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Original poster

Can some one explain to me what the situation with the A- levels is?

125 replies

AnaadiNitya · 14/08/2020 22:00

I’ve tried to have a look at other threads but it’s not very clear ( to me)

Are the exams results being downgraded due to what the school normally achieved? What the lock down anything to do with it?
If a pupil actually achieved a A would it actually be down graded anyway?

Sorry I know I sound dense on the matter.

OP posts:
Iggly · 14/08/2020 22:03

Well, go and have a read of plenty of news outlets. Mumsnet is not the only source! It comes across a bit lazy if you expect people to do your reading for you.

But in summary, the Tory government stripped out coursework from A levels with a heavier reliance on exams. So they came up with a stupid algorithm to predict grades from mock exams.
This algorithm has hidden biases and benefits private educated pupils hence the outcry.

Original poster
AnaadiNitya · 14/08/2020 22:07

@Iggly

Well, go and have a read of plenty of news outlets. Mumsnet is not the only source! It comes across a bit lazy if you expect people to do your reading for you.

But in summary, the Tory government stripped out coursework from A levels with a heavier reliance on exams. So they came up with a stupid algorithm to predict grades from mock exams.
This algorithm has hidden biases and benefits private educated pupils hence the outcry.

Well I did but didn’t see anything thing like you’ve just said Hmm

So cheers

OP posts:
Redcrayons · 14/08/2020 22:11

What the lock down anything to do with it

Seriously?

There were no exams.

Interested in this thread?

Then you might like threads about this subject:

General education
Hairthrowaway · 14/08/2020 22:15

From my (lack of) understanding pupils grades this year essentially aren’t fair, eg some are based on harsh mock exam grades where they were predicted quite low grades at the time, they may have done better had they been able to sit the exams but instead they have to stick with a shit predicted grade. Which could mean they can’t go to the uni of their choice anymore, or uni at all. Another aspect is that it’s difficult/costly to challenge the grades given too.

dayswithaY · 14/08/2020 22:20

In short, the government have screwed over a generation of young adults who will all be eligible to vote in the next election.

Hercwasonaroll · 14/08/2020 22:27

some are based on harsh mock exam grades where they were predicted quite low grades at the time, they may have done better had they been able to sit the exams but instead they have to stick with a shit predicted grade

This is untrue for the majority.

DadDadDad · 14/08/2020 22:28

I don't think Iggly's description is very accurate.

The exam boards haven't looked at coursework or exams, but it is the schools who were asked to make the initial assessment, giving every pupil an expected grade in every subject they were meant to be sitting, based on all the evidence available to them, mocks, other tests and exams, coursework, etc.

These grades (CAGs = centre assessed grades) were passed to the exam boards, which had to adjust the grades according to statistical analysis. In essence, these adjustments (ie move all the students in a subject up or down, using rankings to decide which results actually moved up or down a grade or more) were aiming to ensure that the overall pattern of grades awarded to a school were similar to the grades the school achieved in the past three years.

This has created several tricky outcomes. First, CAGs tended on average to come out slightly more generously than statistically you would expect. I don't think that's too surprising, as teachers with borderline candidates are going to tend to err on the side of going up. So naturally, the statistical adjustment is going to pull grades down from the CAG on average. It turns out 40% of CAGs have met this fate, which is obviously disconcerting for teachers (and for students who on the whole have been told now what their CAGs were - they were confidential before results day).

In fact, the statistical adjustment has resulted in grades being slightly higher than last year's across the country, on average.

I keep saying "on average" and that is where the devilish detail lies. The impact is variable, and in some cases pupils have received more than one grade below what their teachers expected, or even gone down two or more grades in a subject. A statistical exercise will produce some odd results for some individuals - unfortunately, the number of odd results seems to be quite large, and some of the cases do seem hard to understand.

I have great sympathy for those who have been shocked or disappointed by their grades. But there will be many who got the grades they were hoping for, or found maybe one subject was a grade lower than their teachers forecast, but they feel overall relieved to get what they need. Obviously, these pupils will not be making a fuss, so the voices shouting loudly (understandably) give the impression that the whole thing is a disaster. It's messy and the government have not handled it well, but it's not a disaster for many students.

Hairthrowaway · 14/08/2020 22:30

@Hercwasonaroll

some are based on harsh mock exam grades where they were predicted quite low grades at the time, they may have done better had they been able to sit the exams but instead they have to stick with a shit predicted grade

This is untrue for the majority.

I did say “some”
TheOnlyLivingBoyInNewCross · 14/08/2020 22:31

@Hairthrowaway

From my (lack of) understanding pupils grades this year essentially aren’t fair, eg some are based on harsh mock exam grades where they were predicted quite low grades at the time, they may have done better had they been able to sit the exams but instead they have to stick with a shit predicted grade. Which could mean they can’t go to the uni of their choice anymore, or uni at all. Another aspect is that it’s difficult/costly to challenge the grades given too.
Um, that's pretty much all wrong Confused

When the exams were cancelled in May and June, schools were asked t produce a Centre Assessed Grade for every student who was due to sit public exams. This grade had to be calculated using all available data that the school had, and then students needed to be placed in rank order within the grade - so we had to not just say that Student X would get an A, but that they were the strongest A grade in the cohort, and then Student Y was the second strongest A grade and so on.

These grades were then sent to exam boards who moderated them. We knew that some kind of statistical modelling would be used, and that the historic data of the school would count - so if we normally got 5 As, 6 Bs and 3 Cs in my subject, we couldn't enter CAGs that suddenly jumped to 14 A*s without being pretty closely scrutinised by the board.

The uproar is because the algorithm that Ofqual has used for its moderating has been used without reference to the CAGs for many cohorts of students (any groups larger than 15) - so the teacher insight/knowledge of the individual that the CAG demonstrated has been replaced by grades calculated purely on the basis of the school's historic data. This has resulted in huge numbers of grades being much lower than expected by students and schools alike.

Hercwasonaroll · 14/08/2020 22:34

It's a bit more statistically complicated that this but here goes.

There were no exams this year. Teachers inputted a centre assessed grade (CAG) and a rank order of students to the exam board.

The exam board/ofqual then looked at each school and each subject. They looked at the last 3 years of exam results and used this to create a grade distribution for each school in each subject. The rank order was then used to determine who got which grade. Eg if a school was allocated 10 grade A, then the top 10 of the rank got an A.

Statistically this model works really well for classes above 30. The bigger the class the more accurate the grade distribution.

Very small classes of 5 and under were allocated their CAG (in most cases).

The big problems have come from classes size 6-15. Because they are so small, the prior years attainment can have a big impact on the allocated grade distribution. At A level, lots of classes are this size, so there are lots of (rightly) disappointed students.

The reasons teacher predictions look over inflated are described well in another thread that I'll link rather than re hash here.

Hercwasonaroll · 14/08/2020 22:36

@Hairthrowaway That's really not the big problem though. Teachers haven't just used mocks, they've used all the information available including students work ethic and trajectory. Ofqual asked us to say what we think they would get if they sat the exam, not what we have evidence they have already achieved.

shadowlily · 14/08/2020 22:37

I think this explains the process quite clearly, using real data from a school's data set to illustrate how it worked:

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/

Hairthrowaway · 14/08/2020 22:41

To be honest I have only had a cursory glance on Twitter as this doesn’t really impact me. The tweets I saw were mainly in relation to BAME students being impacted harshly so that was where my baseline understanding came from.

DipSwimSwoosh · 14/08/2020 22:42

Hercwasonaroll has it. So small private schools with smaller cohorts are unaffected. The downgrades will affect more students from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Hercwasonaroll · 14/08/2020 22:43

BAME students have been affected because of the type schools they attend. Not because their mocks weren't as good.

IHeartHarryStyles · 14/08/2020 22:54

@Hercwasonaroll that’s interesting. My DD’s school has had its worst A-Level results in 3 years, with a significantly negative all time low value added score at -0.25. 42% of their CAG’s were downgraded. They’re one of the largest 6th forms in the country. I’d have thought going by what you’re saying they shouldn’t have been so badly affected.

They’ve put in a letter to the dept of education already stating their intention to appeal across the board.

Hercwasonaroll · 14/08/2020 22:59

Sadly schools prior value added is pretty much irrelevant. If your daughter is part of a lower prior attaining cohort then sadly their grade distribution will have been affected by their GCSE results.

From that FFT link, ofqual haven't sent any information to centres on how they decided to adjust the grade distribution using prior attainment.

Hercwasonaroll · 14/08/2020 23:00

They're probably less affected than they could have been if they were a small cohort! Not that this makes it any better for you or your daughter.

The model should have been checked and a robust appeals process planned alongside it.

IHeartHarryStyles · 15/08/2020 00:18

I confess to not understanding it all, DD is awaiting GCSE results next week after having an absolute shocker in her mocks. And not in a good way 😕

I get the VA added info as I’m a governor but I’m not 100% on how that’s calculated etc. I realise it’s on shadow data at this stage but it was shocking to see this was the worst they had ever done. This was dubbed an ‘able cohort’ and had been on track to outperform last year based on the GCSE data and mock information they had.

It’s all very confusing and sad for the kids who don’t get what they hoped for.

babydisney · 15/08/2020 06:14

They have quite literally determined a level results on biases including but not limited to socio economic status. It is appalling and the reasoning for the current serious investigation.

Hercwasonaroll · 15/08/2020 06:15

42% downgrade is pretty much in line with national average.

VA for this year is meaningless, to be honest any data judgement of this year is. As a governor I'd be asking why they are sending such data. I'd also be checking they aren't using the data to performance manage staff.

It could be that last year's students were weaker and because of the decent value added (pretty much ignored in the algorithm), it has meant a more able cohort have been downgraded.

Hercwasonaroll · 15/08/2020 06:18

@babydisney

Not really true beyond small schools getting their CAGs and most small schools tend to be independent.

The issue is the whole education system has those biases. Socio economic group determines your school, which in turn determines your outcome whether exams or algorithm are used.

RandomTree · 15/08/2020 06:42

@IHeartHarryStyles that sounds broadly in line with the national average- so not surprising for a large college.

gubbbbbddaaaa · 15/08/2020 06:51

I'm awaiting gcse results and have a dd who has never hit lower than a 7 in anything and predicted 8/9's... I just don't trust this government though and fear they will just give her shit grades .. in theory we are in a great position but I don't know 😬😬
I feel so so sorry for thr a level kids because at least with GCSEs you get a chance to redeem at a level before it gets to the uni stage . Such a shit storm !!!!