Greece part II

[Hullygully]

I would be very grateful if we could keep this about Greece, and those (two) who want to dance up and down jibing at Claig and calling her a fool and a kremlinbot and an anti-semite, start their own thread for that purpose.

Cheers

[claig]

Donald Tusk, President of the European Commision, has just tweeted

"Donald Tusk ?@eucopresident · 1h1 hour ago
Realistic proposal from Athens needs to be matched by realistic proposal from creditors on debt sustainability to create win-win situation"

Looking good for a deal.

Nigel Lawson, on the Daily Politics just said that the whole thing will never be solved until Greece exits, even if not now, one day.

He says it will require a Greek default and says that for Angela Merkel to say this is unheard of is not right because Germany has defaulted twice in the past 100 years, France has defaulted and near enough the only country which hasn't defaulted is us.

He says one day Greece will be out.

That means that the grand political union project of the EU will probably fail in the future, in my opinion.

[Isitmebut]

As pro Greece posters bailout no matter what cost, who were clearly quite capable of dishing out their own insults, have complained to Mum, then let them be the 'informative' voice of Mumsnet (at least until Monday), as far as I'm concerned.

Factually all that was worth saying pre Sunday is within the last pages of the first post/thread IMO.

Putins poster will get a living wage rise after this.

[claig]

Good article by Professor Jeffrey Sachs

"The case for offering a country a fresh financial start is both economic and moral. This makes it difficult for many bankers to understand, as their industry knows no morality – only the bottom line."
...
Merkel must now take a stance that is the opposite of the one her finance minister has pursued to date. Schäuble is undoubtedly one of Europe’s towering political figures, but his strategy for saving the eurozone by pushing Greece out was misguided. Merkel now must step in to save Greece as part of the eurozone – and that means easing the country’s debt burden. To do otherwise at this stage would create an irreparable split between Europe’s rich and poor, and powerful and weak.

Some – in particular, the ever-cynical bankers – argue that it is too late for Europe to save itself. It is not.
...
That idea of an ethical approach to the Greek crisis might sound absurd to readers of the financial press, and many politicians will undoubtedly consider it naive. Yet most European citizens could embrace it as a sensible solution. Europe rose from the rubble of World War II because of the vision of statesmen; now it has been brought to the verge of collapse by the everyday vanities, corruption, and cynicism of bankers and politicians. It is time for statesmanship to return – for the sake of current and future generations in Europe and the world."


www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greek-crisis-germany-debt-relief-tsipras-merkel-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2015-07

[Hullygully]

Isitme, as per I have no idea what you're on about.

Tusk interesting.

[Hullygully]

Agree with Sachs.

[claig]

Open letter to Angela Merkel from Sachs, Piketty, two other professors and a politician

"Together we urge Chancellor Merkel and the Troika to consider a course correction, to avoid further disaster and enable Greece to remain in the eurozone. Right now, the Greek government is being asked to put a gun to its head and pull the trigger. Sadly, the bullet will not only kill off Greece’s future in Europe. The collateral damage will kill the Eurozone as a beacon of hope, democracy and prosperity, and could lead to far-reaching economic consequences across the world."

www.thenation.com/article/austerity-has-failed-an-open-letter-from-thomas-piketty-to-angela-merkel/

I never understood it before, but it will not be easy to undo and end the European Union or even the Euro. The pain and suffering and financial implications and political consequences would be enormous for all of Europe and even possbly the world.

In the short term I think they will keep Greece in, because the alternative is unimaginable for Europe and no one knows where it could lead.

[DoctorTwo]

Steve Keen on BBC News saying he was hoping for a 'no' vote. I doubt very much he'll be seen on there again. :o

[Hullygully]

Humanitarian aid may be an acceptable face..

[Alyosha]

Greece news this morning seems to be that a bailout deal with harsher austerity than the ??i vote has been proposed, with a promise to "discuss" debt relief.

Vindication for Merkel & poorer Eurozone countries who weren't happy with giving Greece a blank cheque.

I hope the EU really pushes Greece to reform tax collection & stamp out corruption. More than anything else this should set Greece up for future success.

[claig]

Wait for the final deal and read through the spin. It ain't over yet!

[claig]

The bootom line is that Tsipras will get a better deal than hhe was offered before he called the referendum. That was what he wanted to achieve and that is what he is likely to get.

[ExitPursuedByABear]

Signing in. Nothing to contribute as I am fick.

But interested.

[claig]

And if he gets that, it will open the door for Podemos and all real left wing parties to try the same thing, which is a strategic defeat for the bankers.

[Alyosha]

It depends doesn't it - he appears to have also got aid package. Good deal for all sides - not debt relief, so Merkel saves face as does Tsipras. I think my guess was closest (I think I guessed limited debt relief spun as a win for both sides).

Nowhere near being a humiliation for Merkel, and I imagine the prospect of years of capital controls will probably put off a lot of other parties from trying the same thing, especially as Spain/Portugal/Italy are better able to service their debts.

[claig]

'not debt relief'

It will be debt relief all in but name. The equivalent.

'I think I guessed limited debt relief spun as a win for both sides'
You guessed at the 11th hour, but you called it close.

"Nowhere near being a humiliation for Merkel, and I imagine the prospect of years of capital controls will probably put off a lot of other parties from trying the same thing, especially as Spain/Portugal/Italy are better able to service their debts."

When the dust settles, with the benefit of hindsight, it will be recognised as a victory over the bankers and Merkel which will encourage all of the real European left and right. Remember that Tsakalatos is a PPE, so Syriza could never achieve what the real hard left wanted (a toatl end to austerity). The PPE salvaged austerity for the bankers, but the left have won concessions which will encourager les autres. The game will now move to Spain and Podemos with their election against the Establishment parties and then to Italy and Portugal and then to France in its 2017 election.

The PPE has held the EU together for some more time, he bought time for tha bankers, but in the end the stresses have still not disappeared.

[claig]

Sorry, should be

It will be debt relief in all but name

[Alyosha]

I'm not sure, I think the image of Greece agreeing to austerity harsher than those the Greek people rejected (regardless of debt relief) is an image that will linger in the minds of many.

I also can't imagine much popular desire to be limited to cash withdrawals of 60 euros a day and havoc in the tourism sector, which is key to Spain.

As always, I think you're being a little contrary - anti-austerity in Greece which actually needs it as it can't service its debts, pro-austerity in the UK when we can. We can service our debts because of our strong institutions (that you dislike so much!), big tax base and the fact that money tends to go where it should, rather into the pockets of those in the know. Tends being the operative word.

What Greece really needs is root & branch reform, so that its institutions and government works for its people. When Greeks pay tax, that tax should not be skimmed, or use to pay for public sector non-jobs - it should be used for real social projects and real public services that deliver benefits to the Greek people.

That's the root of the Greek crisis and it must also be the root of the Greek recovery.

[claig]

This is from the former editor of the Daily Telegraph and the biographer of Thatcher writing in the real Conservative magazine, not a modernised one, the Spectator, edited by the excellent real Conservative, Fraser Nelson.

He states what a great victory for real socialsm Syriza's defiance and referendum victory has been because it is a defeat for the bankers and a victory for liberty.

"Why the Greek No is a great moment for socialism

Even if everything goes wronger still, the Greek No vote is a great victory for the left. Until now, the left has not mounted a serious challenge to the claims of the EU. It is extraordinary how it has been cowed. The single currency, especially a single currency without a ‘social dimension’ and political union, is the classic ‘bankers’ ramp’ against which the left always used to inveigh. It is a huge collective device to put banks before workers, if necessary reducing the latter to poverty. Greece is an almost perfect example of this, with the rescue designed to save European banks, not Greek people.
...
Anti-‘austerity’ candidates like François Hollande in France have won from time to time, but they have never dared point out the EU authorship of the austerity, and so they have quickly buckled. Yet the eurozone has become a scene of class war, and only Syriza has been bold enough to fight it almost full on."

www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/the-spectators-notes/9578592/charles-moores-notes-why-the-greek-no-is-a-great-moment-for-socialism/

[Hullygully]

yes, there is a reason that French is the language of diplomacy. There has been some slippery monkeying and no mistake. A face-saver and electorate-presenter all round.

[claig]

'I think the image of Greece agreeing to austerity harsher than those the Greek people rejected (regardless of debt relief) is an image that will linger in the minds of many.'

I think that is the image the PPE who replaced Varoufakis was put in place to deliver. But the debt concessions will outweigh that to close observers of what really went on. The media will say the Greeks were bowed, but I don't think it will turn out that way.

'I also can't imagine much popular desire to be limited to cash withdrawals of 60 euros a day and havoc in the tourism sector, which is key to Spain.'

I don't think the bankers can pull the same trick too often because eventually the real left will challenge them.

'I think you're being a little contrary'

I like Farage and Jeremy Corbyn, Thatcher and Varoufakis, because I like freedom over slavery, the people over the elites and the people over the bankers. Nothing contrary about that. The people are all in it together, it is us against them, left and right unite against the elites and the bankers.

That is why Charles Moore, former editor of the Daily Telegraph and Thatcher biographer, said that Syriza's referendum victory was a great victory for socialism, because he is with the people too.

[Hullygully]

Greece had to agree to being punished, it dared to say No. Let us see how the full deal plays out.

[Viviennemary]

What I don't get is that they submitted the proposals to the EU and then asked parliament to vote on them. Surely it should have been the other way round even to my simple mind. I expect that even if they get the deal there will be another vote on it. They're looking more like a bunch of chancers ever day. I wouldn't lend them a bean or even a Drachma.

[Alyosha]

I think that is the image the PPE who replaced Varoufakis was put in place to deliver. But the debt concessions will outweigh that to close observers of what really went on. The media will say the Greeks were bowed, but I don't think it will turn out that way.

Whatever you say, the deal means Greece is delving deeper than the deal they rejected. And the aid package is nowhere near the debt relief Greece was demanding. They were demanding debt relief so that they didn't have to make cuts, remember.

I don't think the bankers can pull the same trick too often because eventually the real left will challenge them.

You think capital controls are a "trick"? Capital controls were vital to stop wealthy Greeks pulling money out of the country and forcing Eurozone taxpayers to fund capital flight.

I like Farage and Jeremy Corbyn, Thatcher and Varoufakis, because I like freedom over slavery, the people over the elites and the people over the bankers. Nothing contrary about that. The people are all in it together, it is us against them, left and right unite against the elites and the bankers.

Not what I'm referring to. I was referring to your appreciation of Osborne's budget.

Charles Moore is a socialist now? Are you a socialist?

It was a nice expression of public desire, but it has not led to what they wanted - full debt relief and an end to austerity.

[claig]

Hullygully, it is still a great day for the left and the people if Greece does get offered debt relief in all but name. The left took them on. It couldn't beat the bankers fully, but I think it has made them blink.

As Charles Moore writes

"Most Euroscepticism in recent years has been dominated by the right. Rather galling that a government of the left has been the first to throw down the gauntlet."

[claig]

'You think capital controls are a "trick"? '

I think the ECB denying liquidity to the Greek banks was a banker trick to try and intimidate the people and yet the Greek people still stuck two fingers up to them and voted "Oxi".

As Charles Moore writes

"5 July will be one of those great moments in socialist history, celebrated in song and story, and used to inspire future generations."

Alyosha, I thought you were a socialist, what kind of socialist are you? A Blairite PPE one?

'Are you a socialist?'

I am People's Army - both socialist and capitalist, both Jeremey Corbyn and Thatcher - common sense.