To blazes with "statistical risk" anyway. One ten-year-old girl sexually assaulted in a women-only lavatory, by a male who could not be excluded from that lavatory, is one ten-year-old girl too many. And almost any predatory male, whatever hormonal treatment he may or may not be taking, is likely to be stronger than a ten-year-old female – or one his own age who is not a boxer or weight-lifter, or an elderly one, or one with arthritis, come to that.
The point has always been that if transwomen were allowed into women-only spaces, any man who claimed to be trans, however fleetingly he made that claim, also had to be allowed in. So the difference between a sweet nice kind harmless oppressed sad little trans male of fifteen, and Paula Stanton aged over sixty, (look him up for information about how sweet etc he is) has been made irrelevant for so long as merely claiming to be trans has been the magic passport to the women's hospital wards (mental wards in particular), prisons, and so on, rape crisis centres and women's refuges a bonus for perverted males.
And it's likely Paula Stanton, who is clearly a bit confused in many ways, may in fact believe he is female at least some of the time, for all he can still beat the meat at women to upset them. There are not a few who don't hold such a belief even for an instant, but can still make the claim in pursuit of their own sexual gratification.
The amusing thing is that TRAs, allies and fellow-travellers are finally, ten or twenty or more years late, realising the fact women have known all along: that not all trans-identifying people are lovely cuddly bunnies who just want to pee in peace. The way they are manifesting this realisation is by asserting that any trans person who is a violent thug is "not really trans": hoax-trans, fake trans. This assertion is not the "gotcha" they seem to think it is. Sigh. In the end they may grow up and catch up, with luck.
On a slightly different point, I would like to have actual data about what the risk is to transwomen using a men's public lavatory: not self-reported but actual police data. Do such data exist showing the incidence of assault by men against the transwomen in lavatories, and what the assaults are? If all an assault consists of is the same assault that might be suffered by a butch woman (or me wearing an anorak) in the women's, that is, someone saying "Oy, are you in the right loo?" and needing to explain that yes, she or he is, I don't feel it is in quite the same category as the assaults on women by men. Drag artists always used to be able to use the gents, after all. Barry Humphries was quite amusing on the subject.