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Aibu to be hopeful about the people’s vote?

(173 Posts)
shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:20:03

And cross everything I have that anyone vaguely interested in remaining signs it? Don’t know how accurate this is but vince cable tweeted from the march earlier and said 60 per cent now in favour of remaining. No idea of the accuracy of those stats (or any, stats were wrong in June 2016) but surely remaining is better than this shit storm?

FoggyDay58 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:23:25

YANBU!

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:24:35

If I could attach a link to the petition I would! How do I do it?

YeOldeTrout Sat 23-Mar-19 15:25:25

Don't get hopeful if being disappointed will make you miserable. It's too far out of our control.

We always heard that before 23.6.2016 "everyone thought Remain would win". But Google news search, I'm getting mostly 'Leave far ahead in polls!" in early 2016 news stories. Heck if I know whether to trust polls. Politicians seem determined to ignore them.

Tomtontom Sat 23-Mar-19 15:26:23

Whilst I share your hope, I'm not optimistic.

If Bercow allows a vote* on such an amendment, then Labour will whip for it, but there will still be certain MPs vote against it - Hoey, Mann etc. I'd be amazed if the Conservatives would whip for it, so even with those that will ignore the party line the amendment will not get the votes to pass. So that's relying on the government putting forward such a motion, and that is still very unlikely.

I hope I'm wrong.

* This is why an amendment shouldn't have been put forward two weeks ago, it risked the chance of a vote not being allowed at the right time.

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:27:26

I suppose, ye olde, that it’s the first bit of positive news for remainers in a while. Im kind of basking in it because it feels better than the abject resignation I usually feel. And I hate myself for being resigned to something so life changingly awful.

ScreamingValenta Sat 23-Mar-19 15:28:03

Here's a link

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

YANBU

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:30:58

Tomtontom - I confess that I understand bercow refusing to allow the same deal to be tabled (makes sense) but I got fucking lost on all these bloody amendments and wish the would just say what they mean and the factual or legal scenarios they are voting on. Last week we had about 4 amendments in one night, I was out with other lawyers and none of us could work out what the hell they meant.

Are yo basically saying that, without a majority in the house for a people’s vote, there will be no people’s vote? What if the petition hits 17.4 (like Andrea leadsom sarcastically said, surely then people would have to vote against their personal views? And if 17.4 does that, why can’t, say, 10 million, accepting that an entire viewpoint from the electorate will not partake in petitions?

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:31:21

Thank you screaming.

BoneyBackJefferson Sat 23-Mar-19 15:33:30

shitholiday2018

Doesn't mean a thing unless May allows a second referendum.

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:34:33

Boney, I totally get that, but I suppose I’m asking whether anyone else is hopeful in order to establish whether I’m just being desperate and utterly unrealistic.

Alsohuman Sat 23-Mar-19 15:41:27

I don’t think May’s going to get much choice, having alienated most of her own party on Wednesday. Conservatives are a ruthless lot. If they could get rid of Thatcher, May stands no chance.

scaryteacher Sat 23-Mar-19 15:44:00

What happens if the vote is Leave again? Will you want the best of three or to keep going until you get the result you want?

Alsohuman Sat 23-Mar-19 15:50:41

If there’s another referendum I’d expect it not to be rigged, to only be binding if the winning side achieved at least 55% of the vote and for leavers not to be promised unicorns and the moon on a stick. If there’s still a leave victory, I’ll accept it.

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:50:44

Scaryteaxher, if people were so stupid second time round, in possession of more facts, less spin and significantly fewer outright lies, then I’d accept it. I don’t feel the last one was conducted properly by the leave campaigns, including but not limited to the utter drivel written on the side of buses. I believe therefore that the results were skewed as people were misled.

If people genuienly are that stupid and vote the same way again, I’ll be frustrated, upset, worried for the future and all that, but ultimately believe in democracy. It would have to be a 50/50 vote again though, even though I feel it should never have been a situation where such constitutional change could occur with such an even split. You need more of a mjoarity to make such major change or you get this kind of utter chaos.

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:53:42

Also human, but do you mean55 per cent to reverse the current status quo (leaving on 12 april) and remain or to essentially have another leave vote with a 55 threshold? The lattter wouldn’t be fair as it’s a rerun on different terms, though I totally agree in principle that this should have been the basis of the first vote. I actually think 60 per cent should have been the minimum - a very clear majority.

Alsohuman Sat 23-Mar-19 15:57:47

The latter wouldn’t be fair by your definition because many people who voted last time are now dead and others who weren’t old enough to vote now are. Same question for me - leave or stay.

BoneyBackJefferson Sat 23-Mar-19 15:59:24

Alsohuman

Due to the failed take over attempt May is bullet proof at the moment as she is protected for a set amount of days.

Besides
Who would take such a poisoned chalice? Its pretty much career death for anyone that takes over.

But rumour has it that she will put forward 7 possibilities to parliament, one of which is another referendum.

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 15:59:56

Id be happier with that! I think there would have to be a crazy number of variables though including the dead deal, no deal and remain. I can’t imagine being able to put any other deal on the ballot because it’s too uncertain, but I’m sure JRM would argue for that.

shitholiday2018 Sat 23-Mar-19 16:01:51

Sorry that was to also human. What on earth could the 7 be?

MrsDeanWinchester75 Sat 23-Mar-19 16:02:01

Didn't take long for yet another Brexit thread to say the people who voted leave are stupid.

BoneyBackJefferson Sat 23-Mar-19 16:02:43

shitholiday2018

if people were so stupid second time round, in possession of more facts, less spin and significantly fewer outright lies, then I’d accept it. I don’t feel the last one was conducted properly by the leave campaigns, including but not limited to the utter drivel written on the side of buses. I believe therefore that the results were skewed as people were misled.

Here is a thought maybe remain could actually put forward a campaign that was based on the issues.

Bluntness100 Sat 23-Mar-19 16:03:09

The motion for a second referendum is one of the seven the government has put forward for Wednesday and they will not whip against any of the seven motions. There is also revoke, no deal, customs union etc. None of them are whipped by the government, I'm not sure about labour.

Angelf1sh Sat 23-Mar-19 16:05:06

Sadly, I think you probably are being unreasonable. I don’t think it’ll come to anything, as much as I wish it would. I fear we are headed to a no deal exit.

Frazzled2207 Sat 23-Mar-19 16:06:21

Well the combination of the March today and the giant petition have given me a small grain of hope. I really hope the indicative votes thing bring some clarity this week. I'm so depressed about it all.

Today I was at a pretty small anti-Brexit demo in Manchester. There were a few hundred there and the atmosphere was great.

There was also a Brexiter with a placard who was not getting much attention at all.

But there were tens of thousands of shoppers around who didn't seem arsed either wayconfused. My social media feed is full of remain stuff but a suspiciously high number of my friends don't seem to have anything to say at all.

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