FFS Clacton

You mean that you usually agree with Nelson but not when you support the policy he takes apart?

I could have quoted similar from left wing commentators if that had been easier to disagree with, 'the Left' style.

You used his chart and someone else said it should be listened to.

I didn’t know who he was or if a company, I googled to see the source and he came up as a centre right journalist.

I think he’s right leaning but pretty objective on the whole. It’s a hypothesis and one that seems credible to me. It’s certainly ironic that a political party would come up with a policy that would on the face of it do the most electoral damage in the handful of seats where they have sitting MPs.

Hey Debbie, terrible lot aren’t they ;

They certainly are. I think a few HMO's in Clacton should be sufficient punishment for not being on the right side of history. Get on it Andy!

His article in the Times this evening doesn't really single out Reform voters as the benefits claimants (unlike his Substack article) - rather he refers to 'constituents and target voters'.

Also this;

'Internally, some Reform strategists say their core voters are workers in high-welfare areas that don’t claim benefits and resent those who do. But others say the data is never quite clear, and they risk being attacked by Labour as the Pip-snatchers.'

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-immigration-benefits-pip-policy-nigel-farage-qvdrs6vhh

His article in the Times this evening doesn't really single out Reform voters as the benefits claimants

It really does. It shows very clearly the potential impact of adopting that policy on Jenrick snd Tice’s majorities. You can try to pull the wool over our eyes as much as you like @Clavinova but it doesn’t wash. I hope they put it in their manifesto and make a gift of their seats to another party because you can depend on it every other party will make hay with it.

Thanks Clav. The first line in italics is one of the reasons that I thought it could be. Not sure what the second line means that much though.

Do you have a share link?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crl76jkxel3o

Unfortunately not.

Does this work?

There’s a problem in the small print of Reform UK’s benefits plan

https://www.thetimes.com/article/9cb754ac-f3a5-4771-ba4b-b81d0f48194b?shareToken=ed3c9f4c9ae87a54ff8c47bb16bd8d6b

Thanks.

His substack is more detailed and straight forward but not that different

But the Reform vote is strongest in the areas most dependent on benefits

Just to put your cut and paste in context of the rest of the part of the article you lifted it from:

This can still be the case, it’s not surprising due to demographics.

It still doesn’t evidence who PIP claimants vote for in those areas, it also doesn’t mean much about support as resentment from non claimants could be higher.

The non claimants resentment is a Reform line, no data to back it up,

Do you not wonder why Reform did not announce this policy before the by-election?

If the above is correct, it would have been a great way to appeal to those voters. Lefite PIP claimants, a gift to Reform.

Or is this 5 million ways to distract?

Less than 25% of the electorate see immigration as a top priority

I think that was locally. Nationally, immigration is a joint top issue with the economy (both 49%) - YouGov tracker August 2026;

https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country

Tice and Jenrick have tiny majorities. It wouldn’t need many of their Pip claimant constituents to vote against them to lose their seats. And of course there are those people’s families too …

If the above is correct, it would have been a great way to appeal to those voters. Lefite PIP claimants, a gift to Reform

Good point.

We might have a chance to see what effect, if any, the announcement has if there is a second by-election in Clacton. Or perhaps, if the goddesses are smiling down on us, one in Boston and Skegness.😃

You don’t have data to back up your claims.

It’s not as if Reform have been pro PIP all this time is it? Look on here PIP claimants are not backing Reform, even before this announcement, why do you think their general take and approach was missed?

As for benefits the only time Farage got a dip pre the current saga was the two child benefit cap. They lost a few points in polling. Jenrick has reversed it.

You are certain many of the 18% in Clacton claiming PIP voted Reform. There’s no evidence. Feel free to put it up if so.

In any case if they lose some voters the policies may gain others, even on this site the AIBU showed that in votes.

It is veru true that many on the right absolutely despise disabled people who claim benefits. We see that on MN all the time, sadly.

You are still putting words in my mouth

You read the articles linked I presume

You support this policy? Do you resent PIP claimants as well?

(edited for spelling)

As I said in the first post the Times chart is too simplistic and creating an un evidenced connection between high PIP claimants and Reform votes.

There’s no data that actually backs that up. You’d need a survey, and actually ask people receiving PIP in Clacton. People generally know which party to vote for and who not to vote for if they rely on the payment.

I don’t see it as a surprise, they’ve always indicated benefits are an issue, most people voting will have got that already.

Like it or not it, Farage is very popular in Clacton. If another by election has to be held, after the investigation, he will probably win again..

That’s democracy.