Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

Arestovych in his daily update yesterday was saying that there were signs of Russian forces running out of steam in Izyum/Severodonetsk axis. So if that was UA plan that RTB posted above, ut seems that's it's working! And he said this is with Russia having a big advantage in both men and equipment (because they threw everything and the kitchen sink at this area) at the moment.

He also said they saw Russia use T55 tanks. They were made in... yes, you guessed it right, 1955.

He talked about the counteroffensive in Kherson, pointing out that UA don't really have good heavy weaponry yet (although aid is coming in dribs and drabs), but they are still able to that. So imagine how yhe game is going to change once they get all they've asked for.

He also said they saw Russia use T55 tanks. They were made in... yes, you guessed it right, 1955.

…..But then produced for many years and being upgraded well into the 21st century.

That said yep they are old and I’m not sure I’d fancy running around in one with the likes of NLAW around but they might be still useful in certain roles.

Well The Russian Ambassador has apparently stated nuclear weapons would not be used in the present situation. Bit worrying considering Russia were definitely not going to invade Ukraine

Just a Sunday AM musing.

It's been noted elsewhere in more technical military forums that been a lot made recently by various sources/outlets in the west of the relative age/efficiency of Russian "kit", and that's perhaps feeding into a view that their equipment basically won't work/can't work/they'll be overwhelmed when the Ukrainians get the brand new shiny American stuff/Russians are on their last legs.

Those are really really dangerous assumptions and claims to to make.

I if an owner/operator knows their equipment has limitations or potentially isn't 100% reliable those problems can be mitigated, at least to some extent, by the use of suitable tactics and methods..

So, just IMHO , older "kit" can still have devastating capability on opponents if used correctly, so it's worth being mindful of the possible spin in some announcements coming from both sides of the conflict.

Any of the ex-mil here have a view on this?

He also said they saw Russia use T55 tanks. They were made in... yes, you guessed it right, 1955.

The Ukrainians are still using M1910 machine guns designed and first manufactured in 1910. Older equipment is still pretty effective at killing people, and is often more robust and easier to maintain when an army has limited facilities for maintenance. The deployment of T55 tanks is probably a practical (and reasonably sensible) response by Russia to the conditions of fighting; the Russians have huge numbers of these in storage, and being able to deploy any armoured vehicles in the field keeps the pressure up on the Ukrainians.

He also said they saw Russia use T55 tanks. They were made in... yes, you guessed it right, 1955.

Your point being ? The UK is returning to Imperial measurements. Not quite sure the Ukrainians will have much use for a 6 7⁄64 " howitzer though. Maybe they can pay in Lsd ?

The UK will be the only nuclear power to measure range in leagues. Still our space missions will be fun.

I doubt very much we will really return to imperial. Nice distraction from all the crimes and corruption currently circulating around BJ though!

@notimagain I think pretty much the whole world (except Russia itself, of course) agrees that Russian "special military operation" has been a pretty big failure so far. Surely, they have made some gains but they are quite significantly smaller than what they were aiming for.

Ukraine, on contrary, has been far more successful in defending their country than anyone thought they would be. So I don't think it's such an inconceivable assumption, made by many experts, that they can perform even better with newer and better equipment. Otherwise, why are we supplying it all if we don't think it will help?

My friends in their mid 50s did not learn imperial measurements at school. Its utter nonsense.

I've had a conversation this week trying to talk to non uk citizens about our height and weight and why we still use feet and inches rather than cms, yet never use it for anything else! Its impossible to explain the logic nor why we persist with it.

And I am definitely less interested in that than the cost of fertiliser. I don't know whether DH is right about this, but he was telling me last night that the cost of fertiliser was something like £200 per ton last year. This year its £400 and the farmers union were telling members not to use it this year. They are now getting the provisional costs for next year through. £600. I don't even want to think about what that is going to do to food prices.

When someone asked yesterday about where i said rationing was starting, it was a question that falls closer to the bone than you might consider. Indeed the joke yesterday with bringing back imperial on twitter was when is rationing returning to the uk.

Genuinely, I think it would be rash to scoff at the idea of some sort of rationing happening in the UK if this continues. Sort of a guaranteed price for your first x amount of x product. Then you pay full whack for everything else after that. Simply cos the food banks are already saying that donations have gone down as demand has gone up and they are now struggling to meet demand. (Black market will be fun...)

At the sharp end of this will be many Ukrainians fleeing the war. Not just in this country but elsewhere in Europe and still in Ukraine.

And it doesn't bear thinking about what the same effect will be in north Africa and the Middle East.

What has frustrated me was this was clear in February but its only now that the penny is really starting to drop with western leaders about the implications.

It is truly the stuff of nightmares.

I fear price rises really have even begun to start on food...

And of course you can still inflict serious damage with older equipment, and use it tactically too. Something is better than nothing. However, the trend of Russia bringing older and older equipment into battlefield suggests that they are running low.

From UkraineNOW telegram:

⚡️Operational summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the morning of May 29:

▪️In Volyn and Polissia, Belarus has increased the number of operational and combat training measures, the General Staff reports.

▪️In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian invaders are trying to prevent the advance of the Ukrainian military to the border.

▪️In the Donetsk region, the enemy wants to gain a foothold in the area of the city of Lyman. Fighting also continues in Sieverodonetsk in the Luhansk region, at the same time, the Ukrainian military was able to push the invaders away from the town of Bobrove.

▪️The enemy has problems with equipment, therefore, to "strengthen" his troops, he takes out outdated T-62 and BMP-1 tanks.

📑The European Commission sent the EU countries a new draft oil embargo against Russia – Bloomberg

🔺The German government has reduced "to a minimum" the supply of weapons to Ukraine over the past 9 weeks, the Welt am Sonntag newspaper writes, citing documents at its disposal.

🎥The film about Mariupol "Mariupolis 2" was awarded a special prize in Cannes. The director of the film, Lithuanian documentary filmmaker was killed by Russian occupiers in Mariupol in April. The film was completed by his fiancée. 🎥The film about Mariupol "Mariupolis 2" was awarded a special prize in Cannes. The director of the film, Lithuanian documentary filmmaker was killed by Russian occupiers in Mariupol in April. The film was completed by his fiancée.

‼️Russian media reported that “in Ukraine, American biotechnologists and pharmacists were actively restoring the smallpox strain. At the same time, American instructors taught Ukrainian specialists how to respond quickly to smallpox outbreaks.” [I think we better watch out for the Russians donig this]

🔺Crimean hospitals no longer accept civilians. In occupied Crimea, they stop accepting civilians in hospitals in order to make room for wounded Russian soldiers.

⚠️The invaders are already "preparing" for the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon receive HIMARS and M270

According to Defense Express, the command of the 27th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District of Russia, participating in the war against Ukraine, has decided to withdraw its command post from the artillery coverage area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

⚡️British Intelligence Update

▪️Russia's desire to ease international sanctions highlights the stress the sanctions are putting on the Putin regime, according to British intelligence.

▪️On May 25, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said that Russia was ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for ships carrying food through the Black Sea in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

▪️The Minister also asked Ukraine to clear the area around the Odesa port for the passage of ships.

▪️Russia has demonstrated that it is ready to use global food security for its own political purposes, and then position itself as an allegedly reasonable player and blame the West for all failures.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [29/05/2022 01:03]
⚡️ Japan to provide $1.7 million to transport humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
[Japan has been providing a great deal of assistance]

⚡️ CNN: Ukrainian forces in ‘tough defensive position’ in Sievierodonetsk.

The head of the Sievierodonetsk civil military administration, Oleksandr Striuk, told CNN that the most intense fighting is concentrated in the outskirts of the city. Striuk said Sievierodonetsk is under constant fire, humanitarian headquarters are “practically immobilized” due to fighting, and electricity and mobile networks are cut off.

According to him, it is still possible to bring aid to the city.

⚡️ Reuters: Leader of Russian proxies in Kherson Oblast says decision to join Russia will happen ‘towards next year.’

The Kyiv Independent, [29/05/2022 09:04]
⚡️Welt: Germany has hardly delivered any weapons to Ukraine for past nine weeks despite promises. The German newspaper reported, citing a source, that the federal government has not met the requests for lighter weapons either.

Ukraine has only received two weapon shipments from Germany since March, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far refused to supply German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, citing agreements with NATO allies.

All the talk of rising prices reminds me that I need to order another 2x10kg bags of bread flour. I have about 4kg left from my last order (I make 2x500g sourdough loaves at a time).

I wonder whether/how much the price will have gone up

At the sharp end of this will be many Ukrainians fleeing the war. Not just in this country but elsewhere in Europe and still in Ukraine.
And it doesn't bear thinking about what the same effect will be in north Africa and the Middle East.
What has frustrated me was this was clear in February but its only now that the penny is really starting to drop with western leaders about the implications.

The effect will be severe here as well, a famine in the Middle East and North Africa will destabilise the region and will lead to a return of terror, possible a resurrection of Isis/A Qaeda or similar and a wave of immigration to Europe, alongside with our own problems with food and energy supply.

I think it's not quite fair to say that the penny is just dropping with the Western governments now, but they are seriously restricted in what they can achieve. The focus is on helping Ukraine in their fight with Russia, the only way to finish this quickly would be to encourage Ukraine to give and and I don't think this the way to go.

It's a price we all pay for globalisation and sourcing essentials from all over the globe.

if it was true about the EU debating sending EU warships in to escort Ukranian grain ships, well, that'll be why.

Bloody Putin and his hawks, for his own bloody ego he's distorting and damaging the whole bloody world.

I wonder what China are thinking and planning at this point.

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Electricity out today across Donbas: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Konstantinivka and elsewhere. There have been rumours that it could last for some time, as well as water shutoffs.

Ukrainian controlled areas...

Btw there is a photograph of a supermarket in Mariupol with about a dozen dead bodies rotting in it that just started to do the rounds. The point of the photo is the Russians haven't got around to clearing all the bodies even now.

I suspect its about to go viral. I get the point of the photo, but I don't think it needs to be shared everywhere. And to warn those of you on twitter not to look at it if it comes up on your feed (it didn't carry a warning yet when it came up on mine)

Ive noticed more shrinkflation on large bags of flour.

We bulk buy it and suspect we will bulk buy more going forward for various reasons, but even that is going to only offset costs a little.

Food supply fragility is a massive problem. Every country I can think of with a young or growing population also happens to be on the front lines of the climate crisis with heatwaves, water scarcity and other problems. From a purely selfish viewpoint, it will be cheaper to sort out climate support payments to those places now rather than deal with the refugee/war crisis that will follow.

@OwlsDance

So I don't think it's such an inconceivable assumption, made by many experts, that they can perform even better with newer and better equipment. Otherwise, why are we supplying it all if we don't think it will help?

That's not the point I'm making, and IMHO those experts are probably correct - The Ukrainians should indeed do better with newer kit, all other things being equal.

OTOH what we should not assume is that the Russian military, using older equipment or equipment supposedly statistically less reliable than the western equivalent, are going to be incapable of making it very difficult for the Ukranians to "win" this conflict ( which then lead to define "win").

@RedToothBrush And I am definitely less interested in that than the cost of fertiliser. I don't know whether DH is right about this, but he was telling me last night that the cost of fertiliser was something like £200 per ton last year. This year its £400 and the farmers union were telling members not to use it this year. They are now getting the provisional costs for next year through. £600. I don't even want to think about what that is going to do to food prices.

There is a correlation between wheat prices and the costs of fertiliser and sprays, though there is often a time lag. The manufacturers see where the market is going (based on market prices, yields, quality) and will then raise prices to take some of the profit out of the market, then peg/reduce them again when wheat prices are not so strong. A politician last week was calling for a similar market pricing approach by the gas and energy companies to smooth out the effects for consumers which has some merit.

I do share your views about food prices though. Structurally we will see some price uplifts for at least the next two years. Rationing is possible and extremely sensible. The key is to not waste.

Over the weekend I read a BBC report about the call between Scholz, Macron and Putin. That report stated Russia was willing to cooperate on fertiliser supplies in exchange for the sanctions imposed on it being removed. The report read as though the Russians hadn't made removal of sanctions a condition of allowing Ukraine to export grain, but obviously it would take negotiations.

I found an old Lidl receipt and compared it with one from last week; I only bought a few of the same things, unfortunately, but

On 9th February 2022 the price of 4 pints of milk was £1.15; last week it was £1.29. In February, 667g (10) pork sausages cost me £2.49; last week the same product cost £2.99. One litre of plain yoghurt was £1.09, £1.15 last week. 250g butter was £1.45, last week £1.69.

Other things (own brand biscuits, for instance) still cost the same.

@RedToothBrush 08:43

Thank you very much for your long detailed post this morning, especially as you mentioned you have a lot going on.

I have found the Washington Post article you mentioned in your paragraph below and thought it worth reading. As much as it is sad and worrying it is also a testament to the extraordinary bravery and resilience of ordinary Ukrainian men who have no military training or experience finding themselves in an impossible situation. I actually admire the leader who decided to take his men off for a quick rest in a hotel and for what it is worth believe he intended to return. I hope they are not treated as deserters. It is dreadful to think of how little equipment they have and the odds against them.
RTB wrote:
“Counter to that is claims by the Chechens they have taken control of Severodonetsk (no evidence of that at this stage) and reports of Ukrainian desertations in Severodonetsk. (There was an article in the Washington Post with a couple of deserters who were fully aware they risked court martial for doing so. They said they couldn't take anymore after 50% losses in their unit. If I can find it again, I'll post). These desertation reports do seem to have credibility. The feeling was they felt they had been abandoned / forgotten by their government and were not getting enough support and without proper air support it was near suicidal. This says that Ukrainian morale in some areas is running into genuine problems.

So definitely a mixed picture and one hard to manage in terms of crucial PR”

Ukrainian volunteers in the east feel abandoned as Russia advances - The Washington Post

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

Zelensky young and now. He's gone through a hell of his own.

Prices have gone up a lot here in Finland, ranging from 10% increase to nearly 50% increase! And that's considering the fact we produce most of our food in the country (the imported stuff like coffee has the highest increases in price) but last harvest was poor which does impact it as well.
I have coeliac disease so the raised wheat prices shouldn't really affect me but they inflate the prices of GF stuff as well just because everything else is being inflated :(