Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

I have been watching the programme on Chernobyl the last couple of nights.
The way the whole incident was hushed up in 1985 and total block on information and what was said about Russia not putting any value on the people is exactly what is happening in Ukraine 37 years on

Ukraine NOW [English], [26/05/2022 07:18]
❕Operational summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The invaders are simultaneously advancing in the Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivsky, Novopavlivsk and Lyman directions, the General Staff reports.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled offensive attempts in the area of
the settlements of Ustinivka, Kamyshevakha, Lipove, Nahirne, Krasnohorivka, Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Pisky and Zolota Nyva.

In just 24 hours, Ukrainian defenders repelled 10 enemy attacks on the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

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ISW: Key Takeaways

Russian forces prioritized advances east and west of Popasna in order to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) southwest of Severodonetsk and complete encirclement efforts in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces have likely entered Lyman and may use this foothold to coordinate with advances southeast of Izyum to launch an offensive on Siversk.

Russian forces may start the Battle of Severodonetsk prior to completely cutting off Ukrainian GLOCs southwest and northwest of Severodonetsk.

Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City in an attempt to disrupt a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces operating in the east.

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Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) servicemen–contradicting Russian information campaigns about progress of the Russian special military operation

Russian forces are increasingly facing a deficiency in high-precision weaponry

The Kremlin is attempting to expand the pool of Russian passport-holders in occupied areas [ofc, if you hold a russian passport ... you can be conscripted]

The Kremlin and Russian military commanders are introducing new regulations aimed at addressing the diminishing level of combat-ready reserves. The Russian State Duma and the Russian Federation Council passed a bill raising the maximum age for voluntary enlistment into the Russian military from 40 to 50.[9] Russian Telegram channels also reported that Russian leadership forced operational officers and commanders of the Russian Border Guards of southern Russian regions including Rostov Oblast and occupied Crimea to indefinitely cancel all summer vacations

[ all the above is from www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates which is very well worth a read ]

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The Kyiv Independent, [26/05/2022 04:43]
⚡️ISW: Russia preparing for Battle of Sievierodonetsk.

The Institute for the Study of War said in its May 25 assessment that the intensity of Russian artillery and air attacks, combined with the massing of Russian forces from elsewhere suggests Russia may start its offensive on Sievierodonetsk prior to cutting off Ukrainian ground lines of communication.

Russia “may need to conduct a ground offensive on Sievierodonetsk in the upcoming days to maintain their pace after committing a significant portion of personnel, artillery, aviation, and logistics to the front,” the ISW wrote.

[we are coming to a crunch here]

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The Kyiv Independent, [26/05/2022 10:27]
⚡️Stoltenberg: 'No one can say for sure when and how this war will end.'

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on NATO allies to further support Ukraine in Russia’s “war of attrition” by supplying weapons while preventing escalation to avoid Russia seeing NATO as a belligerent.

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From UkraineNOW telegram channel:

🔗In the temporarily occupied Crimea, they want to exclude the study of English from the school curriculum

“Why teach what is not needed if no one will ever go to London?” – said the so-called speaker of the State Council of Crimea Vladimir Konstantinov.

[maybe because it's a world language, Mr Konstantinov?]

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❕Ukraine has strengthened the defense of the northern border due to the tthreat of penetration of sabotage and reconnaissance groups, - First Deputy Interior Minister Yenin on the air of the All-Ukrainian telethon.

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🔗 Italy, Hungary and Cyprus supported the inclusion of a clause on the need for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in the draft final statement of the EU meeting on May 30-31, according to Reuters.

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Ukraine Now Media
@UkraineNowMedia
·
2h
⚡️🇺🇸US State Department spokesman Ned Price:

"We called on intermediaries from around the world not to disconnect Russia from the Internet, so that information continues to flow into the country, and the Internet remains free and open within Russia itself."

The "Old Europe" (France, Germany, Italy) also doesn't want to live in a world where Ukraine wins. There seems to be this shift of focus from inept older EU countries to more decisive Eastern side of the bloc. The power blanket is being pulled away from them and they don't like it.

The Old Europe are economic powerhouses. Post war they will regain most of their clout, though their poor performance in this crisis has, I think, diminished respect for them and that won't fade for some years. I do think the old Eastern Bloc countries will have more weight now.

Apparently there's a new verb in Ukrainian, "to Macron". It means to promise support and deliver nothing (can't remember where I read that, sorry if it's been pinched from someone upthread!)

Ukraine is facing one of the worlds largest militaries, with the ability to manufacture unlimited amounts of "dumb" ordinance,

That's a simplistic way of putting it; it's not unlimited. My companion, who has had to be the one to cut off his multinational's Russian factories, still gets some news here and there. They are starting to feel the effect of the sanctions in a way that Trent Telenko will be happy to hear. Getting parts for fork lift trucks is getting harder. Anything that was stored more than 3 shelves up in the very high warehouses is out of reach for much longer than normal. Some rail links are suffering. Manufacturing plants are starting to find themselves adversely affected.

Delays are building up. It's a gradual process but it's significant and it's becoming worse. Some parts can be found by hook and crook but it's not enough to keep things functioning normally. All this slow attrition will have an effect.

No doubt military production will be given highest priority but the delays, stutters in production and general problems will have an effect.

In the matter of Eastern European countries getting more influence, I'm not sure how happy that makes me when I look at Viktor Orbán and Andrzej Duda and the way they are running their countries. (I will admit that tRump's open admiration and support for them may have influenced me a bit.)

@Ijsbear

Apparently there's a new verb in Ukrainian, "to Macron". It means to promise support and deliver nothing (can't remember where I read that, sorry if it's been pinched from someone upthread!)

TBH It's disappointing to hear that trotted out again, it was an old joke and probably inaccurate even when it started doing the rounds but I guess it will still cause chortles with the Francophobes.

22 April Milans already delivered, Caesar on the way:

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/france-to-deliver-caesar-artillery-guns-shells-to-ukraine/2570644#:~:text=The%20top%20leadership%20of%20the,to%20fight%20Russian%20armed%20forces.

Yesterday/today reports that Caesar systems were being delivered, French being thanked for the same:

www.cnews.fr/monde/2022-05-26/guerre-en-ukraine-les-soldats-ukrainiens-recoivent-des-canons-caesar-et-remercient

How the Boris promise of heavy weaponry looking?

Germany has certainly been having issues over whether to help, how to help and the pace of doing so. Lithuania, on the other hand...

Oh, just do a search on Andrius Tapinas and today's drive to raise 5 million Euros for a Bayraktar. It has reached nearly 2m. I donated. They are doing bank transfer and paypal.

The level of personal donations from Lithuania (over half the population had made donations in March) privately and through the government has been commendable.

The Lithuanian and Turkish defence ministries are on board.

www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1702258/lithuanian-influencer-launches-eur5m-crowdfunding-to-gift-bayraktar-drone-to-ukraine

How the Boris promise of heavy weaponry looking?

I sure hope it's more reliable than his promise to adhere to lockdown rules.

Ukraine Now Media
@UkraineNowMedia
·
1h
⚡️🇹🇷Reuters: Ankara is negotiating with Kyiv and Moscow to open a corridor through Turkey for grain exports from Ukraine.

This was reported to the agency on Thursday by a high-ranking Turkish official on condition of anonymity.

well Russia wont agree surely the whole point of their action is to blackmail governments

Yeah feels unlikely Russia will agree.

Sanna Marin is visiting Ukraine, to talk about the reconstruction of Irpin when this is all over. yle.fi/news/3-12462325
(slightly bitter note but she's the same age as me and looks at least 10 years younger!)

A little bit of positivity. Back around Easter I ordered from a Ukrainian company on Etsy, pretty much seeing it as a donation with the possibility of goods as a bonus. This week my parcel arrived all the way from Kyiv during a war! Honestly so impressed that people are there getting on with running their businesses and fulfilling orders.

Oh that's lovely terrywynne :)

Ha Radar, Land cruisers, Brimstones (excellent) but not that many.... no heavy artillery.
I think the popularity contest of "dealing with the Cost of living" has taken over now.

Someone was on Ch4 or Sky, said that to clear the backlog of stored grain in Ukraine would take 1m lorry journeys, shipping is the only way to get grain out of Ukraine.
If this isn't done very soon, then this years harvest has no where to go.

I think it's time to get the grain out of Ukraine to stop hundreds of thousands of deaths down the line. How long can we sit back and say '...but Nukes' for? Surely not even Russia would be stupid enough to fire at a peaceful UN shipping convoy. The grain doesn't belong to them and the sea doesn't belong to them. I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe where Putin gets to call all the shots and dictate to the world who lives and who dies.

And China is watching and taking notice.

Completely agree, Desdamonas.

Someone was on Ch4 or Sky, said that to clear the backlog of stored grain in Ukraine would take 1m lorry journeys, shipping is the only way to get grain out of Ukraine.

Seen similar calculations done with regard to use of rail and it's a non starter (and apparently there's a rail gauge change at the western Ukrainian border to make it even more complex....).

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

Surely not even Russia would be stupid enough to fire at a peaceful UN shipping convoy.

A few years back somebody decided a civil airliner over Ukraine was fair game.

Given that event I wouldn't put it past Putin to authorise the sinking of merchant shipping if it suited him and his aims.

The Kyiv Independent, [26/05/2022 16:36]
⚡️Deputy Defense Minister: Russians are storming Ukrainian positions ‘simultaneously in different areas.’

According to Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s losses “are inevitable” since the situation at the frontline remains difficult, with the signs of further escalation.

Maliar also reports that Russians are using all of their “forces and means” to encircle Ukrainian troops.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief hief · Today 15:25
I think it's time to get the grain out of Ukraine to stop hundreds of thousands of deaths down the line. How long can we sit back and say '...but Nukes' for? Surely not even Russia would be stupid enough to fire at a peaceful UN shipping convoy. The grain doesn't belong to them and the sea doesn't belong to them. I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe where Putin gets to call all the shots and dictate to the world who lives and who dies.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel · Today 15:28
Completely agree, Desdamonas.

I agree. I cannot understand any world order in which Russia can claim the Black Sea as theirs and shoot grain ships.

Presumably experts do think they really would do this and think no one but NATO could clear the mines, but that using NATO would lead to escalation.

To me sometimes this all feels like watching the fiasco of Afghanistan as the last planes took off.

It sounds like it's crunch time. Praying for them ...

A few years back somebody decided a civil airliner over Ukraine was fair game.

Given that event I wouldn't put it past Putin to authorise the sinking of merchant shipping if it suited him and his aims.

I totally agree that taking action to get the harvest out of Ukraine on containers carries a huge risk, any peaceable shipping convoy would need a heavy military presence to deter aggression, and that in itself brings a risk of escalation, but how long can we continue to avoid intervention in order to avoid escalation? We're avoiding 'boots on the ground' at all costs but can we continue to look the other way whilst Putin holds grain and sunflower oil hostage and threatens famine for poorer countries and spiralling living costs for the rest.

Putin doesn't want to be at war with NATO, Russia don't want MAD so it's a calculated gamble.

We've watched Russia invade a peaceable neighbour and bomb civilian areas to rubble. It's ongoing attempt at genocide, horrendous war crimes have been uncovered and verified - including the rape of children.
Now a large proportion of the poorest areas of the world are facing famine because of this war and the knock on effects of that in terms of civil unrest and migration patterns could destabilise the West further as Putin is well aware - sooner or later surely we have to stop appeasing and I can't think of a better reason to intervene than getting the grain harvest that Russia doesn't own out of a country that isn't part of Russia via a sea that is in international waters.

@Ijsbear Today 16:11
It sounds like it's crunch time. Praying for them

From CNN
Rostyslav Smirnov, an adviser to the minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, told Ukrainian television that "the advantage of the Russians in [terms of] personnel is eight to one," and the advantage in equipment more than twice that.

A few years back somebody decided a civil airliner over Ukraine was fair game.

Given that event I wouldn't put it past Putin to authorise the sinking of merchant shipping if it suited him and his aims

From the BBC Sounds series 'Putin', it seems like he actively authorised bombings of residential flats in Moscow by the FSB, claiming it was Chechen terrorists in order to 'justify' invading Chechnya.

Merchant shipping would be nothing to him.