More fuckwittery from Eva Wiseman, Observer

[ConstanzeMozart]

fuckwittery
the EHRC ‘insisting’ on single-sex toilets excluding trans people.
Well, only if they try to use the one for the wrong sex.
There are also some bingo points including trans people being excluded from public life, and women who don’t look feminine being harassed in the Ladies.

As was the high court judge too I suppose? 😂

That's why you conveniently still haven't answered the question about why he made his judgement.

@Baileyonice there’s no point. Not only do you not understand my answers, you don’t even understand your own.

The judge was deciding a different question, about lawfulness, on a different issue. It was also pre-FWS so I don’t know if the decision would be the same today or not.

You talk about ‘sample size’. We are not discussing a sample. You told me the full trans population and we used that to get the denominator. We then used the full sexual offender prisoner numbers for the numerator.

No sampling was done.

You are utterly clueless about the statistical point you seem to think is your trump card.

The judge was deciding a different question, about lawfulness, on a different issue. It was also pre-FWS so I don’t know if the decision would be the same today or not.

We both know the relevant point being made is statistical significance but by all means keep pretending that isn't the context of this discussion.

"You talk about ‘sample size’. We are not discussing a sample. You told me the full trans population and we used that to get the denominator. We then used the full sexual offender prisoner numbers for the numerator."

"We then used the full sexual offender prisoner numbers for the numerator."

Which is a small sample size …confirmed by a high court judge.

"The court heard that in 2019 there were 163 transgender prisoners in England and Wales, 81 of whom had been convicted of one or more sexual offences. Of the 163, 34 were held in women’s prisons.
Between 2016 and 2019, a total of 97 sexual assaults were recorded in women’s prisons, of which seven appeared to be committed by transgender prisoners without a GRC. It is not known whether any were committed by transgender women with a GRC but the number of transgender prisoners with a GRC across all jails is thought to be in single figures.

Transgender Americans can choose gender on passport, state department says
Read more

Holroyde said the statistics were too low"

@Baileyonice This is Dunning-Kruger.

We’ve done the actual statistical test you wanted and it showed up the wrong way for you.

Anyway. If you truly think it’s no more than chance, go and look at other countries’ data.

If you are right you should find about half have TW sexual offence rates below the female one and about half above it.

@Baileyonice

OK, here’s a version you might understand.

Australia has a pop of 26 million. Geelong has a pop of 130,000.

Imagine in one year 97 people died of poisoning in Geelong, while the rate for other similar sized towns in Australia was less than 1 per year (total ex Geelong for the whole of Australia of 150).

How likely is that to be just random year-to-year variation?

Or we say that something is going on in Geelong?

It's hard to put a figure on the actual number of trans people.
"Trans :

A term to describe people whose gender is not the same as, or does not sit comfortably with, the sex they were assigned at birth.

Stonewall uses ‘trans’ as an umbrella term including (but not limited to) transgender, transsexual, genderqueer, genderfluid, non-binary, agender, trans man, trans woman, trans masculine and trans feminine."

That right there is from the Stonewall website.

I wasn't assigned male sex, it was observed at birth (I am hecka old so I think mother dearest didn't know my sex until shortly after she gave birth). So firstly, I don't have male gender for a start, even if that is a thing (not sure if it is or not).

And let's say male gender is a thing, for the sake of argument. If it is, I don't want it. It's probably a bunch of sexist old bollocks based on not crying, being the main breadwinner and wearing badly fitting jeans (if I had to guess).

I'm some kind of agender, I think. The agender subtype I most closely identify with can be summed up thusly 'gender is a bunch of tedious specious sexist bollocks that I want no part of please and thank you'.

So I'm trans, according to the Stonewalls themselves - who knew?

It has been amusing to watch, though, so thanks to @GeneralPeter for that.

@Baileyonice If the numbers are too low to prove anything, (which I don't actually think is the case) then you are unable to prove that TIMs sexually offend at a rate equal to or less than women. So, since TIMs are male, our risk assessment will continue to be that they pose at least as much risk as other men ie a very high risk.

So, since TIMs are male, our risk assessment will continue to be that they pose at least as much risk as other men ie a very high risk.

Not according to a high court judge. But you do you.

Your trouncing seems to be really stinging. Poor you.
#sadtimes

What about the voyeurs? 100% of voyeurs and exhibitionists in prison are male. Is 100% definitive enough?

Does a man saying he is a transwoman to enter a toilet make him any less male? Because men have been doing that to justify going into women’s toilets to commit crimes. How do we stop that @Baileyonice ?

We have single sex spaces for reasons of privacy and dignity, primarily; as well as to provide protection from predation, overt voyeurism and/or physical assault.

Males are not female, and in our society females have established protections that honour the needs for the dignity and privacy of their sex in public situations of vulnerability or in sporting competition.

You are using a judge as authority on statistics?

Fucking hell, Bailey, read the things you cite first. It will save you repeated embarrassment.

Firstly, the case is about a specific question that isn't precisely what is being discussed. You've muddled different things.

But in so far as justices Holroyd and Swift compare sexual offences between transgender people and males in general, here is what they say:

"the statistical evidence shows that the proportion of transgender prisoners who have been convicted of one or more sexual offences is substantially greater than the corresponding proportions of non-transgender men and women prisoners"

Substantially greater than men prisoners (and women prisoners too).

You've been trying to use this to show me that the TIM rate is the same as females, or is unknowable, and to show Henrietta that it's not greater than men in general.

(From what I can tell, the judges' reference to "transgender prisoners" includes both TIMs and TIFs. In other words, even when you add females into a pool with TIMs in it, the overall sexual offence rate for that pool remains higher than for the male-prisoner pool).

https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Admin/2021/1746.html

We don't demand that everyone uses pronouns based on sex, and cry "bigot" and go "no contact" if they don't.

There is also a long long history of social convention. I am not against questioning that, and pushing boundaries, but it should be done cautiously, because the downsides are not always immediately apparent. The contrast between the slow and careful societal changes of attitude towards gay people and their requests, and the sudden imposition of so-called progressive attitudes regarding trans people, is stark. Trans activists have pushed to far and too fast, and are unfortunately in danger of a big swing the other way. Too far, in demanding that women give up their necessary protections, and too fast in that they nearly got away with forcing change (sell-id) in about a decade with no debate.