Worst case scenario for GB with the war in Ukraine & cost of living?

[Feelingthepinch22]

What is the very worst outcome that could possibly happen?
We get drawn in to the war in an active role eg boots on the ground with NATO?
Inflation cripples everyone? People no longer can keep head above water?
For the wealthy no luxuries or holidays?
How bad could it possibly get?

We're in for a very tough 5 years or so I think. But we lived through the 70s, with blackouts and inflation up to 20%, and are still here.

Exactly as my post said working or middle class.. Families with one or 2 working members who work to pay their bills.. Obviously many recieve benefits myself included!!
I'm talking about working families, couples & individuals!

@DespairingHomeowner

Agree that unfortunately see a recession ahead, and likely worse than 2008

The recession will be very different to the 2008 recession. that was because the banking system pretty much collapsed - it was devastating but was rectified differently. I think the recession in the 80's is much more close to what we will experience as that was caused by increasing inflation and changes in monetary policy.

@Flawedperfection thank you!
I thought my opening post covered this.. I said normal working & middle class people ie a very very large segment of the population who go out to work to cover their expenses & bills!
Maybe the people who are offended can start a thread about the segment of society they fit into themselves & how the future recession will affect them...

Who knows exactly how this pain out, my opinion (for what it’s worth?) even if Russia dropped a nuclear bomb or released chemicals on Urakine, I don’t think NATO would intervene. So I don’t think nuclear war is likely.

I am worried about the UK government milking this tragedy as a way to ensure living standards go unchecked and more and more people fall in to poverty.

Be wary of Boris asking us to ‘make sacrifices due to the Ukraine situation’ most of our concerns ag home rising food, energy, fuel, housing prices with fall wages were massive issue before Russia invaded Ukraine

@Blossombo

Who knows exactly how this pain out, my opinion (for what it’s worth?) even if Russia dropped a nuclear bomb or released chemicals on Urakine, I don’t think NATO would intervene. So I don’t think nuclear war is likely.

I am worried about the UK government milking this tragedy as a way to ensure living standards go unchecked and more and more people fall in to poverty.

Be wary of Boris asking us to ‘make sacrifices due to the Ukraine situation’ most of our concerns ag home rising food, energy, fuel, housing prices with fall wages were massive issue before Russia invaded Ukraine

Crikey, sorry for the typos!

Many of the cost of living issues are not to do with the Ukraine war. The huge increase in energy prices was already set for April before the war broke out. Food prices have been consistently rising and inflation was already increasing rapidly.

The war has exacerbated energy costs but let's not make the mistake of blaming all price increases on the war. That just alleviates the government of any responsibility to help those in poverty with the excuse of war.

@Blossombo agreed. They will use the war in Ukraine as an excuse and those at the top will not be affected at all.

I cannot believe furlough was paid for 2 years and so many big companies milked it and actually made a profit. They should be paying it back.

@Thisismynamenow: thanks for the comments re 80s inflation

I was a v small child, remember lots of power cuts & also my parents talking about 17% mortgage rate

Can I ask how you think this will be for ‘typical families’ (so all of us who are not in an elite privileged position), & what the way out might be. I have no idea beyond being a bit that the roaring 20s I was hoping for are not happening…

@Feelingthepinch22

It's the uncertainty of everything that's frightening... 4 weeks ago millions of Ukrainians had very similar lifestyles to us & their lives changed overnight... Who knows how things will turn..

Always remember that ‘civilised society’ is only ever 3 days away from collapse. That is how long it takes for the food to run out.

Plan accordingly.

Sadly there are no good endings.
Best case is that many will be plunged into poverty/ homelessness.
Worst case is the unthinkable.

@Feelingthepinch22

But for the normal working & middle class who are not on benefits how bad will or could it possibly get?

A huge percentage of people who claim benefits are in full time work. Housing benefit top ups especially as rents outstrip normal wages in some areas.

Food prices will go up a lot as Russia is limiting its export of fertiliser materials, not sure how much in the UK but in my country they are saying food prices could nearly double, and there will be less meat as there won't be enough fertiliser to grow crops for feeding animals as much as before.

@raspberryjamchicken

Many of the cost of living issues are not to do with the Ukraine war. The huge increase in energy prices was already set for April before the war broke out. Food prices have been consistently rising and inflation was already increasing rapidly.

The war has exacerbated energy costs but let's not make the mistake of blaming all price increases on the war. That just alleviates the government of any responsibility to help those in poverty with the excuse of war.

Yes.

War is just the convenient scapegoat.

Like others here I am old enough to remember the 1970s, 3 day weeks, power cuts, eating by candle light, we had parafin heaters. When I bought my first house in the early 1990s the interest rate was 19%

Most people will manage - its surprising what you can do without when you have to. People will eat seasonally and cheaply. When I was a child you had strawberries in June and satsumas at Christmas, salads in the summer, root veg in the winter. Egg and chips was a frequent meal, as was Scouse - a stew with the cheapest cuts of meat, carrot and potatoes.
There was no such thing as children's fashion, you wore hand me downs. I didn't do any 'activities' - didn't exist where I lived
As an ordinary working class family we managed - my mum worked as a dinner lady for a bit of extra cash.

Some people will struggle. My father was a milkman, on his round was a notorious housing estate called the Piggeries. I used to go with him on Friday to collect the milk money. My overwhelming memory was the smell, truly the stench of poverty. Overpowering smell of stale chip fat, unwashed people and clothes, housing falling apart.

So I suppose that's how bad it could get, I remember thinking I was lucky I didn't live there.

It's terrible isn't it... As a society we've come so much from those days... As a family on a very average household income we've become accustomed to so much that's the norm for many eg Netflix, Amazon prime, countless kids activities, shopping trips, 2 holidays a year.. Obviously easy to cut out but in the long term this type of consumerism was never going to be viable for most....

This is interesting from BBC news, food manufacturers talking about 15% increases in prices this year: they would be over not underplaying as context is asking for help

So bad but not 50% bad I suppose

Cost of living: Food boss says prices could rise by up to 15%
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60734384

It's still a fair chunk but could be worse

I remember the power cuts and 3 day week, and was young enough to find it exciting to have to light candles, rather than worrying. I also remember the drought of 1976 when the water was turned off for most of the day (we filled the bath for drinking/cooking water) and toilets in school had to be flushed with buckets.

I grew up eating food made from scratch and wearing hand-me-downs - not because we were poor (my father was a GP!) but because that was normal life, unless you were very wealthy. Processed food had barely been invented - Vesta Curry, anyone? “Activities” were primarily provided by school and consisted of sport, or Brownies/Guides.

There were three channels on the TV, ours was black and white until I was about 10, we didn’t have central heating until I was 12 and some of my school friends didn’t have a phone at home, never mind a mobile.

And yet we survived…..

The challenge with coping with the recession that’s looming is that over the past 2 generations we have largely lost the skills of cooking from scratch and knowledge of seasonal food, which would go a long way to cutting food bills. Expectations are so much higher - can you imagine the squeals if mobile contracts and NetFlix are cancelled, yet in previous eras they were unknown. We read books and played games. A ‘takeaway’ was fish and chips as a treat, maybe once a month or even less. The idea that you would spend £5.50 on a coffee and a muffin every day was ludicrous - you might have a cup of tea in a cafe once in a while, but basically eating out was for special occasions and holidays. Again - not poor, just ordinary life for a vast swathe of society.

And then there is the fact that people borrow so much more - housing costs are higher relative to income (I think), but people also have lease deals and personal loans and credit card debt, which barely existed when I was growing up. So, despite the standard of living being much higher than when I started out, we are also much more vulnerable to a sudden loss in income, or inflation.

The benefits/taxpayer thing is a red herring. Some people have more income than others, some people have more savings than others. Those who have more of either are better placed to cope with an economic shock than those without. ‘Twas ever thus.

It's just the whole uncertainty around everything that worries me... I'm trying to prepare but it's so hard to predict how hard the times will be

@PuzzledObserver

I remember the power cuts and 3 day week, and was young enough to find it exciting to have to light candles, rather than worrying. I also remember the drought of 1976 when the water was turned off for most of the day (we filled the bath for drinking/cooking water) and toilets in school had to be flushed with buckets.

I grew up eating food made from scratch and wearing hand-me-downs - not because we were poor (my father was a GP!) but because that was normal life, unless you were very wealthy. Processed food had barely been invented - Vesta Curry, anyone? “Activities” were primarily provided by school and consisted of sport, or Brownies/Guides.

There were three channels on the TV, ours was black and white until I was about 10, we didn’t have central heating until I was 12 and some of my school friends didn’t have a phone at home, never mind a mobile.

And yet we survived…..

The challenge with coping with the recession that’s looming is that over the past 2 generations we have largely lost the skills of cooking from scratch and knowledge of seasonal food, which would go a long way to cutting food bills. Expectations are so much higher - can you imagine the squeals if mobile contracts and NetFlix are cancelled, yet in previous eras they were unknown. We read books and played games. A ‘takeaway’ was fish and chips as a treat, maybe once a month or even less. The idea that you would spend £5.50 on a coffee and a muffin every day was ludicrous - you might have a cup of tea in a cafe once in a while, but basically eating out was for special occasions and holidays. Again - not poor, just ordinary life for a vast swathe of society.

And then there is the fact that people borrow so much more - housing costs are higher relative to income (I think), but people also have lease deals and personal loans and credit card debt, which barely existed when I was growing up. So, despite the standard of living being much higher than when I started out, we are also much more vulnerable to a sudden loss in income, or inflation.

The benefits/taxpayer thing is a red herring. Some people have more income than others, some people have more savings than others. Those who have more of either are better placed to cope with an economic shock than those without. ‘Twas ever thus.

Agree with all of this. What you detail here was a normal childhood for those growing up in 1970s Britain. The “normal” expectations of many in their 20s now strike me as very privileged/spoilt. Psychologically I think those of us in our 50s and above can perhaps cope better with any looming recession/cost of living squeeze, having grown up with the strikes under Thatcher, the recession in the early 90s and the economic crisis of 2008.

I’m thinking rationing.

Lots of wheat cones from Russia/Ukraine. There will be world wide shortages

Daily mail was screaming about rationing Diesel yesterday.

I totally agree, I'm nearly 40 & remember the 80s in the Republic very well, it's was bleak, lots of immigration not many luxuries but it was the life I was born into & the norm for everyone... I think we'll be OK with cutting back however my dc are well used to cinema trips, smyths regularly, smiggle etc but we'll be OK..

Rations sound like a realistic possibility

We are on benefits. We both worked from age 15 and 16 and paid tax and NI. At age 57 and 52 we claimed benefits for the first time ever, due to my husband's out of the blue psychotic breakdown. He cannot be left alone, so I had to give up my job too. 20 years previous to this we adopted a child via our local council. We adore him and he's our son but we must have saved the council a fortune in fostering costs. I think we have done our bit for society and do not feel one bit of guilt for claiming benefits. I was horrified that the Op did not view us as being "normal people". Thank you to the posters who pulled the Op up on it.

@MRSAHILL

We are on benefits. We both worked from age 15 and 16 and paid tax and NI. At age 57 and 52 we claimed benefits for the first time ever, due to my husband's out of the blue psychotic breakdown. He cannot be left alone, so I had to give up my job too. 20 years previous to this we adopted a child via our local council. We adore him and he's our son but we must have saved the council a fortune in fostering costs. I think we have done our bit for society and do not feel one bit of guilt for claiming benefits. I was horrified that the Op did not view us as being "normal people". Thank you to the posters who pulled the Op up on it.

To be fair I think the OP just worded this clumsily, the OP has said they also claim benefits.

I don’t think we should lose sight of the main point and that’s how this situation is going to affect the majority of us.

I get benefits, I also work part time, we have a disabled child whose future now scares me as he will need wrap around support in adulthood.