Does anyone have any guidance about what we should be prepping?
MN clearly does, because when I clicked on this thread I got a video with a mum and two kids planting seeds.
Which made me smirk.
Anyway, I disgress....
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Prepping? Ok you REALLY want to go there?
Well I would suggest that the first thing we might want to think about is how dependent on the internet and infrastructure like energy supplies.
Wait what? You mean there is a threat because we aren't self sufficient for energy and we know that cyber attacks on major infrustructure are a thing?
We don't have to have formally declared war for this to ALREADY be a realistic threat to us RIGHT NOW. All our hospitals, banks, air traffic control? Well they will be the first thing on the list of our potential weaknesses. What happens if we put in the very strictest of sanctions? Do you think cyberattacks won't happen? I hope back up plans are well drilled with staff. I hope they can manage with the extra time and workload this creates. How are your first aid skills?
How are you intending to get money out of your online only bank to pay for anything? Where is your nearest bank branch? How are you intending to get there when there's a big fuel shortage on? Come to think of it, what's Tesco's strategy for managing its distribution network once its main computer system is compromised? Where are you going to be able to get key tools to grow things, when Amazon's fucked and your phone doesn't work? How are you going to google 'how to survive offgrid'? How is the government going to communicate with you, if you can't afford to power the tv?
In terms of escape, as someone has said, where are you going escape to? If the UK is getting physically attacked by bombs, there will be no where else to go because we will be in a world war.
Besides that. Go to the countryside? And with our long supply chains disrupted, exactly how do you propose you are going to eat and drink? Remember, Tesco is now compromised and is struggling to work out how much pasta it needs to send to each of its stores cos it can't do a stock update. Do you think it will be prioritising a corner shop in Buxton over a Extra Store in London?
In terms of the UK’s self sufficency in all food types in 2009, the figure was 59% which is down from a high of 78% in 1984
I think the current most up to date figure is worse.
Think about this. We import 40% of all our food. The first problems with a modern war, aren't going to whether a bomb is going to drop on your house. It will be felt in your pockets, it will be felt in the supermarkets empty shelves - even without panic buying and rationing. The cost of processing food will skyrocket. Your kid only eats a particular brand of potato waffle and nothing else? Well tough shit because the manufacturer can't import enough of a particular starch they contain because world trading routes are blocked. You best start hoping your kid takes a shine to turnips and doesn't scream when you fail to give them chocolate or orange segments.
Start growing now? Crack on. Its dead easy isn't it? How do you intend to google what to do? How do you deal with this pest you have? Can you make meals out of very limited seasonal veg? Enough to feed your family, without wasting anything? When you don't have much fuel/power? You need to fit this in around hand washing all your clothes and now walking / cyclying to work cos you can't get hold of petrol or its so expensive. You've heard of the hungry gap right? You know much about pests? You'll be preserving all this for winter how exactly? Remember power is now scare and even more extortionate. Rolling blackouts are in progress to manage this. Which isn't great for your stockpile you've got stuffed in the freezer either.
Back up generator? Well how are you planning to power it? With none existent diesel? Solar power? Great, now where are you going to get it from? Can't use online. Plus someone's seen there is now a market for them, and is buying them all up so they can scalp you for it in a few weeks time.
Everyone starts panicking so thefts and lootings start breaking out. People have no money remember, cos they can't get it out the ATM because Lloyds, Barclays and Santander have their systems down. And they had already put limits on your cashwithdrawals in the two days before anyway, when TSB went down, amongst a run on the other banks to get out cash quick. Best improve your security then, get one of those Ring Security systems so you can clearly see the person all in black and masked up. Cos of course alarms and cameras will physically stop hungry and desparate people and will be of assistance to the police who are dealing with thousands of similar cases.
Still think you can prep realistically?
Yes this is dramatic. Is it overly dramatic? Just how quickly could this happen?
There is a reality here that the UK is perhaps less prepared for a scenario like this, than other 'less developed' countries. Our ability to cope with a shock to just one of these issues, never mind multiple ones is much shaker than we would like to admit. The pandemic has shown up a number of these strategic weaknesses particularly starkly.
We are already facing a cost of living crunch - the outbreak of war confined entirely within Ukraine, is going to test many. That alone places our government with a crisis and a high risk of civil unrest being a risk.
No one has to drop a single bomb over the UK for there to now be a MAJOR issue. The UK does not have to be at war with Russia for there to now be lots of unfolding problems than threaten day to day functioning of modern British Life.
Prepping? How are large parts of the population going to manage that when they can't afford to even keep a roof over their head, food on the table and cook the food? Yeah go out and buy a load of seeds and 'dig for britain' without so much as a trowel or anywhere to put the plant.
Still think that prepping is going to help? How many people really have the skills and knowledge (or ways to access that knowledge if the internet is down)? We should have prepped for this a long time ago. Like covid we now find ourselves at the start of a crisis where long term contigency planning by government has been piss poor. That will affect what happens next and how well people fair. As individuals we have limited ability to cushion ourselves against such a failure of defensive planning and strategy. Thats going to have consequences. Human ones. To Brits.
Prepping in this scenario is like pissing in the wind. It might buy you a few more days. Weeks if you are lucky. Before you find yourself in the same mess as everyone else around you.
Why does Putin think he can get away with invading Ukraine? Think about it. The West are afraid of this esculating. He doesn't need nukes to defend himself as a result. Not really. He just needs Westerners to fear it and for them to be already struggling with crippling inflation. He doesn't even really need to carry out large scale cyberattacks. One or two well placed ones which are plausably deniable will do a hell of a lot of damage. More than they should.
Prepping? If you are familiar with the term hybrid warfare, you may also be aware of those who have suggested that we've been in a covert war with Russia for some time already. There's been much suggestion of proxy warfare going on between the US and Russia for decades. Just because you can't see the battlefield and the uniforms lined up against each other, doesn't mean the war isn't in progress. Its just invisible. Putin was able to plan this over decades, and many have suggested that he's thought of the long game rather than smaller more PR friendly 'victories' the west have claimed.
Have we already been losing the war for a while? And maybe the penny has just dropped.
Will I be prepping? I think I'm probably going to laugh rather coldly at the suggestion.