Can some one explain to me what the situation with the A- levels is?

[AnaadiNitya]

I’ve tried to have a look at other threads but it’s not very clear ( to me)

Are the exams results being downgraded due to what the school normally achieved? What the lock down anything to do with it?
If a pupil actually achieved a A would it actually be down graded anyway?

Sorry I know I sound dense on the matter.

Of course, the best solution would be to allow young people to repeat Year 13.

Xyc a good explanation, that sounds like such a big error.

What is the reason behind smaller groups not being standardised?

At my daughters school in English Lit they have small cohorts this year was 12, the year before 8, year before that 13 and year before that 7.

Last years results were really good, 25% A but the two years previous they had no A at all and only 1 A. This was partly due to previous low achieving cohorts (the school accept anyone with a Grade 5/C GCSE onto A level, but there was also a change of teaching staff.

My daughters year was cleverer than previous years as evidenced by their GCSE results. But everyone was downgraded by a grade. My dd got A* in her other essay based subject but a B in English.

I have friends with kids in a very high performing selective private school. However 2 years ago there was a big problem at the school leading to the headmaster being sacked and results were down that one year. But before and afterwards there results are fantastic. This year students have been downgraded up to 2 grades.

I don't know if anyone has seen this news article but I thought it was interesting:

news.sky.com/story/a-levels-exam-regulator-ignored-expert-help-after-statisticians-wouldnt-sign-non-disclosure-agreements-12049289

Following my previous post above, I can see from this thread that there is some ambiguity over cohorts between 6 and 15. I don't have time to go through the ofqual info to find whether it is cohorts of less than 5 or less than 15 that standardisation has not been applied but the principal still applies.

Likewise not saying private schools have not been affected, of course they have, many do have cohorts larger than 15 in some subjects so will have been subject to exactly the same standardisation as everyone else.

@xyzandabc

Due to lockdown, no exams were taken.

Instead teachers were asked to provide centre assessed grades (CAG) and a rank within each grade. Their very best guess as to what a student would have achieved had they taken the exam. To do this they used all data available to them and knowledge of the students. This would have been checked by head of department and SLT before finalising CAG and rank within each grade for each subject. It was a mammoth and very difficult process.

For every entered student, the school/college sent a CAG and rank to the exam board. Who then applied a standardisation to it to give a final grade.

One of the biggest problems with the standardisation is that small cohorts have been awarded the CAG without having standardisation applied. i.e where less than 15 students take a subject at a school, then the grade the teacher gave has been awarded.

Now, the centres that have the most small cohorts are of course private schools. They will traditionally also achieve the highest grades. So their CAGs will include an awful lot of A/A*grades. These have been awarded without standardisation being applied.

Then the standardisation model is applied to all larger cohorts to ensure that, nationally overall, roughly the same proportion of A/A* are awarded as in previous years.

Trouble is the small cohorts have already taken a large percentage of the top grades without being questioned. This leaves less top grades to be awarded to everyone else.

So small cohort schools (generally private) have been given more top grades than normal while large cohort schools/colleges (generally state) have been left with less top grades than normal.

Overall it may or may not have been fair to downgrade 40% of grades, perhaps some CAGs were over generous, perhaps not. However it is the way the standardisation has been applied (or not) meaning small cohorts do well out of it, where as large cohorts do badly that is grossly unfair and disproportionately affects disadvantaged schools and students.

That’s a really clear explanation thank you.

In cohorts of five or fewer, the CAGs were accepted. Cohorts of six to fifteen - CAGs were taken into account but some statistical modelling was applied as well.

@NewModelArmyMayhem18

Of course, the best solution would be to allow young people to repeat Year 13.

Once September comes and there is a new cohort of year 7s starting, there would be no spare classrooms for the year 13s to come and be taught in and no teachers to teach them.

The thing with some private schools is that if they are highly selective they will have less year to year fluctuation.

For example the private school my friends kids attend accept anyone onto A level as long as they have a Grade 6/B in GCSE. So they have a wider range of abilities than a private school who only accept those with a Grade 7/A. The latter can expect to consistently achieve A* - A in A levels. The former might have the odd year where there are more B/C

Each year the percentages of cleverer kids fluctuate. However the big state 6th form college that accept anyone with 5/C fluctuate even more year to year.

My niece achieved a B in her best subject that she’s taking into degree. She attended a large 6th form college. Her CAG was A & she was ranked no 1. At Christmas her teacher told her mum, I’ve had no A-A* students in this subject for ages and this year 3 come at once. The college put on a special enrichment programme for these students to push them as they were capable.

And, of course, some subjects would be more popular at private or selective state schools than at comprehensives (say, MFL or music), so there will be a variation by subject as to which sector was affected more. Undeniably, the independent sector has marginally benefitted overall.

i.e where less than 15 students take a subject at a school, then the grade the teacher gave has been awarded.

This isn't true. Less than 5 means the CAG was awarded. Between 5 and 15 a sliding scale of CAG and algorithm were applied. Many schools with this size class lost out because each prior year can vary massively due to the size of the class.

@xyzandabc Thank you!!

Next issue is the 'triple lock' announced by the government less than 48 hours before results were published but with no avtualy detail.

So media reporting is saying essentially students can use either their centre assessed grade, their mock grade or their grade awarded on Thursday. So we have students saying my CAG or mock was higher than the grade I was given so I'll have that on my certificate instead thanks very much.

Problem is schools are still awaiting guidance as to what counts as a valid mock. Some schools will do a full mock under exam conditions using a past paper not available online. Some will pick and choose questions from past papers available online and do them in class over s couple of lessons. Some will tell the students which topics to revise, some won't. Some will still have these papers done in case evidence is needed some won't. Some will have been marked by teachers who know the pupils, some will have been marked externally anonymously. Some will have done mocks in yr13, some only in yr12. Such a huge range of variables, if your school hasn't done whatever will be classed as a valid mock then you can't appeal on those grounds.

So even though students have had their results, many still don't know what their final grade will be. Until more information is forthcoming, no one knows which is incredibly frustrating for those who are dependent on it for their uni or work placement.

The whole thing has been a farce from start to finish with the goal posts frequently moving in the blink of an eye.

@Hercwasonaroll

i.e where less than 15 students take a subject at a school, then the grade the teacher gave has been awarded.

This isn't true. Less than 5 means the CAG was awarded. Between 5 and 15 a sliding scale of CAG and algorithm were applied. Many schools with this size class lost out because each prior year can vary massively due to the size of the class.

I realised I was possibly mistaken after posting and did clarify shortly after. Thank you for making that clear, I didn't have the time to go looking for the exact numbers.

The rest of my post is still accurate I believe.

Yes the rest is. Your post about appeals is also spot on!

Cohorts of 25+ have generally been OK. Obviously there will be some anomalies.

So media reporting is saying essentially students can use either their centre assessed grade, their mock grade or their grade awarded on Thursday

That isn’t the triple lock though, and that’s where more confusion is arising, especially amongst the students. My DS thought as your posts suggest that the three things included in the triple lock are mock grade/actual grade given/CAG.

But the three things are mock (still waiting for definition of valid), actual grade given and resit.

I think it’s only Scotland where the CAG can be used.

What a bloody mess.

@Letseatgrandma

So media reporting is saying essentially students can use either their centre assessed grade, their mock grade or their grade awarded on Thursday

That isn’t the triple lock though, and that’s where more confusion is arising, especially amongst the students. My DS thought as your posts suggest that the three things included in the triple lock are mock grade/actual grade given/CAG.

But the three things are mock (still waiting for definition of valid), actual grade given and resit.

I think it’s only Scotland where the CAG can be used.

Exactly, the whole thing is just so confusing, awaiting clarification, misreporting, misunderstanding at a time when these poor students really need some certainty.

For those that got what they needed/wanted and are happy, brilliant.

For those that worked hard but didn't get what they expected/deserved, I really hope that they realise none of this was their fault. They shouldn't come away from it all feeling like they worked so hard for nothing and it's all pointless.

One of the issues seems to be that where a school has previously over 3 years always achieved 2 and above for their students the algorithm won't accept this.

It sets a statistical average over U-9 for gcse and U-A* for a level.

So where cohorts over 15 have the rankings it's skewed both ends quite dramatically in some cases.

So there are cases where cohorts of 50 had the lowest CAG as D or E and that student automatically got a U because statistically the algorithm decided X% would achieve that.

So then those with CAG of D for given the E's because statistically X% would get that according to the algorithm.

Some lower in C ranked CAG got D's - again due to statistics.

But also there have been times where students with CAG of A get an A+ because the computer decided that statistically X% would get that.
And there is years that students don't achieve this as chorus aren't linear in ability.

So what you are left with is teachers who were told to grade each student based on evidence of achievement including mocks - then rank into order within the at grade - basically now being told the CAG was irrelevant and the rankings were just put into an algorithm and students who now know there grade is based solely on what a computer said and nothing to do with an actual true as possible reflection of what they have personally achieved.

I think what days the most is that a mathematician put the 2019 actual results into the algorithm and it only produced the correct results 45-65% of the time across the board.

Which to me is proof that the algorithm wasn't based at on true previous results.

It's not just going down a single grade either which hasn't been widely publicised. My son (in Wales) went from a B to an E in a crucial subject losing his uni place (obviously we will appeal if and when the Welsh government explains how they are going to do this, right now they are just announcing announcements the fuckers). How do you explain this to a hard working teenager and his friends who are in similar boats? That's a hell of a computer program doing that to kids.

@onlyreadingneverposting8 but I am afraid none of what the teachers did is remotely relevant because apart from the ranking ( and assuming your ds was in a cohort of more than 15) Ofqual didn’t even look at the grades the schools submitted , they metaphorically put them in a shredder before they even opened the envelope .

No it’s not true about Eton , apparently they have written to the Gov to complain. But remember they sit a lot of Pre U rather than A levels . Also affected but different qualification.

@Peaseblossom22 that's incorrect. Ofqual applies an algorithm to the submitted grades, which was impart based on the ranking. The teachers decided the grade and ranking. Ds has a friend who was top of his class - performing at A*/A in every test. His submitted grade by the school was a B and he came out with a D. Therefore, must have been very low within that B grade given that others in his class came out with a B!

@onlyreadingneverposting8

What you have said isn't entirely correct either. It depends on the size of the class as to what ofqual did with CAGs. Under 5 and CAGs awarded (mostly), 5-15 a combination of CAGs and algorithm, over 15 algorithm applied and CAGs ignored.

In your ds friend case the school shouldn't have input a B.

I thought this added another interesting element regarding their statistical model:
www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/14/do-the-maths-why-englands-a-level-grading-system-is-unfair