I don’t doubt that at all but you can’t say the home ed is definitely responsible. As I understand it parents are more likely to turn to home ed if they have a child who is having difficulties to start with, whatever they may be, within the mainstream system
yes, that may be the case, although in my experience young children with such difficulties do gradually improve and mature during their time at school, but not necessarily if they are removed from school permanently.
Level 1 & 2 courses as you mention - why is this a problem by the way? They'll get there in the end
well, no they don't, because free education in this country ends at 19, its not indefinite! ( except for English and maths GCSE -you can continue to study for these for free at night school, if you can get a place)
You put someone on a level 2 course at 16 in very few circumstances. they may be naturally low ability academically, and be working to their full potential, they may not speak good enough English for a level 3 course, they may have bombed badly in GCSEs, for some reason, cannabis or exclusion being the main two that spring to mind, or they may have missed out on their education through their parents removing them from the system.
that can sometimes work out, a condensed, intense level 2 course at 16, going on to level 3 (BTEC or A levels) at 17, university at 19.
But it is one shot, and if they miss it, they run out of free education. Starting at level 1 at 16, which some home edders do, they will miss out, so yes, you can compensate by doing a foundation degree, or go to a private school, that's an extra £9 000- £12 000 fees, there are loans, of course, but not an unlimited amount of years of loans, so even then, there is no leeway, and a limit to how far you can go.
so a motivated and intelligent home edder can end up irrecoverably behind, through no fault of their own
I'm also interested in where you live that you're coming across such swathes of Home Ed children with such terrible outcomes, because I live in London
I also live in London, but the college where I have been recruiting is very much a "sink" college, where we take literally hundreds of applicants every year that have been turned down elsewhere, so the catchment area is huge. We are the very last chance for many of our students, we take a lot of young people with criminal records, history of drug abuse, etc, and give them another chance - so in that sense its a brilliant place.