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Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

998 replies

MagicFox · 27/03/2022 07:23

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

OP posts:
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33
ChardonnaysPetDragon · 29/03/2022 09:14

I see you have removed the translation, Alwayscheerful.

Alwayscheerful · 29/03/2022 09:15

From Twitter

Ukraine Invasion: Part 17
EsmaCannonball · 29/03/2022 09:15

I've just read Tom Burgis's Kleptopia and one of the things discussed is the Kremlin tactic of destabilising the truth. The internet is key in this. If you can't kill or imprison your enemy then you put out lies about him on the internet. It doesn't matter how outrageous or ludicrous the lie is, once it is out there it becomes part of the discourse and the waters are forever muddied and disturbed. It's an official strategy.

DuncinToffee · 29/03/2022 09:16

BBC

Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich - the owner of Chelsea football club - has been spotted inside the Istanbul talks.

In pictures broadcast by Turkish media, he is seen sitting at a table alongside Ibrahim Kalin - a spokesman for President Erdogan, and is wearing translation headphones.

He’s not at the main table of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

Kalin has reportedly helped coordinate meetings between the Russian oligarch and a member of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul hotels.

The presence of Abramovich suggests he’s still involved at some level in the mediation attempts.

ChardonnaysPetDragon · 29/03/2022 09:20

Yeah, that's it. Except with lots more swearing.

Igotjelly · 29/03/2022 09:21

@DuncinToffee

BBC

Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich - the owner of Chelsea football club - has been spotted inside the Istanbul talks.

In pictures broadcast by Turkish media, he is seen sitting at a table alongside Ibrahim Kalin - a spokesman for President Erdogan, and is wearing translation headphones.

He’s not at the main table of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

Kalin has reportedly helped coordinate meetings between the Russian oligarch and a member of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul hotels.

The presence of Abramovich suggests he’s still involved at some level in the mediation attempts.

Well if he was indeed poisoned he’s either very brave, has a personal invested interest in the talks or it’s now in Putin’s interest to actually negotiate.
DuncinToffee · 29/03/2022 09:23

Could be all three, Igotjelly

ClaudineClare · 29/03/2022 09:24

Kyiv Independent is reporting that authorities eliminate 5 Russian bot farms since start of invasion

A few MN posters may mysteriously vanish as a result...

DuncinToffee · 29/03/2022 09:25

Hope this will actually happen
AFP #UPDATE Ukraine to reopen humanitarian corridors and evacuate civilians from war-scarred regions after one-day pause over what Kyiv calls possible Russian "provocations".

"Three humanitarian corridors were agreed for today," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk says

meditrina · 29/03/2022 09:29

I don't think it's either of those Igotjelly

I think it's his strategy for personal survival.

Most people who are not Russia-watchers could not have named a single oligarch before this. But they did know RA - why, because he bought a high profile football club and threw money at it to make it even better. Meaning people knew about him, would notice if anything happened to him - it would be in the sports section and probably the front pages of every newspaper. People would be paying attention. It alters the risks of assassinating him - and his gamble is that he has made it less likely.

Unlike other oligarchs, names barely known, make the middle pages foreign news section if that. That is their gamble - quiet life without pissing off the Kremlin. And they're pretty much staying quiet.

RA is staying as front and centre as he can. It's a way of becoming too big to fail. It may or may not work.

HappyWinter · 29/03/2022 09:31

@EsmaCannonball

I've just read Tom Burgis's Kleptopia and one of the things discussed is the Kremlin tactic of destabilising the truth. The internet is key in this. If you can't kill or imprison your enemy then you put out lies about him on the internet. It doesn't matter how outrageous or ludicrous the lie is, once it is out there it becomes part of the discourse and the waters are forever muddied and disturbed. It's an official strategy.
Agreed, they try to sow the tiniest seed of doubt and hope that it will grow. There was an article recently about how climate change denial and covid denial become less prevalant online when the Russian invasion started as they switched to pro-Russian propaganda.

It's pretty obvious that Russia has invaded Ukraine, they have been the aggressors and that while every country has a degree of corruption (just look at our government in the UK for a good example of government corruption, would anyone like a PPE contract?), and issues with the far right but it is in no way, shape or form any justification for Russia's invasion and the humanitarian catastrophe they have unleashed. Over 130 children have died in Ukraine, that is horrifying.

EsmaCannonball · 29/03/2022 09:36

It has to be remembered that the accusation against Abramovich is that he is Putin's bagman. He knows where the money is, or maybe he even has the money. The Kremlin itself may have reasons for wanting Abramovich to remain free, mobile and unsanctioned.

DuncinToffee · 29/03/2022 09:54

Maybe he has one of those 'little black books'

RedToothBrush · 29/03/2022 09:55

[quote Ijsbear]@AngelsForever I think you got a bit of a rough ride here.

These threads are up to number 17 now and the same questions came up over and over again early on and it feels a bit like going back over the same ground again. But your questions were reasonable and you were very clear that Putin's aggression is not ok.

It's a disconcerting realisation when you grow into adulthood that the unquestioning faith you have when you're small that the Government is good and right and this is how things are and should be - well, that faith isn't justified. Questioning and applying a bit of skepticism is good.

In the early threads there were a number of suspiciously recently registered posters posting anti-Ukraine stuff, which Mumsnet tackled. People have become suspicious.[/quote]
I went on a long journey over the idea of whether my government was good over NI. 29 years down the line.

I could not process IRA bombings without looking at the reasons why the IRA did it and I couldn't get away from the injustice and oppression that the British government caused as part of that.

The one thing that was very clear was who paid the price of that most. Once you see it, I don't think you can unsee it for any situation. On 9/11 I found it hard to hear Americans talking about terrorism as if it was something they hadn't been party to elsewhere in the world given their support of the IRA. Going to Serbia and seeing first hand how NATO bombing had affected the mentality of ordinary citizens was eye opening. When seeing whats happening in Ukraine, I can't help but think about how other parts of the world affected by Western Wars are reacting to the rhetoric of Western governments.

Breaking the cycle of conflict and mistrust takes a huge amount of time and effort. Its possible but difficult and leaves long lasting tensions on the psychologically of nations.

War is the ultimate failure of diplomacy. However as part of that you have to examine where ideology has overrun rationale and the point at which one party decides it no longer desires diplomacy. Cos until they regain that they won't desire peace. We also have to recognise that some individuals do not see war as bad, just a means to extend their lust for power because they have a disregard for other people's lives.

I think one of the big questions which has to be asked over Ukraine - Russia is whether Putin is capable and willing to abandon the ideology which has driven this war. Can someone be deradicalised because the reality of being unable to achieve a military goal gets in the way? I think its hard to avoid this question.

Because the answer has huge implications.

I think too many people in the West look for peace without examining the rationale for the war in the first place because they are good faith players who can't comprehend others having such a total lack of regard for human life. They assume that all people think war is bad rather than realising some think its an opportunity for self gain.

We have the paradox of one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter and examples which have highlighted how positive change is possible. Mandela is the classic example. We look to this perhaps too often.

Putin doesn't fit this model because he is exploitative and abuse towards even of his own and I think thats also massively overlooked in western thinking in terms of any peace. How many people are Ukraine prepared to abandon to their fate with Putin? Zelensky has impossible choices to make at some point.

Its not for the West to answer questions about terms of peace for this reason, but we certainly should be asking questions about them.

I saw an article yesterday which talked about two different concepts: Saving Ukraine v Defeating Putin. They are aims we think are the same thing. The argument, correctly pointed out they are two distinct and separate things. Conflating the two creates problems (Arguably this is where Afghanistan got particularly messed up because it was initially about neutralising a threat to the west and then morphed into this idea of saving the people of Afghanistan and then managed to fuck up both in the process). They need to addressed separately and defined as distinct goals. The argument went on, that this is why Biden's outburst was problematic. Not because what he said was wrong - Putin does need to go. But because we also need to make sure we keep the two ideas in our heads as separate. Linked but separate.

Hope this makes sense. I've spent a long long time thinking about this stuff and still haven't got it all into a completely coherent way of thinking. Largely because there are no wholly good players. I do think there are wholly bad players though who actively weaponise grievance for their own power though.

Ijsbear · 29/03/2022 09:56

Agreed Abramovich is walking a very strange path.

If he does gain power though, at least he's not come from the same KGB background as Putin and might possibly not be so skilfully destructive

Ijsbear · 29/03/2022 10:01

Wonderful post RTB.

can't post much atm but I truly believe the only way of healing for the future is to concentrate on the growing children, with a conscious, wide ranging and well funded govt strategy

MMBaranova · 29/03/2022 10:13

Behind the lines.

Just exchanged messages with a relative in Kherson oblast [NOT the city, just a small linear settlement between places in the south of the Dnieper part]. Have taken out personal and locational identifiers and our conversation is rather basic on an are you alive and is there food level. No deep geopolitical discussion. She's mid-20s and has Russian as a first language. We tend to use English.

Poor network connection. I asked whether they still has Ukrainian SIMS in their phones as had read that in some place the occupiers were making them use Russian ones. Not there. However the Russians have ransacked the house and made them show what was on their phones, which they found scary. Phones not taken though.

Little food is delivered and prices are high. There is a store that is a bit like an everything village shop you get in Britain and Ireland, think Spar, within walking distance. There is at least bread there and currently a fairly random selection of other goods. I send her money and she can get things via her linked Ukrainian bank card, so that is still operational there - no forced introduction of Rubles.

Her summary of the situation is that there was shooting last night and 'everything is not good'. She's going to pray for me, but I think that's the wrong direction.

DuncinToffee · 29/03/2022 10:14

The Moscow Times @MoscowTimes

Russia has temporarily exempted young IT workers from military service after an exodus of programmers following Moscow's military operation in Ukraine

mpsw · 29/03/2022 10:19

On 9/11 I found it hard to hear Americans talking about terrorism as if it was something they hadn't been party to elsewhere in the world given their support of the IRA

Yes, I think there was considerable surprise in some quarters in US when one of the very early reactions was "will you now listen to our pleas and stop funding the IRA".

Supporting the end shouldn't encompass supporting all means to that end.

meditrina · 29/03/2022 10:31

two different concepts: Saving Ukraine v Defeating Putin ....
The argument went on, that this is why Biden's outburst was problematic. Not because what he said was wrong - Putin does need to go. But because we also need to make sure we keep the two ideas in our heads as separate

And it's a problem that we have made worse by the establishment of ICC for war crimes. Yes, of course we want to see prosecutions - it offends on so many levels to think that the perpetrators could get off 'scot free'

But if your only hope is to hold power (heads of state are not prosecuted) and to keep the campaign going, that's a lot more that is destroyed with each month and year it goes on.

Idi Amin had safe exile. The leaders in former Yugoslavia knew it was unlikely they could (despite plausible offers) so they had to fight on - probably extended the war by a year or more, and of course once you know you'll lose liberty/life, what incentive is there to avoid further atrocities.

This is why talk of an "off ramp" matters, and why Putin is unlikely to find one for himself because of the continuing chances of prosecution. The idea of him living out his life somewhere in comfortable exile causes an immediate and huge sense of revulsion. But pragmatically, what path leads to less human suffering?

DGRossetti · 29/03/2022 10:38

But pragmatically, what path leads to less human suffering?

Asking a question like that presumes a tendency towards rationalism that isn't really supported in any society.

MMBaranova · 29/03/2022 10:51

Idi Amin came up when I was looking at deposed leaders in exile. Not that I think Putin would go into exile. A heart attack, unfortunate fall from a window or the Ceausescu option are more likely. However the most likely medium term option as I see it as of the end of March is that he just stays on.

I suspect that there will be a ceasefire, especially if Russian forces can push into Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts while not ceding too much ground elsewhere. From 'OK let's stop fighting so we can talk' it would solidify into a de facto partition along front lines (if there are front lines). The conflicts over Abkhazia, S Ossetia and Transnistria all stopped in place with occasional pushing the fence forward a bit over the years. I can see that happening with Ukraine but on a larger scale. Declaring Novorossiya with someone like Yanukovych in notional charge might give an 'off ramp'. Crucially the irrigation canal down to Crimea would remain captured, thus allowing the agricultural potential of the peninsula to really bounce back.

But so many other things could happen. The next Presidential election is 2024. Putin the victor might then try to sit out six years of physical and mental deterioration while minions increasingly take up the reigns as Russia works on its role in a world where it has fired all but the nuclear bullets and has been forced to de-link economically with the West, but still has 'friends'. Maybe.

MMBaranova · 29/03/2022 10:52

Reins. But reigns work in a way.

baroqueandblue · 29/03/2022 11:06

Great post @RTB, and your thinking is really well articulated, as it goes. Made me think about those good faith actors and the "not wholly good" as unavoidably one and the same these days, in a way. In the UK and USA, for example, we can't ignore our own shadow in these deadly games of war, and if we own up we probably can't claim wholly good faith. That's what worries me about where we are, and where our kids might be going as a result of Western wars in the last 30 years, not to mention the blind eyes we've turned to wars other countries have waged that we had indirect involvement in. What you said about the soft power of media earlier, I think that has also been part of the war games at times. Just because it's not always so obviously state-run hasn't meant it's a passive, objective force for good has it. Sometimes it feels like shit stirring, although this is probably most noticeable these days on social media, and on the front pages of certain tabloids. Newspapers/news channels/Meta and big money-driven agendas, all that. As we get further into the 21st century it's starting to look a bit like a bigger mouthful than we can chew, and far more unpredictable than we're led to believe in terms of geopolitics.

Don't really know what I'm trying to say, sorry 😳 but your posts/thinking connects with me, so thank you.

ScrollingLeaves · 29/03/2022 11:13

“baroqueandblue

Really appreciate the posts on the psychology of war/violence too, thank you to those who are writing about that.“

Is anyone here from a military background?
If so, given the U K stands against war crimes, do you know what training our armed forces are given to avoid becoming war criminals themselves?

And, also, is there adequate psychological help after a war for them if they have done the unforgivable, and cannot ever forgive themselves?

Or is it all just not ever really spoken about?

(It is odd for example that so many rapes are committed on women armed forces by their own side when they aren’t even at war. But maybe that is a different issue - nothing to do with violence under stress - but to do with who some of the recruits are.)

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