BBC Live feed this morning
Putin not being told the truth on Ukraine - UK intelligence agency
The head of the UK's cyber and security agency, GCHQ, believes Russia has massively misjudged the situation in Ukraine and some of Vladimir Putin’s advisers are not telling him the truth.
Sir Jeremy Fleming has given a rare speech during a visit to Australia in which he said that Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale – had refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and even accidentally shot down their own aircraft.
Putin's advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, he said, but what's going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime.
"It all adds up to the strategic miscalculation that Western leaders warned Putin it would be. It's become his personal war, with the cost being paid by innocent people in Ukraine and, increasingly, by ordinary Russians too."
Sir Jeremy also said there were risks for China in being too closely aligned with Russia.
Beijing’s aspirations to become a leading player on the global stage would not be served by being associated with a regime in Moscow that had willfully and illegally ignored global rules, he said.
Here's a summary of the other points he covered:
President Volodymyr Zelensky's information operation has been extremely effective
Mercenaries, including the Wagner group, will have an effect on the outcome of the conflict
Many of them will be used as "cannon fodder" to limit Russian deaths
Hacking and ransomware groups have pledged allegiance to both sides
This makes things very complicated and in some ways beyond the control of governments
Why US and UK may have coordinated views on Kremlin tensions
Gordon Corera
Security correspondent, BBC News
The GCHQ Director’s comments that Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth align closely with those put out by US officials a little earlier.
They suggested he was being misled about both the military and economic situation Russia faces and that there was tension between the Kremlin and the Russian Defence Ministry.
The timing suggests a coordinated push by London and Washington to get this message across.
The two countries' spy agencies have so far been shown to have a good insight into what’s going on inside the Kremlin – warning that a major invasion was coming before it started and that Putin was misjudging what he might face.
They may be hoping to stoke some of the tensions inside Moscow as well as emphasise the Kremlin’s failings.
But they will also know that there are real consequences if Putin is still not getting ground truth about what is going on.
That could lead to further misjudgements including over-optimism about whether Russia can still win some kind of military victory – and that in turn could prolong the war and impact on negotiations.
It does have to be stressed that its noticable how closely British and American Intelligence are working together.