Worst case scenario for GB with the war in Ukraine & cost of living?

[Feelingthepinch22]

What is the very worst outcome that could possibly happen?
We get drawn in to the war in an active role eg boots on the ground with NATO?
Inflation cripples everyone? People no longer can keep head above water?
For the wealthy no luxuries or holidays?
How bad could it possibly get?

To be fair to op, I think she said that because the first response was about how benefits may be cut and I think she was trying to ask about what (other) effects may be. It was just unfortunately worded...

[quote DespairingHomeowner]@Thisismynamenow: thanks for the comments re 80s inflation

I was a v small child, remember lots of power cuts & also my parents talking about 17% mortgage rate

Can I ask how you think this will be for ‘typical families’ (so all of us who are not in an elite privileged position), & what the way out might be. I have no idea beyond being a bit that the roaring 20s I was hoping for are not happening…[/quote]
If its like the 80s,repossession, debts galore, lots of evictions, alcohol and dv abuse, stress and poor mh galore. Parents feeding their children and going without themselves. Medication being too expensive so increasing ill health. Job losses. Suicide increases.

Anyone who remembers knows that prospect isn't pretty.

Thanks to the op's for wording it better, I did work it clumsily what I meant really was those of us who are living somewhat comfortably but not exactly rolling in it... I'm sure there is another sector of society who will be completely unaffected & can easily weather the inflationbut that's another conversation...

And is a recession inevitable, do you all think?

@Bellalastrasse: yes unfortunately I think

I think there will absolutely be a recession, everything is heading downhill.... It was bad enough before the war started...

What you detail here was a normal childhood for those growing up in 1970s Britain. The “normal” expectations of many in their 20s now strike me as very privileged/spoilt.

But times have changed. It would be like telling young people in the 1979s that they should go back to the lifestyle people had in the 1920s.

1970s

Big leaps from 1920s to 1070s- not sure the key changes in living conditions are the same from 70s to now. Most of the progress has been about leisure time/spending and building quality on top of basics but the 30s/40s/50s and 60s had real poverty, deprivation, war! and illness. Not saying it was great in the 70s for w/c at all but I don’t think it is comparable.

My parents were both born in the 1930’s. Before antibiotics. Before vaccinations against diphtheria, polio, measles….. childhood deaths from infectious diseases were not uncommon.

The difference from the 1930’s to the 1970’s is of a different kind to the difference from the 1970’s to 2020’s. The first was about universal access to healthcare, and a great improvement in life expectancy. The second primarily about greater comfort, choice and leisure.

I’m not saying I want to go back to the 1970’s…. the clothes, the hairstyles! Just suggesting that there are a lot of elements of modern life which cost a huge amount of money and are much less important than we tend to think they are.

@PuzzledObserver

Yes, I agree. Poverty is relative but pre 60s is on an entirely different scale

Agree it will be like the 1980’s.

Inflation and a recession will mean people having their homes repossessed especially when interest rates rise which have been kept artificially low for years.

Also think we will have the possibility of 1970’s style power cuts if the war in Ukraine continues.

Even without a nuclear war we are returning to a new Cold War era unless the Russians themselves depose Putin.

I started cutting back about 3 weeks ago & glad I did.. Friends of mine still very much in denial & they would be in a similar financial position to us

@PuzzledObserver - yes but one huge change since the 70s is that access to the internet, and to mobile phones, is pretty much a prerequisite to participation in society, which is why I think people citing mobile phone contracts and internet as luxuries are being disingenuous. Obviously you don't need the world's fanciest phone but it reminds me of when people talk about "flat screen TVs" as a luxury when in 2022 you'd be hard pressed to find any other type.

@pucelleauxblanchesmains I didn’t describe internet access is a luxury - but if push comes to shove you can get a SIM only deal with vast amounts of data for £10 a month or less. So when someone comes to the end of their broadband and mobile contracts, they have scope to save a fair bit and still have internet access.

We're not going to get mass re-possessions this time round. Last time the banks had insurance which paid out when people de-faulted, so they recouped their loans. Then they just sold the properties at auction at knock-down prices as they'd already recouped their money. Those insurances are no longer allowed - so the lenders will not want to flood the market with re-possessions this time as they'll not get their money back. Instead they'll hold onto the properties until things improve and then aim to recoup their money.

I think everyone will be feeling the pinch... Talking to a very affluent school mum at drop off earlier (she's an accountant, her DH is a banker), she admired my hair, I told her I had started colouring it myself & let it dry naturally this morning... She said she was in the process of growing out her balyage & will start doing her own colour as she just can't justify the costs of going to a salon anymore (they have 2 older dc in private school) It will affect everyone..