Tiers until the end of time

[runningpink]

Quickly putting this up as last thread is full

[WannaCapybara]

This what was I tried to post at the end of the last thread for those who said my mental health comment was a 'jibe'

"It's not a jibe, I'm serious.

Four people I know have killed themselves in the last year, and none of them told me, but I'd have a guess that them not being able to see the light at the end of this particular tunnel was part of what contributed to their decision."

[runningpink]

@dancemom hope you don’t mind me starting the new thread up

[StatisticallyChallenged]

On the last thread someone said we'd go to tier 0 which was no restrictions - I'd just typed a reply when the thread filled so I'll paste it here

Just to highlight, tier 0 is not normal.

Tier 0 means

• 8 people from 3 households indoors

- 15/5 outdoors

• no non essential travel to tier 3+
• international quarantine measures
• face coverings on public transport
• Indoor events restricted numbers if seated, grouped standing not allowed
• restricted numbers in stadia
• restricted numbers on places of worship, and at weddings/funerals (50)

-blended learning in colleges and universities

• adult entertainment and nightclubs closed
• WFH still advised
• hospitality may be subject to time restrictions.

It's still a fair old way from normal. If someone had said in 2019 that we'd have these restrictions in place it wouldn't be described as normality.

[runningpink]

@GoldenOmber is the actual image/table still available so you can see everything at once. Each one was a difference colour level 4 was red but can’t remember the rest.
I know it was classed as nearly normal but there was nothing nearly normal about it.

Talks off getting rid of masks and distancing from England yesterday but not even a suggestion of that for us today

[anon444877]

I remember back when the tiers were first introduced being annoyed about tier 0, now, I don't have any faith we'll even get there after all this time.

[kurtrussellsbeard]

@Scottishskifun is actually like to apologise to you because I was a bit of a dick there and your insight is interesting. My friend is a biostatistician so I did know that a bit. That being said I just get frustrated that random people online always claim to know better than these professionals. I shouldn't have been so cheeky though.

[WannaCapybara]

"Talks off getting rid of masks and distancing from England yesterday but not even a suggestion of that for us today"

I don't really know why there would be - we're clearly at least 5 months away from that (at the very least as that's when all adults should have their first dose).

[MaxNormal]

That's what I mean about the removal of hope. Tier 0 is not the light at the end of the tunnel and I sincerely hope that there's no suggestion that we remain there longer-term.

[BlueThursday]

Very much deflated today

That is all

[StatisticallyChallenged]

@kurtrussellsbeard I think part of the issue is that the actual analysis has to be massively simplified for presentation to non-stats people. Combine with the fact that most don't understand mathematical modelling and you end up with something which is an extreme outlier scenario being presented as something to base decisions on.

[MaxNormal]

kurtrussellsbeard I do have a bit of a numbers background too btw - I've got a stats degree and previously worked as a data analyst.

[tabulahrasa]

“On the last thread someone said we'd go to tier 0 which was no restrictions“

No, I was saying presumably after level 0 there’d be no restrictions, but with the proposed dates that’d be the same week as England’s no restrictions.

[kurtrussellsbeard]

So are you actually seriously claiming that they have their projections wrong and that they are all holding us hostage for no reason. That the experts are lying or inept?

I'm not trying to be goady but I can barely count so do rely on my numbers info from elsewhere.

[ssd]

I'm tired of all this
Going to have a cup of tea and a flake

[RaspberryCoulis]

Yes the mythical tier 0 which was being touted as " normal" but still meant restrictions on numbers inside, masks, social distancing and no travel?

[WannaCapybara]

Oh my god now I want a flake @ssd

[kurtrussellsbeard]

@WannaCapybara @ssd

I want ten. I joined scotnset slimming and then patched it after a day.

[WannaCapybara]

This is quite helpful I think

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/23/scotlands-stages-how-coronavirus-lockdown-will-be-eased

Useful to see that NS said the Tier 3 might have 'modifications' and not 'enhancements' as was stated on the previous thread, which suggested it might be a sort of Tier 3+.

[WannaCapybara]

I ordered the evil 800 calorie book yesterday. I did it before and threw the book away because it was so horrible

I'm currently on my second beer so I'm not sure I'm in the right frame of mind tbh...

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Useful to see that NS said the Tier 3 might have 'modifications' and not 'enhancements' as was stated on the previous thread, which suggested it might be a sort of Tier 3+.

So far, has there ever been a modification to the tiers that didn't make them stricter? Genuinely, I can't think of any examples but I can recall several "area X will be in tier Y but will not be able to do

[MaxNormal]

So are you actually seriously claiming that they have their projections wrong and that they are all holding us hostage for no reason. That the experts are lying or inept?

My view is that the SG is being ideologically driven as they're very taken by the zero covid idea or at least as close to elimination as possible, and also their most trusted advisors are largely social scientists who share this vision.

[anon444877]

It's obvious that the key modification is travel restrictions to be stricter than old not adhered to tier system.

[GoldenOmber]

From today’s document. If full vaccine rollout and virus no longer a threat to public health isn’t enough to ditch ‘protective measures’ and border closures, what exactly is?

[GoldenOmber]

Hmm, don’t think the picture uploaded there.

[ssd]

@WannaCapybara

Oh my god now I want a flake *@ssd*

It was great. And I had a caramel log