www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2022/03/with-russia-tied-down-in-ukraine-other-frozen-conflicts-are-thawing?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648727707-3
With Russia tied down in Ukraine, other frozen conflicts are thawing
From the Caucasus to the western Pacific, Russia’s opponents are eyeing their chances of redressing the balance of power.
Just across the border lies the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, formally inside Azerbaijan but held by Armenian separatists since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and run as a de facto part of Armenia. Two years ago, a brief but bloody conflict broke out, with Azerbaijan’s forces capturing swathes of territory in the breakaway province and evicting the ethnic Armenians who had lived there. Now, despite a Moscow-brokered ceasefire, there are fears the fighting could start up again.
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Last weekend, one of those drones carried out a strike on an Armenian position, killing three servicemen and injuring several others. At the same time, Azerbaijani soldiers were accused of having rolled past Russian outposts to take a village in the demilitarised zone, sparking evacuations and fears that a return to full-scale hostilities could be on the cards. Yerevan has accused Moscow of doing nothing to stop the incursion, with the Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan calling the Kremlin to “stress the need for Russian peacekeepers to return the Azerbaijanis to their starting positions”.
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In theory, Moscow is obliged to protect Armenia, as a member of its Collective Security Treaty Organisation defence pact. But with the reputation of its armed forces shattered as a result of its botched offensive in Ukraine, it is looking like a less reliable partner with each passing day. Gegham Stepanyan, the human rights ombudsman for the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh – as Armenians refer to Nagorno-Karabakh – told the New Statesman that “a peacekeeping mission based only on Russia’s political influence is vulnerable”. According to him, “the Azerbaijani side is trying to question the reputation of the Russian peacekeepers and their mission.”
Putin’s woes, however, present an opportunity for another regional power looking to assert itself. The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has presented himself as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv, with a series of peace talks being held in Istanbul and Antalya. However, simultaneously, he has openly provided Ukraine with the same advanced Bayraktar attack drones that Azerbaijan has used in Nagorno-Karabakh, helping them to take out vast numbers of Russian tanks and troop transports. Across eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Erdoğan is unpicking the webs of Russian influence that have held fast for more than a century and is moving in to fill the gaps.
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In nearby Georgia, a series of videos have been shared widely online calling for an assault on Abkhazia, a region of the country occupied by Moscow-backed rebels since the country's war with Russia in 2008. Hundreds of Georgian fighters are believed to have gone to fight in Ukraine against Russia and, in one clip, armed volunteers near the front lines told those back home: “we urge you to take up arms and strike at the enemy. We will never have such a chance again.”