Jade McGlynn @DrJadeMcGlynn
Does Russian aggression come from the West being threatening or from the West being weak?
I don’t think these options are mutually exclusive. In fact, i think that, for the Kremlin, they are interconnected…
The key word here is decadence. Putin and his advisers see the ‘West’ as a decadent power both in the sense of depravity, loss of moral compass, self-indulgence and in the sense of decaying/being on the way out
Last year’s National Security Strategy made this abundantly clear. The first few pages set out the Kremlin’s vision of the crumbling Western world order and how US& allies will lash out and go to extreme lengths to preserve their hegemony - especially cultural and ideological
There is a long section devoted to Western attempts to undermine Russian culture, history and values from the inside (thru internal enemies) and from outside thru media, films, books, etc.
This issue is presented as an existential one for Russia.
So, a weird logic emerges in which the West’s weakness, its greed, its refusal to kick out oligarchs or stand up for values by taking real financial hits (as per 2014) is evidence of its decadence. But this decadence, as it develops, is proof of growing danger
Russia expects Western decline to spur US and allies into ever more reckless attempts to shore up their power, culturally and militarily. It doesn’t entirely distinguish these two threats. Its enmity towards NATO is as much a geocultural one as anything else
Besides, the cultural decay (demonstrable as weakness b4 🇷🇺 aggression) increases the military threat.
This theme of cultural and moral decay is a constant in Putin’s speeches since at least 2012 and in Russian media which even now covers European and US social divisions with vim and vigour
Given the perceived correlation betw West weakness &threat, 🇷🇺 was always likely to strike out when it thought West was at optimal point of the weak/danger balance
But 🇷🇺 underestimated Western resolve to defend values (albeit not by a lot). They hugely underestimated Ukraine & forgot to factor in Russian decay - the (moral and otherwise) corruption that permeates many 🇷🇺 institutions and parts of society.
Ironically, while focussing so much on the symbiosis of Western decay and dangerousness, Russia itself came to embody this interconnection, as its authoritarian rot meant there was nobody brave enough to call out the madness and risks of invading Ukraine
(In this context Zelensky's Servant of the People becomes doubly interesting. It also explains a lot about how C4's Last Leg REALLY upset Putin and resulted in threats a few years back)