So what will be the long term effects?

[coldwarenigma]

Out on my 1 daily walk with Ddog I was thinking dangerous I Know! What will be the long term repercussions from all that is happening?
Some thoughts went through my head:

disclaimer:- this is fantasy/dogwalk musings, no research, sources etc.

• Employers will be judged on their reactions to the crisis. Many companies will go under.

-zero hours will be banned -Childcare will be viewed differently. -The mantra on here is 'its not childcare' but clearly for some when push comes to shove it is exactly that. There will be a reversal in reliance on outsourcing of care.

• Every day counts in education, attendance is everything. This has now been debunked. Education can be through other means and forms. A change in how education is delivered may develop. eg online will be used in conjunction with attendance.
• Housing - gardens big enough to grow food will become popular again. Mortgages- the need for 2 wages- people will become more wary now incomes have been shown to be very precarious.
• self employment - again shown to be precarious- there will be demands for protections. I did also wonder how many will be shot in foot by not declaring all income but just a minimum if it comes to government compensating wages.

Has anyone else had similar thoughts or do I need to buy earphones, to distract me, from thinking when dog walking?

Shops with minimal or no online delivery services are now being forced to focus on improving or creating these.

Our local garden centre (Scotsdales) don't take delivery orders by phone and have next to no online shopping. They've sent out an email saying "Please consider waiting for us to be ready, before you rush to order from one of the bigger online players."

Given their market demographics it may not have been a priority before, but hopefully after the current coronavirus situation is over we are left with more choices for shopping online.

Hopefully more people who would normally have kissed the kids goodbye at 7am and not seen them again until bedtime, spending every weekend away from home on their 'hobbies' and regarding housework and childrearing as simple easy things that their SAH partner does whilst watching TV and drinking gin, will have a HUGE wake up call.

Divorce levels will rocket. But maybe more people will cohabit rather than live separately, as being in lockdown (should it happen again) as a single person can be lonely.

More houses built with gardens rather than the tiny yards barely fit for a rotary washing line. Round here, in a rural village, we've got houses that go for £300,000 and have no outdoor space other than a tiny front yard.

More valuing of the jobs that REALLY keep things going - NHS, services etc. Maybe these people can stop being paid a pittance to keep the country on its feet.

More valuing of time spent outside, just walking in the sunshine rather than in front of screens.

It would be nice.

More conscious of waste, the 'make do and mend' mentality might come back a bit more widely.

Less food waste. A few times this week I have used something up that I previously would have thrown out and bought fresh, because I don't know when I'll be able to get fresh.

Being grateful for being able to go outside. Not taking for granted simple liberties.

I live in rural Ireland, we were hit very badly by the 2008 recession. In fact I would say we have not recovered to pre 2008 levels yet. The recession ked to people wanting to buy Irish. Although there was an earlier, successful campaign on this vein in previous decades so it was possibly something people had forgotten in the boom times. I stopped buying unnecessary luxuries and never started again. I always recycle and upcycle what I can and mend every thing rather than chuck it out. I think those are fairly standard responses to a shocking downturn in the economy.

In Ireland I hope this will lead to a revision of the leaving cert exam. It banks nearly all on three weeks of written exams. It's overdue an overhaul and I hope it will spread out the assessment over the two year cycle instead of these three weeks only. If it had been the case there wouldn't be so much pressure on the system now to get those students back before the 3rd of June. Now the department can experience first hand how impractical this pressure is for students.

There has to be some good comes out of this.
1, Less commuting and a return to smaller regional / local rather than big centralized offices. People will value their time and family more.

2, Less consumerism, the badge of pride will be Made in UK, rather than Gucci / Armani or whatever made in low cost country.
If we aren't back to normal come Christmas that's going to be a major change for people. I dread my kids asking for stuff that you can't actually get a hold off. I know that seems self centred / shallow.

3, People will be more respectful of the things we have, NHS, Schools, and Public parks.

4, A generally more caring society. And more simple way of life.

A bit of a crazy thought I think people could become more religious. When things are out with peoples control religion provides hope.

I also thing people in general will become more hygiene conscious, washing hands, keeping places clean.

I honestly think that nothing will change.

I would like it too, but we're too inured in materialism/capitalism.

God, I am not one of these people banging on about how this will show how great home working is or home schooling is.

I hate home working adn this has just confirmed it. I love having a clear division between home life and work life. Even without the kids I find it harder to work at home. I am already in pain from workign at an unsuitable desk and chair - they are from DH's old place and for his height - not mine!

This is not 'homeschooling' me and DH have full time jobs to do at home. The kids are doing minimal amounts of 'educational' computer games the kids have sent home. Nor is it quality time with the kids when we continually say, 'no we can't play we are working', then give them videos on teh ipad when they ask to keep them quiet.

All these 'home schooling is so great' posts must be from stay at home mums who have found a new focus. Certainly not from working parents suddenly finding they have a full time job adn full time child care / educational responsibilities!

When back at school there is going to be a real educational divide between the kids of parents with a stay at home parent and those with full tiem working parents. Easy to guess who will have had teh better experience!

I think those who are lucky enough to have older relatives survive through this will be beyond grateful that they can visit them with impunity.

I haven't seen my gran for 2 months because I was "too busy". Perfectly easy to justify, I live over an hour away from where I grew up, I work full time, my husband works full time and we have two children who have friends/clubs/activities so on those rare days when we had nothing planned I'd literally hermit and revel in being able to chill out and not rush anywhere.

Now my heart aches that I may never see her again, for that matter my parents too. They're in multiple vulnerable categories. Chatting on the phone just isn't the same.

Literally the first thing I'll do when it's safe to is go visit. I'll never take visiting them for granted agin.

I also think more people will be steady preppers and always buying a little extra to build up a rainy day supply of non-perishable essentials, prioritising money for this over other things.

I hope that the world boycotts Wetherspoons pubs, Sports Direct and Virgin flights from this point on.

I hope that it changes our education sector to ensure teachers and TAs are respected and valued members of society.

I hope that support workers and care workers are recognised as having one of the most vital roles within our ageing society.

I don't think companies will give up on offices altogether, though. Yes, there'll be more acceptance of home working, and remote meetings for people who live far away, but there's also been a recognition that it's never quite the same. You just don't get the same cameraderie like you do at the office. Many of us like having the routine of a 9-5. Sometimes you really do need people to be there in person or it doesn't really have same atmosphere.

But yes, I hope people continue to stop wasting so much food, and we become more mindful of how much we're using.

Agreed, Bezalelle.

And how many complaint threads have we seen here from WFH people in the past? It's always the same three complaints: 1. My family don't see my business as a proper job. 2. My neighbours keep asking me to sign for their parcels. 3. I've gained weight because my fridge is too distracting. I think many people like to have a variety of office and home work throughout the week.

Increase in online shopping. Those who didn't before will find it a new routine

I think this is most likely.

Milk men and other more local shops delivering retaining some of their sudden increase in customers as people realise the convenience.

Possibly more homeworking and less bussiness travel but I think that will be a smaller effect.

Everyone will keep spare toilet rolls at home just in case ...

Everyone will keep a stash of extra food and other essentials I should think. These last couple of weeks have brought home to me how quickly things can fall apart.

I'm hoping the ignoramus who owns Wetherspoons goes under.
More families may home educate and perhaps how education is delivered will be more flexible.
More respect for health and social care workers 💓
More flexible home working.

Totally agree ITasteSpring. The number of mums who now have something to do and are letting us all know it is quite staggering. If I were one I would be spending a bit more time thinking about the future fragility of the economy and perhaps getting a job to bring in some cash/ get a pension going, instead of reverting to a coffee gym repeat existence.
On a lighter note, I hope we’ve seen the end of open vats of pick n mix or uncovered trays of baking/ cakes etc in shops.

Honestly, I'm not sure. Too many people are to quick to fall back into old habits.

I fear a recession or even a depression. House prices will go down.

Personally I will definitely buy less stuff and food - I'm meal planning and its helping to save money, But I agree with ITasteSpring - for home workers, home schooling just isn't happening on anything more then a superficial level :( I have to put my job first if I want to remain in employment and keep paying the mortgage - single parent.

Roll on on September if not before, when they can go back to their lovely school who do the most fabulous job of educating.

Companies going under by the 1000, small ones who can’t sustain losses yes but also larger ones which aren’t being well run or are getting bad publicity for how they are treating employees and customers.

@SleepyHead you’re right though someone will profit probably the following arses:

Wetherspoons will be lucky to survive their actions during all this I think, latest I’ve seen on social media is he’s refusing to pay suppliers! Ditto virgin. Their owners will be fine that’s why they don’t care but I think the businesses will sink.

Zero hours - I don’t think will be banned. This govt far too fond of being able to say people on zero hours contracts are “fully employed” and businesses will love them even more now as they won’t have had to pay those employees or furlough them they just didn’t give them any hours!

I agree views on education may change, how exactly I’m not sure, perhaps letting parents have dc educated at home at certain points in the school year?

Housing - sigh! Has been in major crisis for several years! Sadly I don’t see things improving much here.

Self employment - I too can see demands for greater protections for self employed workers and businesses, I don’t see this govt providing them. They simply don’t have the clout of big businesses and big business don’t like small and self employed businesses.

Home working - as someone who is normally housebound anyway and has been wanting to become a home worker I am hoping this will mean far more employers will be more amenable to home working. If the current crisis goes on for any length of time possibly the govt will introduce measures to encourage companies to let employees work from home. Also those companies who’ve had to buy equipment and software for employees to work at home won’t want that money wasted.

I’m worried that

Public services as you say will take an even bigger hit, even including the nhs once the immediate crisis is over. It’ll be very quiet because it will be a vote loser but it will happen I fear.

As many of us who are sick, disabled and vulnerable the rest of the time already know they’ve been severely cut in recent years. I’m seriously mentally ill (among other things) and have not had any support for almost a year. I’m also aware of others in my circle who are sick, disabled and weren’t getting the care they needed anyway.

UC already had a massive backlog, 2 in my circle work for dwp and they were overwhelmed already at work, they’re now being inundated with new claims but apparently none of the relevant IT has been updated/enhanced to cope.

“I'm hoping the hand washing habit will stick.” As an ocd sufferer I have such mixed feelings about this at the moment! On the one hand I’m glad people are washing more but I’m also wondering wtf they were doing before as you’re not really being asked to wash more often than you should have been before! I’m also massively stressed as I normally get through a lot of handwash (and other cleaning products!) anyway and I can’t get it now! I’ve been trying to order for ages repeatedly trying adding whatever brand/scent I really don’t care! But I cannot get any.

And yes would be good if the culture of presenteeism disappeared but I fear it won’t.

“I hope people will become more mindful about not wasting food” the opposite is happening, refuse collectors have noted a 30% increase in food waste already

If we aren't back to normal come Christmas

1 I think that’s massively optimistic

2 Brexit hits properly in the new year!

“I also think more people will be steady preppers and always buying a little extra to build up a rainy day supply of non-perishable essentials, prioritising money for this over other things.”

I started reading the preppers threads when the Brexit referendum result was for Brexit (which I was utterly shocked and bewildered at!) I’m so glad I did as I’m now extremely vulnerable due to the current situation leading to so many ordering online who previously didn’t. But even with the little prepping I was able to do I’m still
really worried what’s going to happen to me when my stores run out. I’ve been trying to get an online slot with ANYONE for almost 2 weeks now with no joy.

The supermarkets I hope will learn from this to:

Ration products as soon as there’s panic buying starts to occur

Priorities online delivery slots for the elderly, sick and disabled.

Employ enough staff on proper contracts

Treat their ground floor staff as well as possible inc security from assaults/harassment by customers

Ultimately I think little will change on a societal level.

The work my y6s are producing is not a patch on what they would have produced if we were in the classroom and its HARD to teach a new maths concept remotely. In fact we are only setting activities not really teaching. So no, I dont think views on it being important to attend school will change.
A good 1/3rd of my class have done nothing I gave set for them. Nothing.

Stay at home parents/one income families will be more prevalent.

I hate home working adn this has just confirmed it. I love having a clear division between home life and work life.

I agree

Hopefully Brexit will be stopped