Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Original poster

Worst case scenario for GB with the war in Ukraine & cost of living?

67 replies

Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:18

What is the very worst outcome that could possibly happen?
We get drawn in to the war in an active role eg boots on the ground with NATO?
Inflation cripples everyone? People no longer can keep head above water?
For the wealthy no luxuries or holidays?
How bad could it possibly get?

OP posts:
Babyroobs · 14/03/2022 11:20

I guess there's a worry that the government just would not be able to afford the level of benefits they currently pay out. However they would likely make other cuts first.

purpleboy · 14/03/2022 11:21

Without wanting to sound alarmist, if NATO get involved then we're probably looking at a nuclear war, so all the above points are mute because the country will be destroyed.
I don't think it will come to that because no one not even the dickhead wants that.

But I think we're going to be feeling the effects of this for a while to come yet.

Original poster
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:22

But for the normal working & middle class who are not on benefits how bad will or could it possibly get?

OP posts:
Original poster
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:23

@purpleboy

Without wanting to sound alarmist, if NATO get involved then we're probably looking at a nuclear war, so all the above points are mute because the country will be destroyed. I don't think it will come to that because no one not even the dickhead wants that.

But I think we're going to be feeling the effects of this for a while to come yet.

Not sounding alarmist at all just realistic.. I keep trying to instill in the dc the importance of a good education as in years to come the fight for well paying jobs is going to be cutthroat...
OP posts:
Keepitonthedownlow · 14/03/2022 11:25

The key is probably mortgage interest rates - having a roof over your head is dependent on these rates being manageable I suppose?

Original poster
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:27

And now covid is starting to take off again... At least here in Ireland, hospitalizations are up 60% on a fortnight ago & schools are closing classes...

OP posts:
PuzzledObserver · 14/03/2022 11:29

@Feelingthepinch22

But for the normal working & middle class who are not on benefits how bad will or could it possibly get?
How bad could it get - civilisations have collapsed before now, we are not so magically charmed that it couldn’t possibly happen to us.

How bad will it get - nobody knows. Personally I think total apocalypse is vanishingly unlikely but a prolonged and painful recession is all but certain.

I could be wrong on either one of those.

DespairingHomeowner · 14/03/2022 11:35

Worst realistic cases I think:

  • some neighbouring countries get dragged in (think Putin is trying to drag Poland in based on yesterday’s activity)
  • realistically, this drags on for several years like Chechnya conflict, impacting energy/food prices, meanwhile UK & other NATO countries try to absorb more and more refugees (obviously I feel for everyone displaced/suffering through this conflict)
  • food price inflation: who knows, but 10-20% increase over a period of a year doesn’t seem wildly unrealistic to me, was anticipated to be 5% for 2022 in Dec last year

Impact: if food is a big part of your budget, a lot. We actually spend far less of our income on food now vs 70s/80s. I don’t think we will see net food shortages but we are likely to see lots of people making changes

  • first where they shop
  • then what they eat (more scratch cooking, cheaper items, less meat, and definitely a lot less food waste)
DespairingHomeowner · 14/03/2022 11:36

Agree that unfortunately see a recession ahead, and likely worse than 2008 Sad

Original poster
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:36

It's the uncertainty of everything that's frightening... 4 weeks ago millions of Ukrainians had very similar lifestyles to us & their lives changed overnight... Who knows how things will turn..

OP posts:
LizDoingTheCanCan · 14/03/2022 11:42

But for the normal working & middle class who are not on benefits how bad will or could it possibly get?

Benefit claimants are normal people. Thousands of people have no longer been able to keep their heads above water for many years.

It might be that your anxiety, but you're coming across as pretty ignorant.

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 14/03/2022 11:45

It’s so depressing. 2008/9 was awful for us. Then covid. Now inflation and the devastating war. I read a few articles by an economic commentator Fred Harrison, previously predicting the next recession in 2026, a nice few years away. (He’s accurately predicted previous recessions) Unfortunately this will now be bought forward, to imminently, I can’t see anyway out.

Can’t even think about a nuclear war,

Original poster
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:45

I'm not saying they're not normal. Should I rephrase as "taypayers" or "non benefit recipients"?

OP posts:
LizDoingTheCanCan · 14/03/2022 11:47

@Feelingthepinch22

I'm not saying they're not normal. Should I rephrase as "taypayers" or "non benefit recipients"?
No, you should include them. They're not some underclass that don't matter.

You know benefit recipients pay tax too, often at a far higher proportion of their income?

Original poster
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 11:47

@ThroughThickAndThin01

It’s so depressing. 2008/9 was awful for us. Then covid. Now inflation and the devastating war. I read a few articles by an economic commentator Fred Harrison, previously predicting the next recession in 2026, a nice few years away. (He’s accurately predicted previous recessions) Unfortunately this will now be bought forward, to imminently, I can’t see anyway out.

Can’t even think about a nuclear war,

It's soul destroying... We feel now we're literally living to pay bills & eat... Hairdressers, clothes shopping, eating out is all a thing of the past... Bills are priority & then the dc's activities... That's it!
OP posts:
BeyondMyWits · 14/03/2022 11:48

Generally... inflation, increased prices, shortages of key items.... flour... plant based cooking oils, increased interest rates, cripling mortgages, repossession.

Apart from that the ever present threat of nuclear war.

Cheery...

carefullycourageous · 14/03/2022 11:50

@Feelingthepinch22

I'm not saying they're not normal. Should I rephrase as "taypayers" or "non benefit recipients"?
Why are you only concerned with how it will impact 'non-benefit recipients'?

Your separation of people into sub-groups is making it hard for me to respond to you calmly, as I feel offended.

Some of my best friends are on benefits!!

In terms of worst case scenario, all these are now on the table:

  • nuclear war
  • non-nuclear wider war involving NATO
  • ongoing war in Ukraine
  • patched up resolution/ceasefire

Recession in UK will follow usual pattern - less money, more crime, more misery of all types.

carefullycourageous · 14/03/2022 11:51

Agree with @LizDoingTheCanCan - benefit claimants are taxpayers

Jisforjelly · 14/03/2022 12:01

I don’t personally think that nuclear war is on the cards at all. Maybe I’m being naive but there are no winners in that scenario and I don’t think Putin wants to rule over a big hole in the ground. Even if he was in his bunker he’d come out to nothing.

FrancescaContini · 14/03/2022 12:03

@LizDoingTheCanCan

But for the normal working & middle class who are not on benefits how bad will or could it possibly get?

Benefit claimants are normal people. Thousands of people have no longer been able to keep their heads above water for many years.

It might be that your anxiety, but you're coming across as pretty ignorant.

Agree. Very ignorant. What is a “normal working person “?
FrancescaContini · 14/03/2022 12:05

And if you receive child benefit, you are also “on benefits”.

Frenchfancy · 14/03/2022 12:05

Worst case scenario is nuclear war. If Putin is backed into a corner and has no way out then what would he have to loose?

There is no point talking about worst case scenario if you rule out the ultimate one.

ChoiceMummy · 14/03/2022 12:06

@Feelingthepinch22

I'm not saying they're not normal. Should I rephrase as "taypayers" or "non benefit recipients"?
You do realise that many tax payers are also benefit recipients? That could child benefit, universal credit, tax credits, council tax reduction, PIP, DLA, ESAetc.

Not all benefits recipients don't work, if that's the distinction you're trying to define.

Many of those working barely float because of the benefits above, so many of these working families will be financially hit even harder than those who work and are not benefits recipients also.

Sux2buthen · 14/03/2022 12:12

@Feelingthepinch22

But for the normal working & middle class who are not on benefits how bad will or could it possibly get?
I've typed out the start of maybe three replies and I'm still too confused to choose which of the responses would fit the disgusting implications of this sentence
Flawedperfection · 14/03/2022 12:15

@Feelingthepinch22 is referring to people who are employed- work- and pay tax on their earnings. I’m mystified as to why people are so offended by this.

How about answering her original question? The threat of a recession/nuclear war is slightly more important than nitpicking about the distinction between working people and benefits claimants!