Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

Ukraine had been making gains around parts of Kherson...

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · 09/05/2022 18:23
⚡️ Russia increases number of missile carriers in Black Sea.

As of May 9, Russia has 7 carriers of Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea that can fire up to 50 missiles, Defense Ministry said. On May 4, Ukraine’s military reported 3 Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea.

Sorry if this has been posted already...but this has really upset me if this is true. The south coast has no chance? This cannot be permitted

I just cannot understand either how one country can be allowed take control of a sea like this.

Also grain not being allowed to get to other countries will cause famine and many other repercussions. That is an act of violence in itself.

Totally agree @ScrollingLeaves.

Well GOOD! fiercely

Neither do I.
Whose territory is the Black Sea?

ukraineun.org/en/press-center/560-joint-statement-on-the-occasion-of-the-77th-anniversary-of-the-end-of-the-second-world-war-in-europe/

Russia has a Black Sea fleet. Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey can stop the transit of military vessels into the Black Sea - but there is a loophole as they're allowed in if they're "normally" based there. Turkey had already refused transit to 3 Russian vessels - and the 4th (which was normally based in the Black Sea) decided it no longer needed to go through and stayed with the other 3. Maybe it changed its mind?

The other possibility is that vessels that were undergoing refits/maintenance in Crimea might now have gone back into active service.

Sorry - I see that others have already answered

That's a good statement minsmum

@prettybird I think you expanded the point which was informative, thankyou.

Two very brave Russian journalists put anti-war articles online, they are incredibly brave in the current climate in Russia.

‘Paranoid dictator’: Russian journalists fill pro-Kremlin site with anti-war articles
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/09/russian-journalists-pro-kremlin-site-lenta-anti-war-articles

@prettybird · 09/05/2022 20:45
Russia has a Black Sea fleet. Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey can stop the transit of military vessels into the Black Sea - but there is a loophole as they're allowed in if they're "normally" based there. Turkey had already refused transit to 3 Russian vessels - and the 4th (which was normally based in the Black Sea) decided it no longer needed to go through and stayed with the other 3. Maybe it changed its mind?

The other possibility is that vessels that were undergoing refits/maintenance in Crimea might now have gone back into active service.

re: the loophole that military vessels are allowed if they are already based there, why do other countries not have military vessels normally based there - specifically UKraine?

Iirc, Ukraine's navy was tiny (most of it had been in Crimea ) and a lot of what was left of it was destroyed/sunk/damaged in the early days of the war, particularly in Berdiansk. As a non aggressive world power, I doubt it had any vessels in the Mediterranean/elsewhere to transit the Bosporus back to the Black Sea

Utterly, utterly, tragic that Ukraine can be attacked by air and now by sea and we have to stand by and watch.

Ukraine has submitted the 2nd part of the answers to the special questionnaire to join Europe. It runs to about 9 thick books!

Some politicians have said it might take years and years tho :(

It will take years. I think they will get support and fast tracked if they are commited to democratic principles and there is relative internal political stability (by this I mean highlevels of support for EU ascension and corruption is something thats worked HARD on). Countries which have had candidate status have been stuck for years.

The two stumbling blocks will be the war itself, if it rumbles on (this is actually a reason for Putin to just go for a long war - it blocks EU membership) and border disputes.

Even with the best will in the world, I reckon upwards of 10 years is realistic.

The thing to remember is that there are fairly strict requirements for EU membership. Lots of countries have tried for years to become members (notably Turkey) and have so far been unsuccessful. There are a fair few of the requirements that Ukraine don’t meet, and didn’t even before the war.

They will also have to wait for Albania and North Macedonia to join and that seems to be a bit of a stumbling block, with Bulgaria blocking them.

@TargusEasting
I remember Billy Connolly talking about his Parkinson's. Apparently, he was first put on notice when somebody came up to him in the US and said he should get checked out as he had the 'Parkinson's walk' which is a particular gait that is visible to the trained eye at early stage. Is that true?

Sufferer's I have known would not be able to make the speeches he has done (though steroids can fix many things). I am not questioning whether he has the disease or not, but curious if he could still speak the way he does?

There is a very typical fast, shuffling gait that is characteristic of Parkinsonism. Not everyone will have it and the severity will depend on how far the disease has progressed.

Similarly, there are some characteristic speech problems again, not everyone will have them and the severity varies from person to person.
www.parkinsons.org.uk/information-and-support/speech-and-communication-problems

All these symptoms can be caused by other conditions, not just Parkinson's disease.

Washington Post tweet:

Russians using smart TVs reported seeing something atypical: A message appeared instead of the usual channels. “The blood of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of murdered children is on your hands,” read a message that took over their screens.

Excellent! Perhaps the messages will be getting out there now. Could there possibly be a revolt at some point? 🤔 I think this kind of activity is going to step up, particularly as they've all seen for themselves how old, sick and useless their putrid leader is.

Re Ukraine’s EU membership, I just came across this on Twitter. I wonder if this would be positive for the time being? Obviously full EU membership for Ukraine is ideal, but could this be a potential stopgap, or would it work against Ukraine gaining full EU membership?

“President @ EmmanuelMacron today offered a sweeping vision of a new European Political Community - an outer circle of European states, including Ukraine and the UK, which would be linked to the EU but not part of it 1/“

“He said his vision of a wider circle of European states would provide a way of bringing Ukraine and other countries, such as Georgia and Moldova, into the European fold more rapidly than full EU membership which could take “years or even decades” 3/“

https://mobile.twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1523659700406931462

There's not a queue per se to join the EU: it's happens when an accession state meets the all the requirements of EU membership and the communautaire acquis - but it can be blocked by a veto from any member country. On both these counts, Ukraine is likely to face problems, so it's not going to be any time zoom.

There's also no requirement to use the Euro immediately, just a commitment to join the Eurozone when the monetary requirements are met (funny how Sweden never quite meets the convergence criteria ).

There are benefits to being formally acknowledged as an accession state though

Yes and no.

Austria have already said they want Albania and North Macedonia to join first, because they have been waiting for years.

That's why I mentioned the veto