Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Original poster

How long is it likely to last, realistically (petrol supply issues)

49 replies

PlinkPlankPlunk · 27/09/2021 12:27

Ok I do know no one has a crystal ball! But are there any logical thoughts as to how long this petrol supply scenario is likely to go on for? Weeks? Months?

I am not sure what the reliable sources of opinion are - can anyone point me to anything? Trying to plan ahead for minimal use of the car etc and work out what our priorities would be…

OP posts:
CrumpleHornedSnowcack · 27/09/2021 12:31

hoping it will be sorted by the end of the week once people all have full tanks & stop being idiots

HotPenguin · 27/09/2021 12:40

Logically it should ease because once everyone has filled up there's no extra capacity for them to take more, so demand will drop off. On the other hand, it's very unusual for the majority of the petrol stations all to run out of fuel at the same time, and I can imagine there will be logistical problems getting them all refilled.

TellerTuesday · 27/09/2021 12:41

I agree with PP and had this conversation with friends this morning. My theory is that now everyone has filled their tanks (plenty of whom probably won't be going anywhere to use it) it should go back to normal as really once your tank is full then you can't exactly buy an infinite amount until you use some of it.

BIoodyStupidJohnson · 27/09/2021 12:42

I honestly have no idea, but I'm planning for the eventuality of a couple of weeks. If it goes on for any longer than that I'll be surprised. But then I've been unpleasantly surprised before so what do I know...

ChimChimeny · 27/09/2021 12:45

Are stations running out just because of the increased demand or is it also the lack of drivers to restock the stations?

If it's just increased demand then hopefully a few days, if it's drivers depends on when/if the army help (heard on the news that'll be the end of the week) or the temp visas for non-uk drivers (no idea on that one)

isitjustlockdown · 27/09/2021 12:49

@ChimChimeny

Are stations running out just because of the increased demand or is it also the lack of drivers to restock the stations?

If it's just increased demand then hopefully a few days, if it's drivers depends on when/if the army help (heard on the news that'll be the end of the week) or the temp visas for non-uk drivers (no idea on that one)

We have the same number of tanker drivers as we did last week.

However 4-5 times the amount of fuel is being sold.

It's the sudden surge in demand that is making stations go dry. Once the public calms, normal services can resume.

The government need to pull their finger out and do a gesture of some sort to calm the public.

Original poster
PlinkPlankPlunk · 27/09/2021 12:57

Hmm, thanks all, for your thoughts.

I agree that logically the surge will come to a natural halt at some point - well presumably more people may keep their tanks fuller rather than emptier, but even so… I wish we could predict when that would be! I can ditch a lot of “non-essential” things, but need to think about rearranging some work stuff towards the end of this week.

OP posts:
Zeal · 27/09/2021 12:59

In September 2000 it took about 7 days to correct itself. I coasted into Heathrow airport on fumes and by the time I returned 14 days later everyone here had forgotten about it. Not a word on the news.

TartanJumper · 27/09/2021 13:03

Once enough people have filled up and demand goes down.
I'd give it 2 weeks, tops.

Bunnycat101 · 27/09/2021 13:10

For it to stop I’d guess people need to be confident they can go down to a quarter tank and be able to fill up. I’d guess a lot of people will be starting to get a bit anxious at half a tank whereas normally they’d be fine. 3 of my local stations have no petrol at all, if the motorway stations are kept open that will help confidence in the next few days but supply needs to normalise at the local ones too

BrilloPaddy · 27/09/2021 13:16

They just need to implement a minimum spend instead of a maximum. Or have someone stood checking fuel guages........

It should be OK in the next few days.

saywhatwhatnow · 27/09/2021 13:22

I was just asking DH the same question. This thread has made me feel a bit better as he's quite the pessimist Confused

InTheNightWeWillWish · 27/09/2021 13:34

Unless people are doing doughnuts in Tesco car park, then there’s only a finite amount the people can take. I think the people who are panicking when they have 3/4 of a tank aren’t going to be doing doughnuts in Tesco car park, so they’ll probably still have a full tank in a couple of weeks.

The issue is that people’s comfort level will be raised. So someone who would usually fill up when it’s 1/8 of a tank will probably fill up at 1/4 of a tank. Someone who fills up at 1/4 tank will probably fill up shortly after they drop below 1/2 tank. However, there is still only a limited amount they can take, whatever amount the tank holds. So you might have queues for a little bit longer but the supply of fuel should sort itself out relatively quickly.

GenderApostatemk2 · 27/09/2021 14:13

It was also pay day weekend for lots of people, so people running low at the end of the month adding to the surge.

It makes me very glad that I have a 1.0L very economical car that was filled up a week ago and will last until the end of October if I’m careful.

biscuitlicker · 27/09/2021 14:15

I think in about 2-3 days it should get better for the same reasons the pp have mentioned. Not a lot of people can afford to fill up the whole tank, the ones that have can't fill up anymore unless they top up which still won't impact the supply apart from causing unnecessary queues which they will give up doing by the end of the week. There isn't a shortage of fuel, the problem is everyone panicked and the demand in all in one go has impacted the supply at each petrol station. A week ago with the same amount of drivers it wasn't an issue and now it is because everyone has panicked at the start and by the time the people who genuinely needed can't find it now and the queues are full of drivers who genuinely are on red and people that are scared that their petrol is gone below 3/4.

lljkk · 27/09/2021 14:33

DH & I are trying to remember what happened the last 2x.
He says we didn't have a car so didn't pay attention.
I think my colleagues were quite affected so I was aware.

Panick buying plateaus on days 3-5 (we are on day 3) then suddenly stops about day 7. Is my prediction. When the greedy have stupidly full tanks & realise they don't like storing 10x 7 litre jerry cans at home. (isn't there a law how much or how long it can be stored for?)

So pretty much blown over by next Monday.

cleckheatonwanderer · 27/09/2021 14:40

Hopefully soon as my petrol light has been on for 2 days and I need to do a food shop soon. May go for a delivery actually.

ChimChimeny · 27/09/2021 15:14

It makes me very glad that I have a 1.0L

Me too! I filled up today because i was down to my last 40 miles (& always fill up so nothing different), that'll last me At least 6 weeks

Mulhollandmagoo · 27/09/2021 15:35

(isn't there a law how much or how long it can be stored for?)

Out of interest I checked my home insurance docs and there is something in there about storing petrol in a jerry can - and I'm not allowed! I can have it in a car or in a lawnmower/strimmer/hedge trimmer etc. but not in a Jerry can

Mulhollandmagoo · 27/09/2021 15:39

Also, in answer to your question, soon I hope! I got stuck in traffic twice this morning on the way to work trying to drive past petrol stations - I wasn't even buying any fuel.

I have just over 1/4 of a tank left and have had a few wobbles about filling up due to the constant media coverage, but I've had a word with myself, I'll get to work and back and anywhere essential for the rest of this week, and I wouldn't normally fill up at this point....lets hope that doesn't circle back and bite me on the arse!!

lanbro · 27/09/2021 15:47

I'm hoping to fill up on Wednesday at Costco, I've tried 2 local stations today but both completely out. I can manage til the end of the week but then I'm moving at the weekend so lots of short journeys planned. I'm not overly concerned, xh filled up the other day so can use his vehicle if need be.

Angliski · 27/09/2021 15:49

There is no shortage. There’s just a bunch of weirdly panicked people queuing for a squirt.

If they stopped doing that and starting behaving normally again, then we wouldn’t run out.

ChimChimeny · 27/09/2021 16:19

@lanbro

I'm hoping to fill up on Wednesday at Costco, I've tried 2 local stations today but both completely out. I can manage til the end of the week but then I'm moving at the weekend so lots of short journeys planned. I'm not overly concerned, xh filled up the other day so can use his vehicle if need be.
Our Costco was out of diesel yesterday & out of super unleaded today, was busy but not crazy & there was someone directing cars where to.go so it was relatively painless
ChimChimeny · 27/09/2021 16:20

@lanbro

I did call them before I set off though because I didn't want a wasted trip when I was already running low

Hippopotas · 27/09/2021 16:22

I’m hoping it will calm down in about a week. I’m on fumes so going to have to use DH car until I can fill up as he has 3/4 of a tank.