Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

@RedToothBrush
And I am definitely less interested in that than the cost of fertiliser. I don't know whether DH is right about this, but he was telling me last night that the cost of fertiliser was something like £200 per ton last year. This year its £400 and the farmers union were telling members not to use it this year. They are now getting the provisional costs for next year through. £600. I don't even want to think about what that is going to do to food prices.
I had a chat with a local farmer a few weeks ago. He said fertiliser was £250/tonne, and is now £600/tonne 'if you can get it'. They have reduced their acreage under potatoes this year as they can't get enough fertiliser for their usual crop. The cost of fuel has doubled, he said (red diesel has a lower rate of tax, so any increase in the cost of the actual fuel has a massive impact on the price paid by the farmer). He's semi retired, and is I think glad that it's his son's problem, not his.

I suspect the wholesalers and processors could take a smaller cut. The farm gate price for spuds is £120/tonne (12p/kg) so you can do your own profit calc on that one, given what you'll pay in a supermarket.

Input costs increased last autumn, before the Ukraine kicked off, so will have an impact on prices when this year's harvest comes in. Then you will have the issue of increased scarcity due to the Ukraine (unable to export grain, productivity down due to the war).

@ScrollingLeaves that was a sobering read. There are a couple of us on this thread supporting a military and civilian kitchen in Kharkiv. We are due to send some military kit in June and the troops are apparently as excited as children about the delivery of things like boots and ballistic goggles. I can't spend too much time dwelling on it because it's depressing.

It's very worrying. The longer the war drags on the worse it will be, and then of course there will be the need of rebuilding Ukraine, which will not be helpful for keeping prices down.

The war is also making the climate change issues worse.

I have to say I'm very worried about the future.

💪 The United States can supply highly mobile artillery missile systems "HIMARS" to Ukraine. One of the modules is capable of directing a missile at a distance of up to 300 km, i.e. even to the Crimea.

"This provoked a hysterical reaction in the Kremlin, and even Kremlin propagandists were overwhelmed with rage when they said that such weapons would soon arrive", - said military expert Serhiy Hrabsky.

Poor little propegandists.

Yes they might well be able to supply x y or z but atm, Ukraine isn't getting what it needs, despite the promises and the rhetoric.... the delays in getting Ukraine what it needs plus the Russian response to US missile systems being supplied to Ukraine, being a Red Line, does not fill me with hope.

Russian air power in the east seems to be able to operate with impunity and so does its artillery and missile systems.

..and thanks to zero action on the Black Sea, Mykolaiv may well suffer the same fate as Mariupol.

Is there a donation page for this initiative? Or some hint to go looking for it on Google...

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 15:45
@ScrollingLeaves that was a sobering read. There are a couple of us on this thread supporting a military and civilian kitchen in Kharkiv. We are due to send some military kit in June and the troops are apparently as excited as children about the delivery of things like boots and ballistic goggles. I can't spend too much time dwelling on it because it's depressing.

It’s good of you to support that kitchen, and that you are getting military kit. You’d think the West could at least supply a great deal of that sort of thing. It was worrying to read that group didn’t have a radio, a vehicle for evacuating the wounded and that they had little water to deal with those showers of burning phosphorous(?).

I have been to the Ukrainian Cultural Centre in Manchester today.

Spoke to a bloke who has been doing a lot of the leg work.

He is concerned because the centre works around the school year so is starting to wind down for the summer.

The council have really been leaning in on
the centre for information and support. The police started to ring him to find out if they were protesting that week but have now stopped because they know it will be every week - the protest is now also an opportunity to meet. Lots of ukrainians are finding themselves scattered on the outskirts of the city and surrounding towns, and don't necessarily know anyone else and are finding it hard to meet others in a similar situation.

He said the centre will be a ghost town in a couple of weeks and hes desparately trying to get people to network in the meantime. Over the summer the churches will be the only thing running. He is telling people to turn up early to services and to start to make friends where you can. Both Ukrainians with other Ukrainians and hosts with other hosts. Everyone needs support. The centre has been the one picking up the pieces of broken down sponsorships. He is really worried about what is going to happen over the next month or so when they are closed for the summer. I have to say I think things could start to get really tough when the 6 months are up and some hosts want their guests to leave.

Lots of Ukrainians are just arriving and demand for support is going up. At the same time interest in supporting the cause is starting to drop off here just as thats happening. He said the stuff the centre currently need donated for ukrainians here in the UK for is more toiletries (inc feminine hygiene) and size 4 and 5 nappies. They are also desperately needing old bikes (specifically adult bikes as many are finding public transport useless for getting to work because they are out in the sticks around Manchester where the bigger houses are). The centre itself is also trying to send over equipment for soliders to save lives, but this cant be classified as humanitarian aid for obvious reasons. His point is this is for the husbands, sons and fathers of the families he is trying to support. They don't really need clothes etc anymore either for Ukrainians here or to send. If you want to help, they are easy to look up...

I have to say I really felt for the bloke as they are clearly shouldering a huge amount of responsibility. He's trying to coordinate between areas and fill in gaps where there is no formal organisation and he is on a race against the clock coming into summer.

He said that before the war the centre had 100 kids at its Saturday school. They are already up to 190. And thats those who are close enough to attend. And for all of them, there is the mothers. (Noting here that families sponsoring dont get the £350 and many are struggling). Then you have all the people coming in from the surrounding areas where there isn't anything else.

I know there are pockets of new support centres popping up but its very patchy. My borough apparently has two hot spots for where Ukrainians are landing (im in one). This is probably better than them being more spread out. However the problem is going to arise later about where to live after their hosting arrangements hit 6 months. I think many will end up staying longer. Others will have issues and be forced to spread out if they can find somewhere.

Of all the hosts I've spoken to, the majority are very positive and think its going really well. All seem to be reporting the same cultural habits that annoy / amuse (the need to work, cleaning and running the tap to wash up!). I think I have 7 or 8 friends we know reasonably well close by who are hosting or are in the process of doing visas. If I ask around it will probably be more and there's lots of friends of friends doing it (its definitely a particular type of person doing it - more correctly able to do it).

So yeah the keyword is the need to network. Its a disorganised mess all over Facebook but it exists. Its just making sense of it and being willing to (able to) meet strangers.

Oh and hosts dont seem to have got their £350 anywhere near promptly...

running the tap to wash up!
I do this! One less stress point when/if we get any guests.

But in all seriousness, is there any way to support centres like this to help Ukrainians and their hosts over the summer?

I think its spreading the word more than anything. Most stuff seems to be on fb. And getting stuff to central hubs in the next month. And then keeping up the attention that people here will need continued support over the summer at the very least.

Beyond that i dont know. One family ive spoken to today said their guests were hoping to go home in August.

To Kharkiv... Might be a bit optimistic.

EdithStourton I'm hearing similar from Zimbabwe, except the fuel price there has trebled.

Iullia Mendal AT iuliiamendal
We drove from Lviv to Kyiv and barely got home. There is no fuel for civilians at all in the country. I hope there is for military needs.

@RedToothBrush 18:34

Thank you for your report about the Ukrainian Cultural Centre in Manchester. It sounds as though there is a worrying and overwhelming amount to try to organise. One thing though is that maybe people who cannot host would help with other help if they knew what was needed. For example some people may have a spare bike they are never using anymore in their garage but would never have thought of this being wanted.

Maybe if there were a list of these centres with contact numbers for every main city, and a list of most wanted items to go with each, could we put it out on Mumsnet, and keep doing that through the summer?

Churches are a good place to meet people even if they are not Ukrainian Orthodox and some run weekly coffee mornings that never ask what religion, or none, someone is affiliated with.

Anyway, because of what you’ve written I’ll try to find out more where I live.

Erm @Sd352 wrong thread?

Yes, I have reported it.

Thanks @RedToothBrush, it shows how much the Ukranian Cultural Centre is having to do. Services in the UK have declined over the last decade in general, which isn't going to help. I'm specifically thinking of things like Sure Start centres, which could have helped support families and were good for helping their attendees gain further support (language barrier could have been an issue). @ScrollingLeaves that's a good idea for sharing the centre information for cities and towns regularly over the summer. I'm not able to host but I'm not sure where to start to help locally, I'm going to try and find out.

It's worrying about the food supply issue, especially globally. The government needs to put some forward planning into this for the UK, and the energy supply issues for next winter. It could be a big crisis and needs an appropriate response, they need to draw on type of response during the 1940s where we upped our domestic food production. Even growing on a local level, it would help.

The Association of Ukrainians is a good place to start for links for people across the country.

https://www.augb.co.uk/

These are where the definite centres for Ukrainians are. These places will be getting absolutely hammered and they need help and will continue to need help when people start to lose interest.

I would not contact them directly via details on their sites (i think many have asked people dont).

Instead see if you can use as a guide to find relevant groups on Facebook. Many are saying what they need there instead.

I was volunteering in Kensington last week for a refugee clothes bank for mostly Afghans and now Ukrainians. The donated stock left is pitiful. A very young woman needed clothes for work and all that was left was unsuitable. It's surprising given such a wealthy area that there is so much apathy.

@eglantine7 · Today 21:28
I was volunteering in Kensington last week for a refugee clothes bank for mostly Afghans and now Ukrainians. The donated stock left is pitiful. A very young woman needed clothes for work and all that was left was unsuitable. It's surprising given such a wealthy area that there is so much apathy.

You would think there would be plenty of clothes in Kensington. That is surprising.

Do you think an “AIBU to think people in Kensington could donate reasonable quality clothes for Ukrainian women to seek work” might be effective?

@ScrollingLeaves I've put some messages out on Facebook groups. People were initially generous when Afghan refugees arrived in August but there seems to be less drive to donate now and I don't really know why. Kensington and Westminster are largely where refugees in temporary accommodation are. But clothes and toiletries are totally reliant on donations.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued attempts to take full control of Severodonetsk.

Russian forces continued offensives southeast of Izyum but did not make any confirmed advances toward Slovyansk.

Russian forces continued offensive operations to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) northeast of Bakhmut and appear unlikely to attempt to directly assault the city.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northwestern Kherson Oblast has forced Russian troops to take up defensive positions and will likely disrupt Russian efforts to effectively dig in and consolidate control of occupied areas along the Southern Axis.

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The Kyiv Independent, [30/05/2022 01:09]
⚡️ Ukraine's military destroys Russian ammunition depot in eastern Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent, [30/05/2022 06:52]
⚡️AFP: NATO has right to deploy in eastern Europe.
NATO is no longer pressed by past commitments that prevented the bloc from deploying its forces in eastern Europe, NATO’s deputy secretary-general Mircea Geoana told AFP on May 29. According to the official, Russia has “voided of any content” the NATO-Russia Founding Act, by attacking Ukraine and halting dialogue with the alliance. The Act specified that both sides agreed to work to prevent any build-up of conventional forces in agreed regions of Europe, to include Central and Eastern Europe.

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Awful pictures of endless mass graves outside Mariupol

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UkraineNOW Telegram channel

❗️Russian troops are setting up tank positions in Kherson region. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their offensive!

In the area of Nova Kakhovka and Stepanivka, Kherson region, Russian troops are setting up tank positions. In a few days, they have accumulated about 120 T-62s and BMP-2s. At the same time, units of the Armed Forces continue their offensive and do not allow the enemy to move reserves. With the help of aircraft, the Ukrainian military destroyed:

6 T-62 tanks,
2 multiple rocket launchers «Grad»,
3 self-propelled howitzers "Msta-S»,
3 units of armored vehicles and 13 units of vehicles,
67 Russian military personnel.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine also destroyed an unmanned reconnaissance control post and a command post of one of the Russian units.

🤝 Poland is ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine's security - Andrzej Duda in an interview with CNN.

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Not much more info yet

Ooh the other thing the bloke said they were looking for was cooking pans and utensils.