Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

FUCK you, Russian Government

🇨🇿The Czech Republic officially joined the UN Human Rights Council.

The Czech Republic filled the vacant place after Russia was expelled in April 2022.

"The Czech Republic will retain this place until December 31, 2023," the press service of the Human Rights Council said.

Their term expires in September, so it makes even less sense. Although according to Russian BBC it's 4, the 5th one just said he won't be extending his term beyond September.

They are either trying to escape being sanctioned, or realising shit is about to hit the fan. Or a combination of both. I think we'll be seeing much more of this.

This made my heart sink. I don't know what I was expecting, but he's not going to stop is he? Recent US assessment of Russian strategy: news.yahoo.com/putin-ready-long-war-beyond-135737696.html

WARNING
Unbearable news:

Russian troops separate mother and child evacuated from Azovstal | Ukrayinska Pravda

According to someone from Azovstal steel plant writing on Telegram, the mother never was returned after a check point. Only the four year old little girl arrived in Zaporizhzhia.

www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/8/7344950/

@MagicFox · 10/05/2022 17:56
This made my heart sink. I don't know what I was expecting, but he's not going to stop is he? Recent US assessment of Russian strategy: news.yahoo.com/putin-ready-long-war-beyond-135737696.html

The same here, Magic Fox. I saw that earlier on the BBC site too.

Sorry if this sounds stupid, admittedly I'm not 100% clued up.

How can he possibly afford to keep going? They've been saying he'll run out of equipment etc, the west have made it very obvious that we're happy to keep supplying Ukraine and help them rebuild. Putin surely can't keep plucking soldiers out of nowhere. Even if, as horrible as it sounds, he keeps just throwing men in to fight surely he will eventually run out of men willing to do so.

Sanctions will surely begin to hit and hurt, too. I'm just a bit confused as to how he can possibly afford to keep it going.

Sorry if it's a stupid understanding!

Not stupid at all, I'd like to know too! The US thinks he will mobilise and declare martial law. My concern is that we're starting to see so much overspill in terms of instability. It's imperative that the war stays in ukraine but the longer it goes on and the more escalatory it gets (which is all Putin has) the more danger Europe is in. Belarus are banging on about their amazing army and missile hosting now, perceiving that they're being threatened by NATO via Poland. Too many moving threads

In the link, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines is quoted as saying "the Russian leader is counting on being able to outlast Western support for Ukraine as the war drags on. "Putin most likely also judges that Russia has a greater ability and willingness to endure challenges than his adversaries, and he is probably counting on US and EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy prices get worse"

This is what I don' t understand. If US and EU come under pressure from their populace for food shortages, inflation and energy prices, wouldn't the obvious solution be to end the war (i.e. pulverise Russia out of Ukraine once and for all and bloody well unblock the Black Sea) rather than not continue to support Ukraine over time. Russia is not suddenly going to be happily occupying Ukraine and becoming a net grain exporter, as opposed to theft, nor is the West going to lift sanctions just because Russia gets the land it wants.

He is hoping he can use starvation as a weapon or Western resolve will fracture / cost of living will lead to the public forcing a settlement on Ukraine.

He's hoping that The West will offer him an exit if he extends the war so that "we" get fed up with supporting Ukraine and the associated cost of living.

So in the U.K. there is political pressure to fix what's wrong in the U.K. by telling Ukraine to end the war on unfavourable terms.

I just can't see that happening though. It's been made clear that western sanctions will only be dropped with Ukraine's agreement.

I also don't believe Putin realises the gravity of how what's he's done is perceived in the West. I genuinely do not believe there's an appetite to abandon Ukraine from the populations of most western countries.

This also relates to US remarks that they can't see an off ramp for Putin and they are thinking about how to address that.

I think RTB said they only saw this ending with Putin's downfall and I'm broadly in agreement.

Irrespective of how much pressure the cost of living crisis puts on the West, I can't see people demonstrating to end support for Ukraine to alleviate it.

But what kind of exit is he expecting from the west? He seems to be resolutely not looking for off ramps and exits

Thanks all. That's helped my understanding!

Is any of this affecting countries like India/ China etc in a negative way? I'm just wondering whether they will be applying more pressure to Putin to step down if all of this was beginning to play part in their lives too. Hope that makes sense? I can't see that this will be any good for them in the long run either.

I can't see the Russian population agreeing to go and fight in Ukraine. Martial law? That's going to go down well there too. He's opening a powder keg if he honestly believes the population will be on board with this. He's deluded and desperate. I hope he has enough soldiers to carry through with this plan......oh, sorry, they're lying dead in Ukraine aren't they?

And that's the issue. Impasse.

I can't see an agreement that can be reached that would be agreed to by Putin or Ukraine.

Putin wants a victory and Ukraine won't (understandably) let him gain from what he's done.

IMHO the only way out lies in Russia and a new leadership whose prepared to lay the blame for all this at Putin's door and say they want to rebuild a new Russia with and new outlook that involves trying to re-create the USSR.

The problem is that after 20 years, Putin's grasp on Russia is so tight I'm not sure that's possible. You're talking about a massive ideological shift in thinking, not just from the political elite and oligarchy but also from the people- many of whom will have lost loved ones in this war.

History tells us that it only ever ends one way with these characters - they never back down.

He will starve his own people, collapse his own economy to serve his own increasingly agitated and irrational ego. The only possible way this will end is from within Russia.

On a protest outside the Russian embassy in London on day one I saw someone hold a placard which said “can we just cut to the chase where Putin ends up dead in a bunker” - like every other despot before him.

I think he's genuinely expecting to create the Black Sea land corridor from the East of Ukraine and the South as far as Transnistra.

Then he'll regroup and bite off more of Ukraine bit by bit going northwards, unless he falls on his back with his last breath rattling in his throat. At that point the question will be who succeeds him and what's their attitude. If it's the FSB hawk, god help us.

agreed with DFOD's assessment

Fucking hell, that proud and oh so ragged Ukrainian flag still flying above the steelworks.

Pass me yer wine TiddyTwoToo

Well if the only hope is revolution in Russia...can I have some of your wine?

Ps I am seriously nervous about the FSB guy. He looks like an evil hawk, like he physically reflects his soul

@RedToothBrush great post! It made me cry today. I'm a Brit with Ukrainian parents and I'm so proud that the country is showing the world who we are, our passion for our country, the importance of freedom and our willingness to fight for our existence.

We are now on the map and the world knows where we are... I just wish it didn't didn't come at such a high cost. 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!

It the only hope is revolution in Russia, Putin arming large numbers of unwilling conscripts might actually be a good thing. It could occur to them that he rather than Ukraine is their most pressing problem.

Here you go Ijbear. 🍷🍷I am so immensely proud of Ukraine and I think the relationship with us Brits in the future will be a real special, long lasting friendship.

I am also proud of the the US, Canada, us and of course the Eastern European countries who absolutely get it and doing all we can to assist Ukraine to win this war. And they will.

I just wish we could do more and end the suffering. And for the love of god, save those exceptional soldiers in the steel works

Yhank you tiddy shares with @MagicFox

And Japan has taken very strong notice of what's going on. Like rousing the German martial spirit, awakening Japan again is ... interesting times.

Ukraine NOW [English], [10/05/2022 20:59]
[ Photo ]
❕WHO will suspend all activities in Russia and will also consider closing its office in Moscow.

WHO supported the resolution prepared by Ukraine, and the members of the Regional Committee for Europe voted in favor of the relevant document.

43 countries voted "for" and only three – the Russian Federation, Belarus and Tajikistan – had their votes "against" this decision.

WHO will stop holding all events (conferences, seminars, meetings) in the Russian Federation under the auspices of WHO. They will also consider moving the WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases outside the Russian Federation.

20:53 Zelensky: Russia does not agree to any option for saving Mariupol defenders

Ukraine uses all possible diplomatic tools to rescue the defenders of Mariupol, but Russia has not yet agreed to any of the many options offered

I wish we could tie Putin up and put him in the middle of all the families who lost relatives in Bucha and Mariupol.

Oh yes, Japan too!

Very disappointed with Macron I have to say. He's on the phone too much to Putin and Xi and achieving nothing. Actions, not words.

I did hear that after naming an embankment in Ukraine after boris, that they'd name a telephone box after macron 😂 that did make me laugh.

Xi and him asking for a ceasefire. Pathetic. A cease fire would be a disaster for Ukraine as in Russia would capitalise and regroup on their gains to push again later on. No, not a ceasefire but a complete withdrawal, including crimea is the only long term solution. Anyway, I'm sure Zelenksyy and Ukrainians are way too pissed off now to give Putin an inch, and rightly so.