If May resigns tonight, what happens next?

[WWYDhelpplease]

I don’t know if the media are speculating or there is a chance she could resign later today. If she does, what happens next?

she is making a statement at 5 oclock says BBC NEWS 24

Another one?

Listening to Irish radio today: If TM resigns, there would need to be a general election. It would take about 3 months and it was said there would be a possibility of scrapping article 50. I doubt she will resign. Tony Blair suggested another Brexit referendum.

"
Let's have an election and let Corbyn win - then we'll see what the state of the country under socialism/ communism is and finally shut the Left up"

Socialism or Communism? You have to pick one-can't be both!

Can someone explain in laymens terms please.

The key point, in all 500-odd pages or whatever, is the NI backstop IMO. Essentially, the deal is that NI stays in the CU and SM as does the rest of the UK on some sort of sliding scale, which means we can't make FTAs on our own, we have to go via the EU's. This is anywhere between brilliant or terrible depending on your viewpoint.

This backstop is to prevent a hard border between NI and Ireland, which would contravene the Good Friday Agreement and possibly lead to a return to the Troubles.

The NI unionists (i.e. DUP, the minor party TM bunged half a billion to shore up her Tory party after the election she didn't need to call and then lost) don't like it because they want to be the exact same as the UK except for things like abortion because they hate women.

The SNP don't like it because if NI gets special treatment and voted Remain, then why can't Scotland, especially as they voted Remain too.

Plaid don't like it because it seems they've changed their mind and realised that they're screwed.

Lib Dems & Greens don't like it because they hate Brexit anyway.

Brexiteers don't like it because they'd still be subject to those pesky EU tax evasion laws. Oh, and taking back control, wiffle yadda yadda.

Tory remainers don't like it because it's essentially Brexit in name only and we'd still be taking our laws from the EU with no say in making them, plus it's a massive ballache.

Labour - who knows what their position is on anything? Something about not meeting the 6 tests and mass job losses.

TLDR: everybody hates it because it's a compromise, therefore nobody's happy. There aren't that many options left to us, so it's knives out, toys out the pram and time to leave the sinking ship for many of those political rats.

she is making a statement at 5 oclock says BBC NEWS 24

Another one? grin

yep and im no fan but i would be having a migrain by now of epic proportions

I do wish people would educate themselves and understand the difference between socialism and communism.

THIS ^^^^^^

I have sympathy for anyone holding the responsibility of trying to make sense out of this unholy mess. Cameron realised what was coming and fled on day one. I hope she doesn't resign as that just creates a whole new mess, and no one looks like they have any better answers than she does.

I don't see there is going to be a way to get the EU and all votes going in the same direction. We're down really to two least worse options: plan now for the inevitable crash out with no plan, or try to renegotiate staying in, and hope the EU's terms for calling off Brexit are not going to make things even worse.

She arrived at No.10 15 mins ago and then left 5 mins later with 45 mins until her conference - has she gone to the Palace I wonder?

If Corbyn gets in the shit really will hit the fan
FFS. The shit hit the fan months ago. Correction... years ago. Around about June 2016. People are so tribal in their political beliefs, it's ridiculous. How could anyone live through the past two years and think anything is going well?
I can't abide Jezza, but this demonising of him is ridiculous when you consider how awful people's lives are here and now with the NHS on its knees, increased food bank use etc etc. These things are all down to current Government's austerity programme, but people are wailing about Corbyn. It's so fucking blinkered.

Thank you @MadeleineMaxwell

I do wish people would educate themselves and understand the difference between socialism and communism.
Quite. The political illiteracy in this country is appalling.

Would she not remain PM until the outcome of a leadership contest is known?

1. She won't resign
2. If there are 48 Tory MPs who have submitted a letter of no confidence to the 1922 Committee, then it triggers a vote of no confidence in May.
3. If that happens, the vote is currently provisionally pencilled in for Tuesday.
4. If she wins the vote she is immune from a leadership challenge for 12 months. She still has to get a deal through parliament though and the numbers don't add up to allow that right now. That might change. The alternative is we leave with no deal as thats the default option. Or May ends up losing a vote, and since her leadership can not be challenged within the party, that leaves a collaspe of government as an option. This would be an effective constitutional crisis. Especially if we are not doing no deal planning at the same time. Any new government would struggle to get any deal through, and the only options might be an extension to a50 or revokation of a50 (if we are able to do that).
5. If May looses a no confidence vote, we get a leadership contest. Under the circumstance we don't have time for one, but the fighting Con factions are unlikely to accept a candidate from the other side, and a unity candidate is none existant given how the party is split. This means it WILL go to the party membership, barring the last two candidates both being on the same 'side' and one conceding to the other (this is not going to happen. This is the Tory party). The party membership are loons and are likely to vote for the most extreme right wing candidate who has the most unrealistic plan for Brexit which will be incompatible with the EU.

The most likely outcome, is currently no deal. Possibly a more managed no deal, but an absoluete car crash and disaster for the country and without a cruical transistion period. A deal IS still possible, but the longer we go on, the less likely that is for various reasons.

At the 11th hour if we are still in desparate straits thats when revokation (if we have the power to) or and extension of a50, start to become more viable.

The thing to look out for is how much no deal planning we are actually doing. In a choas situation, thats unlikely. That raises the odds of revokation or extension IF the PM is May or a moderate.

If its a hard liner, just pray...

Excellent summary MAdeline, but it was a whole billion that the DUP got (£100m per vote....)

I ead a good piece in the FT. This deal has at least united the country in horror.

If TM resigns, there would need to be a general election.

No there wouldn't We don't have a presidential system in this country. We vote in a party, not a leader. If TM resigns/is toppled, whoever then becomes leader of the Conservative Party, then becomes PM. No GE.

Unless - because the Conservatives are a minority government only in power thanks to the Confidence and Supply deal with the DUP, they withdraw that and someone (could be from any party), raises a Motion of No Confidence in the Government and it loses that vote. However, that still isn't the end of the matter: under the FTPA, there is then 14 days during which the other parties can try and form a new government, before a GE would need to be called.

Fuck knows but I'm worried that a snap election will be called and the wolf that is in sheep's clothing will take the helm.
Then our lifetime and our children's lifetime really will be fucked but I'm praying people ain't that stupid ( in the real world anyway but obviously not on MN which is ridiculously left wing bias).

I don't feel sorry for her - she's a politician and she campaigned to be PM.

Brexit is all about the Irish border and the GFA.

We have to come to an agreement with Ireland, or we break the GFA which is an international peace agreement.

Given Brexit is all about making international agreements, we can not afford to break the GFA as it makes the statement that we do not value international agreement nor regard them as binding. So whether we like it or not, we have to lump it - until we renegotiate a full and proper alternative. The backstop is merely the mechanism to protect the GFA.

Anyone saying Ireland are blackmailing us, or NI are holding us hostage wasn't paying attention in 2016. This was always an issue - its not Ireland's fault we didn't consider the implications or the effect on the GFA when we wrote the legislation for the Referendum. This was an enormous political mistake and oversight.

Any government not taking this seriously and accepting the need for a protection to the GFA is irresponsible and nuts from our own point of view and interest. We do not want to be in a situation where we break the GFA 'by accident'. Cos that undermines every single potential new trade deal going forward.

Clarification - she campaigned within her own party, not as part of a GE.

My apologies nonevernotever, the situation is in fact half a billion quid worse than I had remembered!

I’m amazed she hasn’t got totally fed up with the whole shit show and resigned before. You have to commend her for trying to do the job that no one wants to do. I hope she doesn’t go. I’m no TM fan but Christ the alternative is terrifying.

What has never been made clear is what the likes of Boris and JRM would suggest we do about NI, does anyone know? I don’t seem them brimming with ideas.

Left, right, centre? They are all power-mad, self-interested narcissists who couldn't lead a horse to water. We need actual politicians. Women and men who are intelligent, forward-focused and who care about the people. Where the fuck are they?

I sort of get the sentiment, but I listen to political debate shows, Question Time, etc, and I hear an awful lot of drivel from the public, about how we "need to just leave" and saying all the kind of nonsense that Fox and Co have been saying. They're beholden to the views of people who voted Brexit. We were absolutely warned it would be a disaster, and the majority of those who voted went along with it all.