Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.
General COVID Info
The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.
Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.
The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.
Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).
Spread of COVID
It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.
It can be spread with no symptoms.
It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).
Updates
As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.
I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!
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Preppers
Prepping for a pandemic...4
995 replies
wheresmymojo · 14/02/2020 13:59
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