay did a good job of analyzing the ins and outs of this.

snyder.substack.com/p/putins-rule-is-weakening?s=r&utm_medium=web

probably porkies; a drone getting that far is a bit unlikely (its a long way from non-occupied territory)
smacks of finding an excuse not to hold the parade to me.

Unsurprising, it's porkies. Good point about Russia using it as an excuse not to hold the parade. Ukraine has denied responsibility.

From WSJ: "In Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine and annexed in 2014, an attack by a small drone on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet injured six officers and caused minor damage, according to Russian state news agency Tass. The local governor, Mikhail Razvozhaev, accused Ukraine of carrying out the attack and urged city residents to stay home. Celebrations of Russia’s Navy Day on Sunday were canceled in Sevastopol. The kind of drone used in the attack could only have been flown from the immediate vicinity of the city, which is located some 150 miles from the nearest Ukrainian-held territory.

While Ukraine has repeatedly used drones since the Feb. 24 Russian invasion to target military and logistics infrastructure facilities in Russia, Ukrainian officials Sunday denied involvement in the Sevastopol attack. Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the Odessa military administration, said that the strike in Sevastopol was a Russian provocation. “The liberation of our Crimea from the occupiers won’t happen this way and will be much more efficient,” he said. “Everything in its proper time.”

I suppose they don't really have many soldiers or military equipment in good condition to show off, now.

Thanks for the link..the mention of pilot training, or lack thereof, was interesting.