FFS Clacton

Farage / Reform have changed the direction of Labour massively already. From Mahmood’s policies to a new leader.

Only if you believe the electorate have been manipulated by Reform to hate Starmer and care about immigration rather than thinking these things by themselves. If the latter then Labour would need to change to be electable, regardless of Reform.
As it happens I do think Reform are manipulating peoples views on immigration, so will concede your point.

I’m more coming at it from Labour MP’s fears.

They feared Reform winning and were ready to change leader to try to stop that happening, and they thought Reform’s success was in part due to immigration policies so were ready to switch to Mahmood.

There is no specific leftie. Lefty is anyone Nigel Farage says it is on any given day., The list is endless.🤣

But the man has said what he wants and has voted precisely the right way to get it.

Once you start seeing voters as stupid because they want different things from you, if becomes hard to understand politics at all.

In fact, all we really know is that that’s what he’s told some interviewer.There are so many other reasons why someone might answer that. Assuming it must by stupidity is a rather literal and unimaginative way of seeing the world.

To get people out of the Reform hole you have to give them a better alternative they can relate to, treating them like scum will never change their minds

The only person treating the people of Clacton like scum is Nigel Farage. He manipulated them and then couldn't be arsed doing anything after getting their vote.🤷‍♀️

Yes he did. Farage's selling point is hate.

Do you hate <<enter any group here>>?
Well I hate them too.
Vote Reform.

That fella answered the question put to him honestly. He voted Farage to piss people off. He didn't dress it up. Fair fucks to him.

Away on with your patronising so many other reasons.🙄 Stop inventing stuff in your head and attributing it to others. Try being less imaginative and engage with more reality.

I love the idea that one man (Nigel Farage) can manipulate the prole of a whole town.

Yes, the Democrats made this mistake in America. Twice.

Deplorable lives matter.

Doesn’t look as if any lives apart from MAGA ones matter with ICE trigger happy on the streets.

And how is it going for the Trump voters in the US? Easier to blame the Democrats I guess.

"Biden too old, Harris a black woman"

From Fraser Nelson

Why would PIP increase due to an MP? Not sure what is causing that.

The point being made is obvious, isn't it? Reform's proposals would take benefits away from some of its own core supporters. The Times did an article on this a while ago. If those supporters turn against Reform, some of the current Reform seats will be lost because the majorities are narrow.

However, that assumes the turkeys won't vote for Christmas. I have my doubts.

Is it obvious? How are people determining who anyone on PIP votes for?

It’s not recorded. Some in Clacton might get PIP but many do not, who’s deciding which party they voted for.

I get there’s a gotcha from some, but it makes sense Reform do well in lower income demographic areas, which often means higher claims. It doesn’t mean much about the actual claimants vote. Who has that information?

And if they do lose some people due to a policy they may gain others.

You can read his full substack

https://frasernelson.substack.com/p/six-flaws-with-reforms-welfare-plans

Of course not everyone on benefits in Reform areas will vote Reform. But there will be a proportion who do.

It doesn’t mean much about the actual claimants vote. Who has that information?

You and others on the right claim Labour is the party supported by welfare recipients. You have argued that is why the backbenchers revolted against the PIP proposals last year. I assume you had the information you are now asking about?

Yes Labour MPs are influenced by pressure and in trays and will take that to the HoC, you’ll be aware of that. Parties do reflect core voters.

That chart and any claims in Times on votes in Clacton and how PIP claimants vote is overly simplistic.

They don’t know how the 18% voted.

To create any narrative about that group of people they would need more information specifically to them.

How are you sure which party the 18% voted for?

All MP's are influenced by pressure and in trays.

Except for Farage who doesn't hold surgeries or shows up for voting.

How are you sure which party the 18% voted for?

I already replied to that point. Of course not everyone on benefits in Reform areas will vote Reform. But there will be a proportion who do.

Looking at Clacton election results we could tentatively say that 63.3% of benefit recipients in Clacton who turned out to vote voted for Reform in 2026 and 46% of benefit recipients in Clacton who turned out to vote voted for Reform in 2024.

That’s great. It still doesn’t address a chart and various articles that have been picked up and amplified.

It’s not great information but it does feed into the idea some on PIP don’t have agency to vote accordingly. Plus it doesn’t address underlying concerns from others.

First part re in trays. On who voted for what I don’t think it does anyone favours to amplify the Times approach.

Who has said people on PIP don't have the agency to vote? Not me.

Of course people have the agency to vote. The mistake from the Times, the charts and those who amplify them is an assumption on who they voted for.

It’s not known. Unless they survey specifically to 18% PIP claimants Clacton.

It has now been edited out

I was wrong, it's not edited out, just added the Times approach whatever that means.