So, my postal vote arrived for the Clacton by-election...

It's normally frowned upon on MN. Are you just being awkward - again?

What is frowned upon?

Betting? Naming a betting company?

Betting companies, with odds. I'm not being precious, just pointing out an anomaly.

Odds are regularly used in threads about elections, or even about politicians.

That doesn't mean you have to place a bet.

Labour are 1/33 to win Manchester today. Reform 66/1.

NF won Clacton with 46.2 % of the vote cast. The other main parties combined share was 52.7%. I think it doubtful that significant number of that 52.7% (Tory/Labour/Lib Dem/Green) will be migrating to Reform this time in the belief Farage is a fine fellow and the leaders of the parties they supported are actually encouraging them to vote Binface.

Throw in some potential support from the 41.6% of eligible people who didn't vote last time and I think it is far from a foregone conclusion that Reform have this in the bag.

Reform have abandoned the Manchester Mayor election and send all their resources to Clacton instead.

All except Nigel.

I hadn’t realised that the Manchester Mayoral elections were TODAY.

Runners are

• Sian Astley, Reform UK
• Geraldine Coggins, Green Party
• Bev Craig, Labour
• Phil Eckersley, Conservative
• Marcus Farmer, Independent
• Richard Kilpatrick, Liberal Democrats
• Marlon West, Restore Britain

Bookmaking doesn't really work on the real world.

It works on peoples perceptions of the real world.

If a lot of people are betting on Farage to win, then the odds on him will go down.

But lots of people betting on Farage, is not lots of people voting for Farage.

In fact now we have the measure of the man confirmed, I would be mildly taken aback if Farage hadn't stuck a few crapcoins on himself to lose. Because that would be a nice payout.

Maybe that's why he isn't campaigning ?

“Cats in a sack” made me snort.

Can't we introduce a Duel to the Death? Winner gets to be Leader, loser gets offed.

The thing about polling is this: when candidates are particularly divisive, people lie to pollsters about their intentions. We've seen it with Reform before, and we especially saw it in Trump's three presidential campaigns despite attempts in 2020 and 2024 to allow for known underestimation of Trump's appeal based on the previous campaigns.

It's no more an 'anomaly' than someone saying 'I got some really good jeans the other day in M&S and they were only £29.99' or 'I use Olaplex on my hair, it's brilliant and at the moment it's actually on offer in TK Maxx'.

It's not anomalous to mention a company and the service they provide; it's not an advert. And bookies' odds on an election result are very relevant to a thread about that election.

I agree with everything BauhausOfEliott has posted.

Committed Farage supporters won't split their vote. They will just vote for Farage.

I think a fair number of the independent candidates standing won't be serious but will serve to split the non Farage vote.

I think, in a two horse race, CB would have stood a good chance of being voted in. With that vote split because of the 'vote for anyone but Farage' mindset, there is a risk NF will be successful. And that's why Farage won't have split his own vote because the choices people see are Farage and Not Farage.

Let’s hope that the right wing candidates split the Farage vote…

I live in Manchester and the mayoral election barely seems to be getting talked about even here! I haven't had a single campaign leaflet through the letterbox, haven't seen a single poster anywhere, nothing. Even on the regional news it hasn't had much coverage at all. The regional news covered every single second of Andy Burnham's ascent to PM, but has barely mentioned the election to replace him as mayor. I'd almost have forgotten myself if I couldn't see the polling station from where I'm sitting - conveniently though it's literally opposite my house.

The fact that Reform has had to spend money discrediting the "joke" candidates is a huge win already.

This story is amusing, how to make yourself irrelevant.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/reform-mps-complain-that-farage-was-not-invited-to-social-care-reform-talks-but-5HjdfHj_2/

The fact that Reform has had to spend money discrediting the "joke" candidates is a huge win already.

But £5,000,000 goes a long way though.

I've just read through what info I can find on the other Clacton candidates. Quite a mix of rabidly right wing, single issue, eccentric (to put it mildly), Monster Raving Loony, a smattering of local people who seem genuine and well intentioned and a couple who are literally just "names" with no photo, contact details or statement of policy visible.

While I think any of them might be able to attract a handful of votes (and I wish the independent locals well) I don't believe any of them have the traction to make a significant difference, even if the small numbers each get are totted up together, apart from Binface. However, Laurence Fox may swipe some of NFs support, perhaps.

If the local independents have worked hard on their campaigns they could do OK. I think they are an attractive option for people who see their town seriously, don't like the joke, and don't like Farage either.

Farage not only needs to win. He needs to win on a scale like Burnham recently did. That means he needs to poll more than all the other candidates put together (just like Burnham did).

Falling short of that just invites an embarrassing "So how many votes did you win by ?" preface to every single answer given to a (or, given past performance) the question Farage gets to ask in the HoC.

The UK constituency does not currently require the winning candidate to secure more than 50% of the votes. But it sure as hell helps in lectures about the will of the people.

NF applied a self inflicted wound when he started this, didn't he @SerendipityJane . I think even just looking at previous numbers he is potentially in more trouble than he anticipated, which makes him thick as well as arrogant and odious.

You can boil all the adjectives down to one:

greedy.

Well, Reform can focus on Clacton now that Manchester is lost….

William Hill odds lengthened to 10/1 on Count Binface. What’s going on?