Gorton & Denton by-election thread

[fromorbit]

This dramatic byelection to be held on Thursday 26 February 2026 is looking likely to have a confrontation over sex and gender with the Conservative's just announced candidate Charlotte Cadden being a trustee for Sex Matters. Another factor is with a large Muslim population in the area the group Muslim Vote has endorsed the Green candidate despite one of their aims to be remove teaching about LGBT issues from schools when religious parents object. Obviously in conflict with Green policy.

Candidates

• Angeliki Stogia will be the Labour candidate in this year's election. Ms Stogia moved to the UK from Greece in the 1990s and has served as a councillor in Whalley Range since 2004.
• Reform UK have selected GB News presenter Matt Goodwin as their candidate. He studied at the University of Salford and went on to have a career as a commentator and academic.
• The Liberal Democrats have selected local campaigner Jackie Pearcey as their candidate. She lives in the constituency and previously won 2,600 votes at the 2017 elections.
• The Green Party have put forward Hannah Spencer to stand for them at the by-election. She is a plumber by trade she is from Bolton and has lived in Greater Manchester all her life, and is based in Hale where she is a councilor. She doesn't believe biology is important in deciding gender.
• The Conservative Party have chosen former detective chief inspector Charlotte Cadden as their candidate. She served for 30 years in GMP and London's Met.
• The Re-join EU Party have announced that Joseph O'Meachair will be their candidate. He is a member of the party's executive committee and lives in the North West.

Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party)
The Social Democratic Party announced on Friday 30 January that the current SDP North West Chair Sebastian Moore will be running as their candidate in the by-election.

Nicholas Brendan Buckley Advance UK

He is a British charity worker and political figure who previously represented Reform UK.

Dan Clarke is the Libertarian Party candidate

Sir Oink A-Lot
Sir Oink A-Lot is The Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/parl.gorton-and-denton.by.2026-02-26/gorton-and-denton/

The just announced Conservative candidate has serious form:
Former detective chief inspector Charlotte Cadden is a lesbian served for 30 years as a Police Officer, both for Greater Manchester Police and the Metropolitan Police - Charlotte is a trustee of the charity Sex Matters, a member of the LGB Alliance Business Forum. She coordinates the Women’s Rights Network in Greater Manchester, In 2023, she set up the national Police SEEN.

Galloway's Worker's Party have now decided not to stand. They may have attracted a bunch of Muslim votes which will now go elsewhere.

Any hustings are going to be rather interesting.

The greens are probably doing what george galloway did and have several leaflets depending on the street. Legalising drugs and TRA wont be mentioned in every leaflet.

Is 'postal voting' and issue in this area?

I think it could be tricky for all three main candidates:

Labour: Starmer

Reform: demographically not the best seat for them, big Muslim population plus left wing graduates who will be resistant to Reform

Greens: not certain the Muslim vote will swing as massively behind them as they need, not enough of the downwardly mobile left wing graduates who are their real core vote in cities

It will probably come down to turnout in the different parts of the seat, and a slim majority for whoever wins. My gut says it's the Greens' to lose, but that depends on how much Labour collapses.

(Caerphilly was a straw in the wind, but Plaid there had an exceptionally high profile candidate who was a very popular local councillor and had been the Plaid candidate at every Westminster or Senedd election for decades)

I've been keeping an eye on Goodwin for years, and have met him. I'm not entirely convinced he was the ideal candidate - he's got a history of spicy takes that Labour/Greens are mining to portray him as a Hitler level bigot - but he's very high energy and determined, and I imagine will do better the more voters he gets to meet. Also, if Reform had wanted to go for someone more local, their most high profile Greater Manchester figure is Simon Danczuk, who, let's say, has some baggage.

I would love Goodwin to win.

We have recognised Palestine as a state. That was one of our last trump cards and it did nothing. It is like they still think the British Empire is a thing and the Middle Easterners are just waiting to listen to us.

It is obvious to anyone observing the UK has very little leverage either way. It is an insane obsession. If you are against the UK being involved with any country which has done violent stuff that is idealistic, but reasonable. If you are obsessed with Israel more than our links with US, China, the Saudis, UAE etc etc as many left wingers are it is very telling.

However it is its own reward. Nothing is more likely get people to vote Reform than the idea a candidate in a British election cares more about Gaza than Gorton.

If the Greens thought that they had a chance of winning then Polanski who is a Mancunian would be standing.

I would be quite torn as a right voter, between Reform and the Tory who is vocally GC and an ex-senior police officer.
Much as I'd love a proponent of women's rights versus TWAW to win, the Tory brand is toast, and if local polling shows her trailing significantly behind Goodwin, my vote would end up going to him.
My thinking is that both right parties are going to be GC in their policy pitch to the voters at the GE.
And what matters most is stopping the Greens snatching a win here, and dealing a real blow to Starmer.

Polanski is gay and Jewish. That would not play well with large parts of their target vote.

f it's anything like the Sultana (LGBTQ socialist rather than social conservative, which is Corbyn) faction of Your Party, it's to de-recognise Israel and cut off trade links

Thanks for this answer.

Polanski is Jewish. Is he really behind complete abandonment of Israel and failure to recognise it as a state?

I probably shouldn't be surprised - after all he did try and part women from their money by claiming he could increase breast size via hypnosis. Fairly clear self-interest is his main driver but it would be an appalling betrayal of the Jewish community.

It's not just about postal voting. Self-styled community leaders will get block votes out for the favoured candidate.

I'm not convinced that Polanski is any less of a grifter than Farage.

John Harris talks to some people in Gorton and Is Dismayed

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/01/labour-gorton-and-denton-byelection-reform-fury

I don't think they have a realistic chance of winning. It depends on how much of a protest left wing voters want to make against Labour.

A lot depends on how much this narrative has traction and how afraid of Reform voters are.

Labour will gain votes from an anti-Reform stance. It's literally the only way they will get votes! Their biggest issue is to get the vote out. But anti-Reform is reasonably motivated.

But that fear of Reform getting in, shouldn't be under estimated.

So this election is really about disaffection and how much belief there is in the greens as a serious party.

I would say there is a certain amount of racial tension within the constituency too, so again this is definitely going to be a factor.

I have to say that the idea that Muslim voters will vote based on Gaza ahead of concerns about racism within the local community and from Reform is more of a stretch than I think people give credit for. It's a narrative people want to push but I am not convinced on the ground it's a driving issue in a local election even a by-election. Gaza is an issue that's more likely to motivate young white voters than Muslim voters imho.

Leaflet wars already on.

Can't wait till the Lib Dem leaflets drop.

It’s a cold Thursday morning in January on a suburban street corner in Burnage, in the western part of the constituency of Gorton and Denton. A gaggle of men and women are huddled together, handing out clipboards and party literature. This is Labour’s campaign to hold the seat in the 26 February by-election. The activists start working their way down the terraces, knocking doors and greeting voters. Meanwhile, Green activists are travelling down the other side of the street, making loud barbs to their Labour opponents. The Green leaflets have a big chart that argues they are in second place, the party to beat Reform. The leaflets also a mention Andy Burnham, whose absence voters keep bringing up on the doorstep.
A Gorton and Denton resident is holding both the Labour and Green leaflets. “Who am I meant to believe?” she asks.
https://archive.is/ed6t5

Yes, I like him, he’s smart and connects with ordinary people. He’s also very across his brief and back up his comments with data not just rhetoric.

Can't wait till the Lib Dem leaflets drop.

"Labour can't win here!!!!" (Picture of inaccurate bar chart)

I can easily imagine some very motivated muslim voters who would ignore ( for the time being) the TRA and single sex issues in order to achieve their desired 'Gaza' goal.

Though with the Rafah crossing shortly due to re-open and the prospect of a total ceasefire along with the demotion of Hamas, how wil the Gaza vote shape-shift itself? When the 'genocide' has stopped - then what?

Yes, some of their interpretations of election statistics here are creative, to say the least.

Nicely done 😁

It must really annoy the Green party that Trump was the one of the main factors in getting things moving towards ceasefire and ending the killing in Gaza.

Over the years I've had lots of leaflets like this from the lib dems, saying only they could beat the tories in my constituency. They have only ever come third, a long way behind the tories and labour.

Don't expect realism from a party that thinks men can magically become women.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/maps/choropleth/identity?oa=E00030259

You can have a good look at info about the area there

Oooh output areas

I think electoral commission do maps as well but I doubt my phone will cope with loading

Thanks for posting this, a very interesting read.

Thanks fromorbit that spiked article is really good.

This bit echoes what we've been saying on here!

While there may well be British Muslim voters in Gorton and Denton who wish to punish Labour and stop Reform, they should be aware of the fundamental misalignment with the party they’re being asked to vote for. On social and cultural issues at least, there is always going to be an unbridgeable gulf between the Greens and practising Muslims.