The Ukrainian Armed Forces have declared they have just launched a major offensive in the South near Kherson.
The official communication talks about the Russians having major losses and how the quality of their reserves isn't good. It says they are using 50 year old tanks.
Twitter is pointing out this fits with reports that newer equipment was sent to the front in the east whilst old equipment was reportedly sent to the south.
How big this offensive is, isn't very clear at this point. Nor are its intended goals. There isn't a lot about it other than an official announcement that it has started.
Tbh, the Ukrainians could do with some good news this week given reports from the east were on the face of it grim.
I think this thread from yesterday is worth posting (im about 3 days behind everything this week. I have a lot going on in RL atm).
Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
Ukrainian strategy in the Donbas has certainly been the subject of some discussion--primarily because they have taken the decision to fight for what seems like a shrinking pocket which the Russians are clearly trying to encircle.
It would not be surprising if they pulled out of SDonetsk and established a less threatened defensive line to the west around Kramatorsk, for instance, which could be more easily supplied, instead of holding on to S Donetsk which has only two rather vulnerable access roads
However, the Ukrainian strategy seems not only not to withdraw, but to reinforce the whole Donbas area. Was struck by this line in a just published AT IAPonomarenko AT KyivIndependent article. Ukrainian high command even reinforcing the far tip of the pocket.
Seems to be that the Ukrainian command has determined that they can make the Russians fight for the whole pocket, and that the wastage they can inflict on the Russians is worth the risk. Here is the whole story. its worth a read.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/welcome-to-hell-ukrainian-airborne-fighting-russia-in-donbas-woods/
Other evidence that the Ukrainians are reinforcing the pocket in the last two days seem to confirm this. The governor of Donetsk has talked about Ukrainian reinforcements coming to the area.
US DOD spokesperson J Kirby said yesterday that a number of the howitzer systems the US has sent to Ukraine are fighting in the Donbas. And moreover it seems that the Ukrainians want to fight for what they have there. Ukrainians will continue to resist there.
So there are signs in the that the Ukrainians are going to attrit the Russians down by making them fight for the whole pocket--including Severdonetsk. Its also interesting to see the irritation expressed at some who were arguing the pocket was collapsing.
This would be consistent with their strategy in the beginning, to hold onto cities and force the RUssians to try and fight street to street and bleed them down. I tried to talk about that in this piece published a while back in AT theAtlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-military-strategy-russian-failure-kyiv/629514/
Now, maybe those prophesying Ukrainian collapse in the pocket are right, and the Ukrainian army there is in terrible shape and should withdraw. Its just interesting to note that the Ukrainians dont seem to see it that way at present.
Worth adding that Pres Zelensky's speech last night seemed to be very much a call to keep fighting to hold the Donbas. No sign of preparing for a retreat.
There was talk a few days ago that the Ukrainians might be preparing the population for such a pullback. For now that seems to be no longer the case.
And this morning's communique from the Ukrainian armed forces also is portraying the situation in the Donbas as relatively under control. Claims to have beaten back Russian attacks around Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut.
Even update from the Ukrainian armed forces. Russian attempts to expand out again from the Popasna bulge and towards SDonetsk have been unsuccessful.
Lots of reliance on artillery (not surprisingly). Though wonder if the Russians are running out of the mass of front line armor and APCs needed to advance. Has been a noticeable decline in Ukrainian claims of Russian losses the last week. Will tweet more on that tomorrow.
Counter to that is claims by the Chechens they have taken control of Severodonetsk (no evidence of that at this stage) and reports of Ukrainian desertations in Severodonetsk. (There was an article in the Washington Post with a couple of deserters who were fully aware they risked court martial for doing so. They said they couldn't take anymore after 50% losses in their unit. If I can find it again, I'll post). These desertation reports do seem to have credibility. The feeling was they felt they had been abandoned / forgotten by their government and were not getting enough support and without proper air support it was near suicidal. This says that Ukrainian morale in some areas is running into genuine problems.
So definitely a mixed picture and one hard to manage in terms of crucial PR.
Oh and did you hear the one about the Germans foot dragging on heavy weapons and tanks? Again...