Is a 3rd wave possible (before the widespread vaccine)?

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It seems like there could be a 2-4 week period where deaths and cases rise (end of December to end of January)?

And do you think the government will do another lockdown where they shut non essential shops?

Possible, yes.

Mixing over Christmas may well bring a rise in numbers, and we've all seen how quickly it started to rise once community transmissions n starts up again.

I hope it isn't needed, but we'll need to keep an eye on the numbers from about Twelfth Night to towards the end of January. If there are signs of inexorable rise, then we might need lockdown 3 (or some fudge factor like a new tier 4)

It will be about 2-3 weeks after 27th December.

When the schools, universities, and workplaces go back in early January the spread will shoot up like it did in September and - unless the vaccine programme has gathered huge pace, which is unlikely - we'll end up needing s circuit break by the end of January to curb it. Hopefully it'll be third time lucky for government and they'll instigate it when the scientists first suggest it rather than several weeks later.

I doubt it.

I thought we were still in the second wave?

There aren't actually waves are there? The virus is present & the more we lockdown the more we suppress it, but it's just hanging about waiting for human contact.

And do you think the government will do another lockdown where they shut non essential shops?

I've literally just read this exact thread started a few hours ago, what's going on today, is the govrnment tying to gauge public opinion by starting threads?

Well given the big jump in cases today I would say absolutely. By the end of December when everyone has done their Christmas mixing we will be in a worrying situation. This will be just in time for schools to return and exacerbate the spread.

Yes. Why not?

There aren't actually waves are there? The virus is present & the more we lockdown the more we suppress it, but it's just hanging about waiting for human contact

The unspoken truth!

I think there will be another lockdown in mid/late January as inevitably numbers will rise again after mixed households over Xmas. It is going to take months and months to see the effect of any vaccine!

Well, looking at the pictures from Nottingham Christmas Market and the scenes outside Harrods. With students going home and refusing to be tested. All this before the free-for-all Christmas period, I would have thought Lockdown 3.0 was inevitable. Delighted to be proved wrong!

I also hope you are wrong, @rslsys, but sadly I don't think you will be. It is going to be six months at least before enough are vaccinated, and it is evident that the love of shopping and boozing overrides all sense. So we end up with covid AND stuffed up businesses.