Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

@Ijsbear NATO is no longer pressed by past commitments that prevented the bloc from deploying its forces in eastern Europe, NATO’s deputy secretary-general Mircea Geoana told AFP on May 29. According to the official, Russia has “voided of any content” the NATO-Russia Founding Act, by attacking Ukraine and halting dialogue with the alliance. The Act specified that both sides agreed to work to prevent any build-up of conventional forces in agreed regions of Europe, to include Central and Eastern Europe.

Is this the first time this has been announced? Strikes me as an upping of the ante if so, though words and actions are two different things.

The Kyiv Independent, [30/05/2022 09:30]
⚡️ Russian forces regroup, prepare for attack on Sloviansk from Izium and Lyman.

The Russian troops moved more than 250 pieces of weapons and military equipment to occupied settlements, as well as restored the railway bridge near Kupiansk.

Source: General Staff of Ukraine.

---

Over 30k troops now according to the Ukrainians.

The UK defense agency and ISW keep making the point that the Russians are advancing and taking towns, some of them strategic, but that given the overwhelming military and personnel advantage they are making far less progress than you'd expect.

It's difficult not to be discouraged sometimes (at least I find it difficult) but actually the trained people think that Russians are still performing very, very poorly.

Haven't heard that announced before or at least stated as explicitly before.

As you say it's a very definite upping of at least the verbal ante.

As an aside should I still be finding it funny that some Russians are expressing so much offence at the idea that the Ukrainians might get their hands on a rocket system that could hit targets on Russian sovereign territory.

Guess they didn't ever expect this special operation to end up with them potentially being on a two way range...😉

@eglantine7 7 · Today 00:17
@ScrollingLeaves I've put some messages out on Facebook groups. People were initially generous when Afghan refugees arrived in August but there seems to be less drive to donate now and I don't really know why. Kensington and Westminster are largely where refugees in temporary accommodation are. But clothes and toiletries are totally reliant on donations.

It is unfortunate that it is so easy to stop thinking about the refugees and just start to return to routine everyday thinking. Your post and RedToothBrush’s posts yesterday are a reminder to really bother locally and try to spread the word too.

I can only speak for my local area but I do think a lot of the apathy that’s apparent here is because people are genuinely struggling to feed and clothe their own families and to pay their energy bills. Foodbank use is up massively here. The sad truth is that many people just don’t have capacity to worry about other people at the moment.

Sorry had cross posted. As far as I know it's the only time it's been said and so far I haven't seen it repeated but I haven't had time to trawl the papers and twittersphere yet

As an aside should I still be finding it funny that some Russians are expressing so much offence at the idea that the Ukrainians might get their hands on a rocket system that could hit targets on Russian sovereign territory.

Yeah, what a shock to their systems eh?

My sympathy is oh-so-limited!

Rather more grimly, this was predictable but it's actually happening now, if this is true. From UkraineNOW:

‼️The Russian military command is holding hostage the families of Russian servicemen who are fighting in Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian Western Military District has banned the families of officers from leaving the country. If the Russian military refuse to perform combat missions, their wives and children are threatened to resettle to depressed regions of the Russian Far East.

@Igotjelly sadly I think you are spot on about people not having the capacity for others atm. I get it. I have made contact with the support centre in my city. They have a huge space in a popular shopping centre and both times I've been in they are busy. I have asked what support they need and they reply no what support do you need 🙈😂. Anyway they have communicated with my group of 5 currently leaving via Russia and have been a huge moral support and pull factor for them in a way I couldn't be. They removed the mystery and the fear of where they are coming to which was huge. I personally have found families for the group but the support centre seemed to think they could find hosts even though they say the numbers willing are dwindling. Our approach is that hosts host, sponsors (my company) are a financial back up and provide an additional allowance for the refugees and act a host for weekend breaks. I think this belt and braces approach will secure better outcomes. The two families will also be living on the same street.

We are in daily contact with the kitchen via a private telegram group and make individual monthly payments according to our means via PayPal. If anyone wants to support the civilian and military kitchen in Kharkiv then feel free to private message @Ijsbear or me. They are the most inspirational and resilient team ❤️

@terrywynne pm me for more info x

If this is true, it corroborates reports of diminishing morale in certain (but not all) regiments in the Russian army. It is one thing to have conscripts, quite another to have senior regulars in the volunteer army threatened in this way.

By my reckoning, the better quality artillery and munitions should be arriving where it needs to be any day soon. I am doubtful the Ukrainian borders will ever go back to pre-2014 positions, but this is going to become an attritional artillery war soon. There will be much destruction, but if the UA can use (and not lose) too much of the new weaponry it should have an affect on Russian morale. The Excalibur rounds are high precision and have a CEP of under 4 metres and specifically designed for close quarter combat. There are 4,000 of these rounds I recall that should be capable of deployment imminently. The Russian air force and Navy in the Black Sea will be looking to locate and destroy these systems, though they can normally fire and then move away within minutes.

Commentary in Telegraph: 'Conflict could prove worse than Cuban muzzle crisis' without action now'

Ps I am not a Torygraph reader normally, this is stolen from Twitter

I am out of my depth now with commenting, although not with caring.

Do you better informed people think there is any hope of Ukraine maintaining/regaining its sea ports and pre Feb 22 borders?

I am under no illusions that this conflict is anything other than a pivotal moment in history and that its impacts will be felt for generations to come. I also believe that careful management is needed to avoid escalation.

However - On the other hand the Conservative party are in dire straights. The Sue Gray report was deeply damaging and the Prime Minister is facing increasing calls for his resignation, including from within his own party. There is a sense that many feel the PM has handled the Ukraine crisis well and I do wonder how much of this is deflection.

Maybe I'm a cynical old cow/fox, but I have sometimes felt quite squeamish at what I perceive to be exactly that: Johnson using Ukraine for his own purposes. I can't see it except for anything but that and I've sort of cringed to see him widely praised. I'm not saying the support isn't good, but I don't trust that his motives are

As ever, Kamil Galeev does interesting threads

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1530895135826927616

Interesting thread on Russia's geopolitical ambitions. What do you think? Strategy-wise, this makes complete sense to me though little discussion of US.

twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1530991795848593410?s=21&t=NuZTNPO5pksZFvYhLJX08g

@eglantine7 it is worth raising awareness, not sure how but if you can do leaflets or something - because I gave some nice clothes a couple of months ago and heard on the grapevine that they had too many clothes - now a couple of months down the line they need more - people might not be aware.

The press we get here (European Union) is often slightly different, and it has reported that Russia had said that the payment systems didn't allow for export because of the sanctions restrictions and that needed to be sorted out, and that there were a number of Ukrainian mines in the port and the sea which were moving around and no one knew where they were and that was a problem too. Also that India had offered to step in to help with grain shortages a few weeks ago.

@whenwillwegetthereholly and @Igotjelly
Thank you and I think you're both right. A mix of unawareness of the need and people really feeling the pinch and struggling with energy bills. I have been shocked at the estimation for ours.
Not everyone in Kensington is super rich - I know because I grew up there, but there are some incredibly wealthy people in that Borough too.
The very generous have been the Al Manaar mosque at North Kensington ( they were also amazing during the Grenfell disaster) and the Mormon church in South Kensington.
I guess it's about reaching out and spreading the word.
I will also reach out to the Polish centre near me, The White Eagle Club in Balham who were overwhelmed at the start of teh invasion.
I really appreciate this thread - the news and comments. I also have nothing much to say and feel out of my depth with the horror of it all.
Do wish we had responded much stronger at the start but then the risk of going nuclear has to be handled with real care.

I don't know, but in relation to negotiations, if Russia left does anyone know how Ukraine is proposing to deal with the history of serious fighting between some ethnic Russians and some ethnic Ukrainians, irrespective of Russian involvement?

Biden has said that the US will not send rocket systems to Ukraine that have the capacity to hit Russia (source - Sky News). Two thoughts:

1. Surely where they can reach depends on where they are used?
2. Clearly a risk/benefit calculation has been done here and the US consider it too risky at this stage.

Sorry just to clarify - in what I read, Russia had said it was open to sending out grain, but that the problems with payment and mines needed urgent attention as to fundamental logistics. Some Ukrainian placed mines are floating onto beaches, the others unknown, and the west are aware that they are a problem, as I understood it.

Sorry, I meant fighting between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians within Ukraine. About a quarter of Ukrainians are ethnic Russian.

The press we get here (European Union) is often slightly different, and it has reported that Russia had said that the payment systems didn't allow for export because of the sanctions restrictions and that needed to be sorted out, and that there were a number of Ukrainian mines in the port and the sea which were moving around and no one knew where they were and that was a problem too. Also that India had offered to step in to help with grain shortages a few weeks ago.

I am EU too =) Read these comments too, just not actually reported them as I try to keep to the bigger things.

The problem is to my mind that Russia has a consistent and very strong tendency to claim the moral high ground and that they are doing everythign right, while actually invading (see the claims that they were only protecting Russian speakers, for just one of the examples; also that there seem to be reliable reports that they are loading Ukrainian grain that they haven't paid for and sending it to Syria).

So I have to say that I don't believe Russia simply on the basis of the disparity between their words and their actions.

I don't know, but in relation to negotiations, if Russia left does anyone know how Ukraine is proposing to deal with the history of serious fighting between some ethnic Russians and some ethnic Ukrainians, irrespective of Russian involvement?

No idea

grim Since a lot of the male ethnic Russians were in the Donetsk and Luhansk region and have been conscripted into the army, with their losses perhaps it won't be a problem.

However according to admittedly-Ukrainian public polls, support for the Russian govt has gone down to 2%; it used to be much higher. In the end, this is yet another thorny, knotty issue that will need to tackles. I can't see the ethnic-Russians giving up their Ukrainian land easily.