Sorry if this has been asked but Russia invading

[ItsDisneyBitch]

Can someone who knows a bit more than me explain in layman’s terms what is going on.

I see all these sanctions etc and now a cyber attack on Ukraine. What will happen next, why is this suddenly happening and what is the knock on effect.

I ask for selfish reasons dd who has asd and add fixates on the apocalypse. She is still wearing her face mask and won’t really leave the house. I need to try and talk her down off this next ledge now how can I comfort her??

Nothing helpful to explain but I can sympathise with the child. Ds1 (16) was convinced he'd die if he got Covid. He finally did a couple of months ago and was fine. Now he's convinced there will be a world war which will mean GCSEs are cancelled! (That's the bright side). I explained to him that whatever happens over there is very unlikely to affect us although it's sad for them. I explained about wars currently going on in the Middle East and even in Europe recently (Bosnia) and how things carried on as normal for us.

The potential for the war to reach you is there. Russia is a mean old bear and biden was wrong to poke it

This is a good summary:

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/the-ukraine-russia-crisis-explained-a-complete-visual-guide

Your poor DD.

The reality is that for the UK, the consequences will almost certainly be no more than economic.

Putin has views that the split up of the USSR into independent states away from the old 'Russian Empire' should not have been allowed after the fault of communism and self-determination in eg Ukraine, Georgia should not have been allowed.

In addition, he sees the 'Europeanisation/Westernisation' of Ukraine (closer ties with EU countries, desire to join NATO) as a direct threat to Russia.

Things could now get nasty for Ukraine, and cold/expensive for Europe.

She had seen the Shaun of the dead meme somewhere that shows Winchester is just outside the impact blast if Russia drilled a nuke on London.

I’ve explained that it’s a joke, but where we live is in the blast zone. So she is convinced this means nuclear war.

I remember being bloody petrified of it when I was younger so completely understand her fears.

Ah the poor love. Is it worth explaining to her about Mutually Assured Destruction - the idea that no nuclear power will ever deploy weapons against another, because retaliation would be assured?

I mean, yes, Ukraine is probably kicking itself for giving up its nuclear weapons in negotiations with Russia.

Putin is the one out of all the world leaders that I’m fairly sure doesn’t give a fuck about MAD. He’s just about crackers and egotistical enough to not care as long as he’s the one who shoots first.

OP - I have ASD and got obsessed with nuclear war as a teen, trying to figure out how to survive one. My Dad dealt with it by telling me that he’d rather be in the blast zone than not, because post nuclear survival would be a daily horror show.

I mean, I was a very odd child but it did calm me

Putin is the one out of all the world leaders that I’m fairly sure doesn’t give a fuck about MAD. He’s just about crackers and egotistical enough to not care as long as he’s the one who shoots first.

I don't agree. I think he's egotistical as fuck, but I don't think he's crazy. He has spent pretty much the last 30 years working out just how far he can push the West, not by making big crazy calls but by a carefully plotted war of attrition against things that the West doesn't quite care enough about to retaliate.

He has an end game in mind, and that doesn't involve antagonising the West into a full on nuclear (or even conventional) shitfight.

Fucking social media is on fire with nuclear middle maps.

Today I’ve had to stop my child taking an overdose because her anxiety is so out of control. I really can’t talk her down now.

Why is she on social media?

Her friends have been sending her TikToks.

Your poor daughter I really sympathise

Poor girl!
Can you explain he is likely to go for cyber attacks? How much does she really understand?

Tell her to get off the internet and stop watching the hysterical doom-mongering on the BBC.

The only thing for it OSS to take her phone off her. I know that subs extended but I've got a 13 you myself and I know exactly what this is like. Social media encourages them to catastrophise and will only escalate her Behaviour.